The Perfect Quarterback's Personality

People talk about what a risky business the evaluation of quarterbacks is, and they aren't joking. That minefield is littered with the wreckage of general managers and head coaches' careers who have latched their reputations to the backs of colossal busts. Or the ascendancy of geniuses like Bill Belichick, whose reputation is partially established by a quarterback he passed on 5 times in one draft.

Once a talent evaluator has established that a quarterback has the physical skills to play at the position, and the intelligence to read defenses, call audibles, and in general not lose the game due to plain ol' stupidity, what is left?

The personality of the winning quarterback. Don't hire a private investigator to see if the guy is snorting coke off of a hookers' backside in his down time, hire a psychiatrist to see if the guy is a pain in the ass to play golf with.

Let me explain. I think great quarterbacks share a few qualities, none of which are related to physical skills or test related intelligence. They are, as follows (with credit to grinch11, who jogged this post with a reply over at Fieldgulls):

Where Do Real Offenses Come From?

We Seahawks fans are a unique breed. We're still riding high on the memory of 2005's Super Bowl offense, that unstoppable smashmouth machine. The reliable running game that defensive coordinators feared, the sharpness and zip of Matt Hasselbeck's play as he threw without duress, the favorable job the defense enjoyed of merely keeping opponents from outracing Seattle's points total. All enabled by a once-in-a-decade peak of skill and chemistry along the offensive line, complemented by an elite runner and a 6th-round quarterback obtained in trade. The Seahawks were catapulted to the top of the conference on the backs of that historic line, giving the team an aura of invincibility and the 12th Man the first taste of nation-wide respect they'd experienced in twenty years.

So why would we desire anything else? Why would we care how other teams get along? A lot of us honestly don't even watch non-Seahawks football. I hadn't until 2009, when I started suspecting that Seattle's QB issues were independent of the other problems on offense. I started researching the history of playoff teams, especially those who repeat. I learned a lot from draftniks who observe the draft tendencies and priorities of teams that succeed (and those that don't). I built a picture of which positions build off each other and which ones feed into which. And I came away with an inescapable conclusion.

Seattle's 2005 offense is a weird outlier. It's an exception to the rule. Most playoff offenses don't hinge on the offensive line nearly to the degree that the Seahawks' did that year. Some Super Bowl offensive lines have even been downright mediocre. But almost every single one of them is led by a great, and usually first-round, quarterback.

Which has no small amount of pertinence to how Seattle goes about rebuilding. Quarterback first, or everything else? Draft a QB early or later? If there's a debate raging stronger than Matt Hasselbeck, this is probably it.

Forecasting an Early Run on Draft Quarterbacks

I wanted Ndamukong Suh so badly last year. I kept toting the idea of trading our #6 and #14 picks to Detroit to move up to #2 for him. It seemed to make so much sense; wouldn't the Lions benefit more from two franchise players instead of just one?

My peers, meanwhile, manufactured cheaper scenarios that envisioned Suh or Gerald McCoy falling to #6 as Detroit took a left tackle instead. Incumbent Jeff Backus didn't seem to be cutting it, and the Lions had signed Corey Williams to bolster the D-line; perhaps they were patching the defense with free agency and targeting a left tackle with the pick! Once Suh fell past Detroit, the other teams' needs would make at least McCoy available to Seattle. It made so much sense.

This is the very definition of wishful thinking. Football movements have many interpretations; the Williams move was a support for Suh, not an alternative. You can create a scenario that's possible, but is it realistic and reasonable? Any theory that requires a long procession of things to go wrong for other teams to benefit us should automatically be re-examined. In the end, Suh and McCoy went at #2 and #3 respectively, leaving us to ask ourselves, "Why did we ever think that Detroit and Tampa Bay would pass those guys up?"

