Indiana Carroll and the Quarterback Crusade

For a while, the Seahawks' 2011 campaign was just one long draft discussion. Who are we getting at QB next year - that's all we cared about. Then the running game and defense suddenly emerged and started making a regular season out of it. That was fun, and hugely heartening. 2011 proved more informative and promising than we had expected.

But now, with the 49ers loss, we're swinging back into the holding pattern despite having a little football still left to play. And with that reversion, some shelved concerns are coming back with a vengeance.

A lot of us don't trust Pete Carroll to get our future quarterback right. I confess I don't.

And this despite Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider having done what most of us would have considered impossible: not only dump an entire roster whose financial footprint made it nigh undumpable, but replace most of that roster with talented high-ceiling starters - within two offseasons.

Wait...lockout...one and a half offseasons!

The rational sliver of my mind says, "What more do these guys need to prove to you?" They've validated themselves at virtually every position, spectacularly in some cases (Kam Chancellor! Doug Baldwin! ZOMG RICHARD SHERMAN!!!!!!!1!11). But when it comes to the cornerstone of quarterback, we're tetchy. Anxiously rehashing the debates. Wringing out the talking points without mercy. Flooding Rob Staton with page hits. All the signs of someone who needs a lot more reassurance.

The Mallett Ultimatum, Part 1

Yep. I'm driving this bandwagon.

Just to be clear, I don't believe in grabbing any old first-round QB just because he's first-round. Plenty of teams have busted with that mentality. I also don't believe that he's an instant fix to every problem on a football team, nor that other picks can't help the situation. And I don't believe in throwing a rookie QB to the wolves on a team that can't afford him one iota of protection.

So when I say that I consider Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett the most likely-to-succeed prospect in this draft, it's for good reason. I've analyzed the guy, compared him to the other options, and emerged convinced that selecting this guy will bring bigger returns than any other. Sure, my judgment is fallible, but at some point you have to pick a belief and stick to it. I believe that Mallett has what it takes to win in the pros, and that he has it right now. The other guys do not, and it's questionable whether they ever will.

So here's my take on why Seattle should rate this guy very highly on its draft board. In the interest of sparing my generous readers from having to read essays, I've broken it down into three parts. Enjoy part one, in which I take a look mostly at Mallett himself.

(You might also appreciate the more technical scouting report of Kip Earlywine over at Seahawks Draft Blog.)

SackSEER and Seattle's Pass Rush Prospects

I wrote earlier about SackSEER, the Football Outsiders model that tries to project the NFL success of college pass rushers. It uses four specific factors to do this: short shuttle time, indicative of agility; vertical leap, which can show potential for burst and explosiveness off the line; per-sack college productivity; and college games missed. The models is restricted to 4-3 defensive ends and 3-4 linebackers and gives its results in the form of five-year sack totals.

I cautiously respect SackSEER because 1) it uses sound statistical methods to deduce which tools and conditions can be used to predict success; 2) those tools and conditions have tangible connections to success; 3) it's honest about its shortcomings; and 4) it's reasonably accurate.

SackSEER analysis of this draft's pass-rushing prospects was just released and offers a few against-the-grain opinions on some of the speed-rusher prospects being mocked to the Seahawks.

Might Seattle Trade Down?

Dan Kelly over at Fieldgulls is theorizing that the Seahawks could be caught up in a frenzy of trading in this year's draft, with QB-desperate teams trying to move up and beat other teams to the punch.

Rob Staton of Seahawks Draft Blog jumps into the trade discussion by suggesting five first-round trade possibilities, some of which include Seattle as a contestant.

Another angle is Rob Rang's belief that teams will be shier about trading down this year due to the lack of a CBA. The previous CBA allowed teams to attach longer contracts to early first-rounders, but nobody knows what rules will be attached to those picks this year. Teams may not want to give up the extra years of ownership of those guys when they might not be able to use those players in their rookie season.

My take:

Decoding John Schneider: Beating the Late-Round Odds

Everybody wants something for nothing. Coupon shoppers clip, Internet ads beckon with "$5,000 a month from home", and every NFL general manager would love to find quality starters with cheap picks from the fourth to seventh rounds of the draft.

The common misconception is that there's always a huge reserve of hidden talent just sitting untouched in the late rounds, missed by dimwitted general managers or stubborn coaches clinging tightly to a different scheme. Every once in a while, a Tom Brady or T.J. Houshmandzadeh emerges and gets fixated upon, seeming to prove that theory but really just distracting from the 50 players drafted before and after him who neither see nor deserve an NFL start. Exceptions always get more attention than the rule.

Is it really sensible to look at a player who drops into the fifth round, and assume that the combined research and intelligence of thirty-one other NFL teams' scouting departments all got it wrong? Much less four times over? Teams don't struggle to find late talent because they're blind, mis-prioritizing, or risk-averse; they struggle to find late talent because it usually isn't there. The real talent gets snatched up in the first hundred picks, and the pool is left mostly dry. Even the Patriots' late-round performance has been controlled by this dynamic; it's kinda out of their hands. There just aren't a lot of diamonds to be found in the rough of the draft's third day, because everyone else is also looking for them. Any true diamonds often find themselves permanently benched behind incumbents by their teams. Traffic shortcuts and fishing spots are only lucrative as long as nobody else knows about them, right?

But I know this general manager who is trying very hard to beat these very odds. He comes from an NFL management lineage that's proven this draft prowess, and he might even be close to actually pulling it off in his new job. His name is John Schneider.

Decoding John Schneider

Seahawks GM John Schneider graciously dropped us a few small bones today as he spoke to reporters at the Combine. In these days of CBA limbo, we're desperate for any scraps that fall from the table, are we not?

I wanted to take what we heard and turn it over a little bit in my mind. Not that I have any idea what Schneider is really thinking, but hey, we're all doing this, right?


On Matt Hasselbeck:

Roundtable: Six Seattle Prospects to Watch

As the country turns its attention to the NFL Scouting Combine today, 17 Power has grouped together the six first-round draft candidates that are most commonly being mocked to the Seattle Seahawks at #25 in the upcoming draft. These are the guys that seem to make the most sense for the Seahawks on the basis of Best Player Available - the intersection between the most talent available at that spot, and the greatest need for the Seahawks, with neither taking undue precedence over the other.

So we've individually rated all six prospects and come out with an interesting consensus. The players are listed in the order we would draft them if all six were still on the board at #25. Contributing to this nonsense are 17 Power writers Brandon Adams, Scott Williams, and John Campbell, with a guest appearance from Kyle Rota of NFL Draft Reports!

Enjoy - and remember to keep an eye on these guys at the Combine.