Lukewarm on the Red Bryant Re-Signing

DE Red Bryant is a favorite son of Seahawks fans. He's an exciting comeback story, an opportunistic playmaker in the mold of Carroll's perpetually overachieving "dirty defense", and certainly has a role in Seattle's lopsided scheme.

Today he finally signed an offer Seattle had on the table for a while, 5 years for $35 million. That was bigger than I was expecting. It was 40% bigger than Brandon Mebane's contract last year. I feel a bit like a stormtrooper in the midst of the celebration over Emperor Palpatine's death, but I have a few nagging reservations about this.


- First, it complicates efforts to sign DE Mario Williams. But this doesn't qualify as the foremost reason, because Williams to Seattle was never a certainty and perhaps never even a likelihood. I don't recall reading anything that really convinces me of drooling interest on Seattle's part. (While I was typing, Mike Sando confirmed this.) Outbidding four other teams to give him the largest DE contract in NFL history wouldn't exactly fit Carroll/Schneider's style. I'd qualify that by saying that Carroll/Schneider's style is to win at the end of the day, and Mario Williams would certainly service that. He'd have been a young, scheme-fitting, all-around superstar at a position of desperate need. But disappointment with Bryant over a free-agent signing that may never even have happened wouldn't be fair to our favorite relative of Jacob Green.


- Secondly, it takes the "Bryant experiment" and turns it into a long-term fixture. Red has a reputation of making life complicated for opponents' run games, but after two years I'm still not convinced that his impact is all that. What he did in 2010 was too circumstantial to trust, lambasting bad running teams in his first six games and happening to get hurt (along with the rest of the line) right as Seattle reached the worst part of its schedule. He stayed healthy in 2011, but Seattle's run defense didn't. It was declining towards the latter half of the season as speedier backs like Demarco Murray and Roy Helu found traction against them.

Something else that continues to decline is our pass rush. Everyone agrees that this is an issue, and while Bryant isn't an active part of the problem, he doesn't do much to help (and isn't intended to). He's a big guy with unusual quickness, but not enough agility or closing speed to harass quarterbacks, especially scrambling ones. This leaves our front pass rush up to one individual, which weakens it right away, as one of the elements of a successful pass rush is unpredictable origin. Carroll seemingly has plans to compensate with one hell of a blitzing linebacker corps, but that's not a catch-all...it requires blitzing lanes and still leaves coverage holes.

With due respect to wrinkles, if there are four players on the line when the ball is snapped, it's a 4-3, and a 4-3 mandates pressure from the 4. That isn't going to be Red, and any pass-rush specialist that spells him to get it will have to be cheap. That, even more than the cap hit, means no Mario - or anyone expensive, for that matter. You don't spend $22+ million annually on one position being shared by two players. Mario couldn't even displace Chris Clemons, because that would preserve the original problem - front QB pressure coming from only one place, a strategic disadvantage. To really blow this thing open, pass-rush reinforcements would need to go right where Red has just been entrenched, and not just on third down. "Hey look, Red's coming off the field, they must be gunning for Brady!"

Bryant's contract, however, signals Carroll's approval of a system that overemphasizes run-stopping ability in a passing league, keeps what pass rush we have constricted to LDE, and also tends to telegraph our intentions at the line by whomever appears at RDE. Reading similar complaints from me a year ago makes me cringe as to how simplistic they were, but Pete's habit last year of swapping Red out with pass-rush specialist(ishs) on 3rd down makes me think he agrees. Which leads me thirdly to...


- ...the statement that Red is worth $10 million more than Brandon Mebane. A lot of folks already disagree with this. 5Y/$35M is not insane for a DE, but it's awkward to justify for one who usually plays two downs, generates no QB pressure, doesn't take well to kicking inside, and should rightfully be playing in a 3-4. It's being said that Bryant's influence in the locker room explains the added value, as does the market - New England was supposed to be interested at one point, and possibly drove the price up.
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This certainly isn't a fatal signing or anywhere near a dangerous one. There are plenty of options, as some have theorized - an enterprising schemesmith like Carroll is no doubt still at his whiteboard right now. We are looking at pass-rushing linebacker types in the draft, as well as Jason Jones in free agency (a 3-tech at last! Yay!)