It's wishful thinking to assume that any of the top four quarterbacks - Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, Jake Locker, or Ryan Mallett - will be available at #25. Sure, it could happen. Unlike most draft years, not even the #1 pick is locked in, and there are literally millions of possible draft simulations to wade through, including some that drop a top QB to the Seahawks. The problem is, each such scenario involves a number of very QB-hungry teams passing up a potential franchise QB, in favor of either an in-house solution that tanked in 2010 or an unremarkable/aging/unproven free agent (some of whom may not even be open to trade).

Senior Bowl Quarterback Notes

Christian Ponder: NFL brain. Training bra arm. The deep ball he threw to Hankerson was caught, yes, but still exposed his arm as weak. His deep outs were equally weak. There is no questioning his intelligence, but the 18 yard deep out is an NFL staple, and he simply doesn't have it in his bag. His brains make him intriguing, but his arm says backup.

Jake Locker is still an athlete playing quarterback. He has moments, like his rollout left, where he squares his hips and makes a PERFECT pass, and you know only a few NFL quarterbacks can do that. But his seam routes on the hash are WR death throws. High and wide exposes a lot of ribs. I thought Mayock did a great job of exposing his baseball stride in the pocket. More hips, less legs, Jake. Can that be taught? Absolutely. The fumbling issue is a concern, part of his unsettled pocket presence could be due to poor ball protection. His time in Washington certainly didn't teach him that the pocket is a place to feel secure. I still think he goes in the top ten.

Greg McElroy, I just don't know about. He looks OK at everything, and great at nothing. His arm is not much better than Ponder's, though.

Andy Dalton didn't show much. Practice showed a better arm than Ponder and McElroy; his smarts are beyond question. After he got just absolutely SMOKED on what should have been an offsides penalty at minimum, I don't think it would be fair to evaluate what you saw anyway. And therein lies the rub with Dalton. Can he thicken up a bit so he can take an NFL pounding for 16 (or 18) games?

Colin Kaepernick. Maybe even more than Locker, he is an athlete playing at quarterback. The arm motion can only be described as Tebow lite. He does telegraph throws with his windup. He doesn't have Locker's deep stride issue in the pocket, however. I question his ability to make a 2nd or 3rd read, and his instinct to tuck and run is strong. He LIKES being a running quarterback.

His sideline interview during the game was enlightening. Media savvy players know that the Senior Bowl is an interview for a job, but don't emphasize that aspect, rather talking about "team". Kaepernick made no bones about measuring himself against the other 5 quarterbacks on the field that he thought were getting talked about more than him. Not sure how I feel about that.

Has straight line speed. He will wow them at the combine, he might even make Locker and Newton look slow. He will be selected later than Newton, but I'm not so sure Newton isn't the bigger project. Both are projects, however.

Ricky Stanzi has tools that fit the NFL, but almost appears afraid to make a mistake. He reeks of checkdown Charlie. Good pocket presence, makes two reads, throws all the passes with adequate zip, but somehow always leaves you wanting more. I think he reads short to deep, not deep to short. He looks like a clipboard will fit his hands for quite a few years into the future.

Caveat on these notes: North quarterbacks suffered from a poor pocket all day. South quarterbacks enjoyed a pristine pocket on most plays. Which is why using stats to break down this game is damn near useless.

A Little Story about Potential and Patience

One of the favorite tales to tell at the Super Bowl this week is Aaron Rodgers' rise to fame. His story has it all: College success, a precipitous drop in the draft, years of anonymity behind Mr. Madden's love child A.K.A. Brett Favre, the behind-the-scenes soap opera that played out with Mr. Favre and Ted Thompson with Rodgers stuck in the middle trying to say the right things, and Rodgers' meteoric success when he finally got his chance.

Now, the rest of the story. My apologies, Paul Harvey.

Aaron Rodgers fell in the draft because he had lots of potential, but during the draft process didn't show extremely well. His 6'2" stature didn't help, and he had very real mechanical issues in his delivery. His personality was off-putting to some. The 49ers, who had been watching his career from across the bay, reportedly passed on him because Mike Nolan thought the two of them would not get along.

It gets even more interesting.