The Mallett Ultimatum, Part 1

Yep. I'm driving this bandwagon.

Just to be clear, I don't believe in grabbing any old first-round QB just because he's first-round. Plenty of teams have busted with that mentality. I also don't believe that he's an instant fix to every problem on a football team, nor that other picks can't help the situation. And I don't believe in throwing a rookie QB to the wolves on a team that can't afford him one iota of protection.

So when I say that I consider Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett the most likely-to-succeed prospect in this draft, it's for good reason. I've analyzed the guy, compared him to the other options, and emerged convinced that selecting this guy will bring bigger returns than any other. Sure, my judgment is fallible, but at some point you have to pick a belief and stick to it. I believe that Mallett has what it takes to win in the pros, and that he has it right now. The other guys do not, and it's questionable whether they ever will.

So here's my take on why Seattle should rate this guy very highly on its draft board. In the interest of sparing my generous readers from having to read essays, I've broken it down into three parts. Enjoy part one, in which I take a look mostly at Mallett himself.

(You might also appreciate the more technical scouting report of Kip Earlywine over at Seahawks Draft Blog.)

Forecasting an Early Run on Draft Quarterbacks

I wanted Ndamukong Suh so badly last year. I kept toting the idea of trading our #6 and #14 picks to Detroit to move up to #2 for him. It seemed to make so much sense; wouldn't the Lions benefit more from two franchise players instead of just one?

My peers, meanwhile, manufactured cheaper scenarios that envisioned Suh or Gerald McCoy falling to #6 as Detroit took a left tackle instead. Incumbent Jeff Backus didn't seem to be cutting it, and the Lions had signed Corey Williams to bolster the D-line; perhaps they were patching the defense with free agency and targeting a left tackle with the pick! Once Suh fell past Detroit, the other teams' needs would make at least McCoy available to Seattle. It made so much sense.

This is the very definition of wishful thinking. Football movements have many interpretations; the Williams move was a support for Suh, not an alternative. You can create a scenario that's possible, but is it realistic and reasonable? Any theory that requires a long procession of things to go wrong for other teams to benefit us should automatically be re-examined. In the end, Suh and McCoy went at #2 and #3 respectively, leaving us to ask ourselves, "Why did we ever think that Detroit and Tampa Bay would pass those guys up?"

It's wishful thinking to assume that any of the top four quarterbacks - Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, Jake Locker, or Ryan Mallett - will be available at #25. Sure, it could happen. Unlike most draft years, not even the #1 pick is locked in, and there are literally millions of possible draft simulations to wade through, including some that drop a top QB to the Seahawks. The problem is, each such scenario involves a number of very QB-hungry teams passing up a potential franchise QB, in favor of either an in-house solution that tanked in 2010 or an unremarkable/aging/unproven free agent (some of whom may not even be open to trade).

Second Opinions: Ryan Mallett and Cam Newton

Hmmm...this place is quickly turning into a Ryan Mallett blog. I need to write about Red Bryant or something, quick.

My opinions aren't perfect, and in this day and age of information overload and relative anonymity, I think it's important for a writer to have accountability. Therefore, you'll often see "Second Opinions" pieces here on 17 Power. Read them as me going "I might have been wrong". This week's lesson is not to take too much stock in what the media says. Yep, pretty basic. I might be a bit of a project as a writer.

I stand by my slight disappointment on Ryan Mallett's Combine interview. I don't think the video shows the "meltdown" that Doug Farrar refers to, but he did flash the petulance that's rapidly becoming his trademark. I think he could have helped himself by avoiding that. It compared poorly to the well-rehearsed, easygoing-on-the-surface interview of media darling Cam Newton and left a lot of people saying that Mallett would have to ace his private team interviews and the throwing drills on Sunday in order to make up for the lost ground.

Well, by many accounts, Mallett did just that. His throwing on Sunday was the best at the Combine, showing great power, accuracy, and ease of throwing. It was enough to remind the league that Cam Newton is still a project as a passer, albeit with stratospheric upside.

UPDATED: Thoughts on the Combine's QB Interviews

I wrote a while back on my annoyance with idle, unconfirmable rumors against college football prospects, so it should mean something that I'm a little let down by Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett's interview at the Combine on Saturday.

To summarize, he just doesn't appear to have helped himself much with the interview. Naturally, he immediately got peppered with questions about his off-the-field issues (which seem to be zeroing in on drug abuse), and his first response was to laugh it off. Once the questions continued, he began flatly insisting that "NFL teams know what they need to" and, in response to another round of those questions, ended his interview without preamble.

That's going to make Mallett look like he has something to hide. Admittedly, the only way to avoid that look was to come out and talk about the allegations, and there could have been valid reasons not to do so right now. But he and everyone else knew that the focus of this interview would be those off-the-field flags, and the abrupt ending to the interview didn't depict a guy who felt comfortable with himself. He came across to me as simply having lost his cool. (Watch for yourself here and here.)