Let's call this what it is - somewhat overpaying for a one-dimensional specialist who's crucial to the team identity but whose usage paints the pass rush into a corner and potentially blocks any big draft investment in defensive end. It's silly to conclude that this front office is financially naive - they were willing to let this heavily valued player test the market rather than eat up (har har) the franchise tag - but some heads around Seattle are cocked.

I suppose we'll see where this goes. I do look forward to blocked field goals all year long. And while I wouldn't expect any pricey defensive ends to appear on Seattle's roster in the near future, money has never been an obstacle to Carroll finding talent. After all we've seen so far, Pete gets the benefit of a doubt from this blogger.

As if the title "blogger" made me any sort of authority on this stuff. Haha.

17 Blurbs on Peyton Manning and the Seahawks

Jason La Canfora of NFL.com has recently opined that the Seattle Seahawks are probably on the short list of suitors for Peyton Manning's post-Colts services.

Imagine this...at the VMAC.

Amongst La Canfora's arguments:

- The regime change in Indianapolis ensures a quarterback change as surely as it did in Carolina a year ago. The availability of Andrew Luck makes it easy for the Colts to move on, and Manning's recent comments, his medical condition, and the team's cap issues only seem to strengthen this likelihood.

- Manning's pay-me-or-cut-me roster bonus is due for a decision before the official start of free agency, effectively eliminating Indy's ability to trade him.

- Peyton has "earned the right to be picky" and will probably be looking for a quieter, lower-pressure division and a young, rising, team with a stable locker room and enough talent to where he won't have to pull his usual elevating-an-entire-team act. That narrows the list of candidates considerably, with Seattle and Arizona standing out.


17 quick blurbs from me on this possibility:


17.     La Canfora's article is mere speculation. Sensible, articulate, and exciting speculation, but nonetheless there's no element of Manning's actual intentions in there. For all we know, the anonymous "general managers and executives" that La Canfora cites could refer to Tim Ruskell and Dan Snyder.

Indiana Carroll and the Quarterback Crusade

For a while, the Seahawks' 2011 campaign was just one long draft discussion. Who are we getting at QB next year - that's all we cared about. Then the running game and defense suddenly emerged and started making a regular season out of it. That was fun, and hugely heartening. 2011 proved more informative and promising than we had expected.

But now, with the 49ers loss, we're swinging back into the holding pattern despite having a little football still left to play. And with that reversion, some shelved concerns are coming back with a vengeance.

A lot of us don't trust Pete Carroll to get our future quarterback right. I confess I don't.

And this despite Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider having done what most of us would have considered impossible: not only dump an entire roster whose financial footprint made it nigh undumpable, but replace most of that roster with talented high-ceiling starters - within two offseasons.

Wait...lockout...one and a half offseasons!

The rational sliver of my mind says, "What more do these guys need to prove to you?" They've validated themselves at virtually every position, spectacularly in some cases (Kam Chancellor! Doug Baldwin! ZOMG RICHARD SHERMAN!!!!!!!1!11). But when it comes to the cornerstone of quarterback, we're tetchy. Anxiously rehashing the debates. Wringing out the talking points without mercy. Flooding Rob Staton with page hits. All the signs of someone who needs a lot more reassurance.

State of the Seahawks; Forecast, Clear Vision

At the time of Mr. Carroll's hire, the words "Clear Vision" were thrown around with sustained conviction by Pete and John, met with derision by the media, and met with skepticism by fans inured to front office promises.  The cheerleader from USC says anything, because he is so pumped and jacked, said the college coaches never make it in the NFL crowd.  He doesn't really want to coach in Seattle, he is just running from the Reggie Bush scandal, sniveled the pundits.  Pros do not buy into Rah Rah coaching at this level, said every damn talking head.  Seattle was accused of almost racism in the hiring process for a near violation of the Rooney rule, Pete was releasing a poorly timed book that touted his philosophy, and every player who ever played at USC was linked to the Hawks future by every reporter and blogger with a hunch.

Vision is a funny word that must confuse the hell out of people just learning English.  Rhymes with fission, while breaking phonetic rules.  I have good vision.  Awesome.  My vision needs correction.  Coke bottle correction, or contacts?  I just had a vision.  Kook.  Pete and John share a vision.  Bull.

