Lockout Hangover: Linebackers

If you're using tackle numbers to evaluate linebackers, you should probably be aware that you're using a useless stat. If a linebacker has high tackle numbers, there might be all kinds of reasons for it, including some that have nothing to do with good performance. Such as:

1. He's a middle linebacker. Did you know that 50% of runs in the NFL are straight up the middle? MLB tackle numbers are higher than every other position by default, simply because that's where offenses run most.

2. His defense might be on the field all the time. Thus having to make more tackles. We already know this to be true of the Seahawks.

3. QB's might not be scared to throw at him. A good coverage LB (which a MLB should be in a Cover 2 like Seattle's) sticks to his zones and discourages passes to his man. Theoretically, a good MLB should have less tackles to make because he's forcing QB's to look elsewhere, hold onto the ball longer, and hopefully get sacked. Good defense shows up in QB pressure.

4. The rest of your team might suck at tackling. Thus forcing him to clean up their messes.


Starters

SackSEER and Seattle's Pass Rush Prospects

I wrote earlier about SackSEER, the Football Outsiders model that tries to project the NFL success of college pass rushers. It uses four specific factors to do this: short shuttle time, indicative of agility; vertical leap, which can show potential for burst and explosiveness off the line; per-sack college productivity; and college games missed. The models is restricted to 4-3 defensive ends and 3-4 linebackers and gives its results in the form of five-year sack totals.

I cautiously respect SackSEER because 1) it uses sound statistical methods to deduce which tools and conditions can be used to predict success; 2) those tools and conditions have tangible connections to success; 3) it's honest about its shortcomings; and 4) it's reasonably accurate.

SackSEER analysis of this draft's pass-rushing prospects was just released and offers a few against-the-grain opinions on some of the speed-rusher prospects being mocked to the Seahawks.