Those were dark days for many Hawk fans. Foggy days.  Rainy days with low visibility.  Pete's vision was only clear to a few people.  His corrective lenses were of a prescription available to few of us.  Binocular in one eye, Telescope in the other.

I freely admit to not having a clue about Seattle's direction after Pete was hired.  I knew I was glad the Keystone Cops, aka Ruskell and Mora, were gone, but hope is not vision.  Sometimes, hope is less transparent than pure misery.

Fast forward to Week 16, 2011.  Seattle still could finish with a losing record.  Seattle is assured of at least the same record as last year, and if they do finish that way, the superficial will have their say.  Pete will be a .500 career coach in their eyes.

Do you care, or will statements like that just be your new filter for separating the ignorant from the informed?

Seahawks Bye-Week Report Card: The Palmer Ship Has Sailed and Other QB Thoughts

Previously: The Bye-Week Report Card on the Defense

NFL.com, indulging in a small-time shock tactic that's eyebrow-raising just the same, posted an interesting picture yesterday in order to attract clicks to their newest feature article suggesting possible last-minute trades. It was originally a well-known picture of Pete Carroll welcoming Matt Hasselbeck to the sidelines after a presumed touchdown, but the back of the jersey is now (rather obviously) photoshopped to show the number "9" and the name "Palmer".

Had you shown me that a couple weeks ago, I might have gotten excited. Earlier this year, 17 Power was one of a couple of Seattle blogs passing on low-level rumors that the Seahawks were pursuing Palmer in trade. A couple people were insisting that a certain price has been named; others quoted only an intangible interest. Nothing ever materialized, but the interest wasn't disproven either. Palmer, though modestly aged and beset by injuries, is nonetheless a potential short-term franchise quarterback with the skills to produce. He isn't doing anything in his non-retirement in Cincinnati, and the Bengals can only stand to benefit from trading him. It was a needed and potentially exciting prospect for a team struggling at the most important position, and I was hopeful it would happen.

Now...mehh. Not so much.

Why Rumors of Carroll-Schneider's Demise are Probably Greatly Exaggerated

We pre-empt your regularly scheduled viewing of "Five Things Pete Carroll Still Needs to Prove" to bring you this breaking news bulletin: Pro Football Weekly is jumping to conclusions Evil Knievel-style. Again.

Hub Arkush and Eric Edholm of PFW reported yesterday morning that the collaborative relationship between VPFO/head coach Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider "could be on rocky ground". The spate of offensive injuries and the subpar performance of the offensive line are reported to be a source of tension between the two, with each supposedly making personnel moves the other is displeased with.

This piece of substantiation is offered:

"I talked to one agent who had one of his free-agent clients shipped into Seattle, and when he got there, Pete Carroll said, 'What is he doing here? We don't need him for a football team.' That's just one example of personnel not matching up to what the coach wants to put on the field."

Some reasons why this report doesn't make sense:

1. That agent story is the only item of supporting information that's present in this whole thing. It's one piece, smacking of sensationalism to be quite honest, and the conclusions leaped to from that one exhibit are massive. This doesn't pass the basic strength-of-evidence test.

2. It doesn't offer a motive. Why would Pete Carroll, John Schneider, or anyone in their right mind be annoyed over the acquisition of Sidney Rice, Robert Gallery, or Zach Miller? Tarvaris Jackson I can see, but the other three are proven NFL veterans. We know Pete loves to niggle over his scheme, but that's not mentioned in enough detail here to provide any credibility.

3. It ignores the collaborative relationship in the VMAC. Carroll and Schneider, from all vantage points and by the claim of evey respectable journalist who's seen the process up close, are making decisions together. The PFW piece seems to operate under the assumption that the two are holed up in separate rooms doing their own thing.

4. It doesn't account for the participation of the coaching staff. Doug Farrar mentions that Carroll and Schneider chose to mine the past player connections of OC Darell Bevell and O-line coach Tom Cable in order to find some continuity to help the team after the lockout. Ergo, most of Seattle's offseason acquisitions on offense. James Carpenter and John Moffitt were also Cable picks. We can still debate the wisdom of those moves, but still, it's an easy alternative explanation to "Carroll and Schneider are just on different pages."

5. It's not as if Carroll and Schneider have always agreed on everything anyway. Charlie Whitehurst was largely Schneider's guy, having been on his radar for years before. Carroll supported the move all the way, but reading between the lines, one could easily conclude that it wasn't Carroll's idea. Which speaks to the strength of the collaboration, compromise, and united front that they're trying to build - all good signs of a strong relationship.

6. It doesn't jive with Carroll's history. It's implied that Carroll is upset over the injuries suffered by Sidney Rice and Robert Gallery. First of all, it would be pretty irrational of Pete to get frustrated over something as unpredictable as injuries, unless you think that Rice's torn labrum has something to do with the gimpy hip that sidelined him in Minnesota. They're kind of in different parts of the body. Second of all, even if there was injury history to point to, Carroll is hardly injury-shy. During the 2010 draft, he traded with the Jets for major player Leon Washington, sidelined by injury, shortly after drafting CB Walter Thurmond - a second-round talent knocked down a few rounds by injury - and pretty much cordoning off a starting spot for him, to the point of being willing to trade away the incumbent Josh Wilson. Both Washington and Thurmond had truly gruesome leg fractures to recover from, and Thurmond still isn't back. So Carroll doesn't exactly look afraid to gamble against injury, although it's true that Thurmond and Washington didn't cost that much either.

7. Too many other alternative explanations. This could be a frustrated Pete Carroll making frustrated comments that are being blown out of context. It could be a frustrated agent trying to dish on a front office who didn't sign his guy. It could be a couple of bored writers trying to dish on the worst team in the NFL. Teams like the Seahawks are always targets of rumor-mongering. Are these cynical and unsupported possibilities? Yes. But they're also consistent with the day-to-day NFL, and they prevent the "rocky ground" theory from sounding definitive.


In less fancy words, this sounds like bullcrap being made out of nothing. Near-pure speculation based on very little falsifiable information. Of course, that's certainly our hope, because the destruction of Carroll and Schneider's working relationship is hardly a good thing for an already-struggling franchise. So let's be aware of are bias. But still, I haven't seen anything that serves as a respectable red flag. The leap is just too big. So let's get back to our pasta. Nothing to see here.

Three Seahawks Vulnerable to Trade

I wrote "vulnerable" because a) it's a unique word that oughta grab attention from the Google bots, and b) because it hopefully makes clear that this piece is laid-back speculation, not whisper-driven rumor. Nobody, including myself, has any inkling of these trades actually being imminent.

Anyway...when Pete Carroll and John Schneider burst onto the scene last year, they wasted no time in getting their program going. Leftovers from the previous regime were suddenly prime trade bait. QB Seneca Wallace, DE Darryl Tapp, and G Rob Sims were traded away before the draft; DE Lawrence Jackson and CB Josh Wilson during preseason; WR Deion Branch in October. Each fetched Seattle relatively paltry draft picks.

Not all these moves were popular, but there was a clear connecting link. The Seahawks were now guided by Carroll's philosophies at every position, and anyone belonging to the previous regime was subject to close scrutiny. Having modest value to the team didn't keep you safe; it just made you prone to being traded.

This was especially true for guys coming up on the end of their contracts. Wallace, Sims, and Wilson were all traded with a year left to play for Seattle; Jackson and Branch, two years. They signed Tapp to an RFA tender the day before trading him. Schneider was scrounging for any value he could get out of misfit players rather than letting them walk for nothing as free agents. Even if that meant jettisoning players who could still help the team for the present - and being forced to keep other misfit players in their stead because they had no trade value.

I bring up this phenomenon because we may yet see more of it. The pattern behind Seattle's recent trades inspired me to comb the current roster for guys who a) will soon hit free agency, b) are redundant and/or a scheme misfit, and c) could command any kind of value on the trade market.

Grading Seattle's Free Agency: Offense

Tarvaris Jackson (#7): C+

Signing the former Minnesota backup isn't exactly a coup in and of itself. Despite his tools, starting experience, and spotty handling by Brad Childress, the fact is that Jackson struggled in Minnesota despite being protected by an awesome offense. He's a popular example of how a good team doesn't necessarily elevate a bad QB.

But the signing looks better when you compare it against the other options. Seattle could have overpaid for Kevin Kolb, risked Vince Young, courted the Carroll-misfit Kyle Orton, or become the next victim of Donovan McNabb. Instead, they went for the best combination of value, experience, cost, and system familiarity in Tarvaris Jackson. His 2-year, $8 million contract leaves Seattle free to keep looking without settling for Derek Anderson-type ineptitude in the present. Jackson should be a little better than that.

I am a little surprised that Carroll just up and handed Jackson the starting spot based on system familiarity. But it's not as if Charlie Whitehurst was likely to pick up the new system with such a short time to practice. Call it "lockout fallout". Hee hee.

What to Do with Brandon Mebane

After months of suspense, the Conundrum has finally been resolved. DT Brandon Mebane, one of the most underappreciated talents on the team, has been re-signed by the Seahawks, who have avoided what could have been the worst mistake of this offseason: letting him go and relying on Alan Branch.

Mebane's contract is for 5 years, $25 million. That's pleasantly manageable, considering Seattle had to beat away offers from Denver, St. Louis, New Orleans, and who knows who else. It's in keeping with John Schneider's excellent haggling work so far this offseason, no doubt helped by Mebane's latent desire to remain in Seattle.

It's still, however, disproportionate to the unremarkable production Mebane achieved in his last two years playing out of position. That's why I'm mildly stunned that Seattle kept him. All through his contract year of 2010, he didn't seem to be producing anywhere near enough (1 sack, 1 QB hit) to justify a bigger payday. Mebane's return is big for Seattle, but not if he just keeps getting used the same way.

Which suggests one of two possibilities to me:

1. Pete Carroll and John Schneider are chumps.

2. Pete Carroll and John Schneider are planning some changes for the defense.

Straight Shots on Seattle's Draft, Part 2

Part 1 here.

Draft analysts continue to throw Seattle's draft under the bus as basically one big reach. I'm not exactly amongst them. I have my criticisms, but they're restrained. James Carpenter was a reach as a right tackle, but not as a football player. (You should check out Kip Earlywine's scouting report of the guy, and also Kyle Rota's on this very blog. He looks quite promising.) Kris Durham, a "Who?" pick for most Seattle fans, turned out to be another late riser coveted by other quality teams. The 2011 draft was in many ways a clinic on NFL scouting, and how teams dig up talent that goes unnoticed by most experts.

Seattle's biggest prize from the 2011 draft is a revamped offensive line. With the delayed OTA's and minicamps threatening to delay its development (a slow-burn goal to begin with), this draft will be a delayed-gratification draft for certain. That has to be acknowledged. But all the signs point to Pete Carroll and John Schneider planning to have more than two starter picks available to revamp the lines.

And when that failed to happen, the draft appeared to wobble awkwardly. Finally pulling off a trade at #57, Schneider procured a fourth-rounder (#107) with doubtful starting potential and then took themselves out of the running for some badly needed DT prospects by selecting an average guard at #75. They felt a DT would still be waiting for them at #99.

Some consider that move a "fairly safe risk", but I balk at expecting starting defensive tackles to fall through most of the third round. This is the downside of getting cute in the draft. Deep positions in a draft don't stay deep, they get run on. Sure, a DT might have been there, but there were a number of such simple strategies Seattle could have tried to boost their chances of getting one. To me, they just didn't try that hard. That could say a number of things.

Thursday Post-Draft Links

Sorry for the hole in content. It's been a busy week with many exciting things going on. Here are some links while I finish a piece on Seattle's late-round picks.



Mike Sando passes on Seattle GM John Schneider's justifications for the draft. Tons of good info here. I appreciate how accountable Schneider makes himself to the fans - most of his "we don't care what others think" comments feel directed at national draftniks, not fans.

Also from Sando: a fair and balanced view on whether Matt Hasselbeck has a future with the Seahawks.

Rob Staton's source continues to hit it out of the park with intriguing gossip. Amongst the tidbits in his latest leak: Blaine Gabbert was actually the top-rated QB on Seattle's board, which I find encouraging. (Jake Locker was #6, which I find equally encouraging.) CB Jimmy Smith may have been a target at #25 after all, and Seattle is still in the thick of the free-agent QB hunt, with Charlie Whitehurst as a very real starter option.

Rob also addresses those who rationalize away Seattle's failure to draft a QB by pointing to next year's crop. In a nutshell: that's what they say every year. The optimistic future always looks more appealing than the closely-examined, better-informed present. That's a pretty good definition for the word "mirage".

FOXSports.com's Peter Schrager forecasts Seattle to draft #1 and select Andrew Luck in 2012. This won't happen. Too many things have to go just right (or wrong) for Seattle to select #1. It's like out-competing 31 other teams in the suck department. With master motivator Pete Carroll as coach, Seattle will win too many games against Arizona to nab Luck. And I don't care how long Carroll has supposedly been given to build his vision - if the Seahawks collapse disastrously enough to go #1 next year, his job will be in danger.

The OC Register examines new Seattle linebacker Malcolm Smith and the gastrointestinal disorder that he suffers from. It's a sobering thing. If Smith can stay on top of his condition, he has the tools to become an impressive value pick.

Nick Andron over at Fieldgulls reminds us that Seattle's new offensive line is not likely to bloom right away. List of obstacles to said blooming: inexperience, question marks at center and left guard, inexperience, Russell Okung's fragility, two rookies, inexperience, the lockout canceling OTA's and minicamps, and by the way, since we all seem to keep forgetting this...

ROBERT GALLERY IS NOT A SEAHAWK YET, AND MAY NEVER BE.

Straight Shots on Seattle's Draft, Part 1

Seattle's 2011 draft will probably please the typical Seahawks fan, who still believes that the offensive line is the foundation of a good offense. And a good defense. And a good special teams. And William and Kate's marriage. And the continued rotation of the earth about its axis.

It will also please you if you're content that our current starting QB is Charlie Whitehurst and our current starting 3-tech DT is Barrett Moen.

You're probably not so giddy, however, if you believe the swelling evidence that NFL success is tied to the quarterback much more strongly than it is the offensive line.

The Seattle Seahawks did their best in the 2011 draft given their position, but failed rather conspicuously to address the team's greatest needs with the most assured offseason mechanism - high draft picks - available to them. They didn't demonstrate the savvy sense of value they showed last year, and they didn't supply the team with the immediate impact that a fortunate-to-be-7-9 team requires.

It's easy to appeal to free agency at this point, but we don't know when free agency will begin. We don't know that Matt Hasselbeck, Carson Palmer, Nnamdi Asomugha, Brandon Mebane, or anyone else will be available or even interested to sign with Seattle once it does. Seattle has risked its 2011 season on a complete unknown. That's a gamble no matter how you slice it.

All this on the altar of a very specific vision that grows clearer by the moment, but has yet to be validated at the NFL level. At least there's a vision.

Let's go through this one round at a time.

The Draft and Character Risks

One last thought as the 2011 NFL Draft (finally) commences today...

I'm not sold on Pete Carroll. I don't know whether he has what it takes to compete at the league level yet. In his first year as Seahawks head coach, he's shown good and bad. He's certainly demonstrated that he can inspire and motivate even a poor team, get them believing in themselves. He can attract a quality coaching staff. He's not shy in free agency and can scrounge up decent talent out of almost anywhere. He's installed a defensive scheme that has documented weaknesses and prioritizes shutting down the run, which honestly shouldn't be a huge priority. He's shown an inflexibility on scheme that needlessly deprived Seattle of a couple talented players. He's betrayed a possible over-valuing of tools, like height.

Something we have yet to see is how he handles character risks with his high picks.

A number of late-first-round prospects commonly mocked to Seattle possess what we call "character concerns". This would include QB Ryan Mallett, CB Jimmy Smith, DT Marvin Austin, and DT Nick Fairley if he falls far enough. LB Justin Houston and DT Christian Ballard can be added to that list now that we know he failed a Combine drug test.

Character concerns can include anything from legal issues (drugs, alcohol, domestic problems) to on-field red flags (laziness, immaturity, cockiness, disrespect for authority). They can also range anywhere from confirmed and undeniable, to rumored and dismissible.

This stuff has to be taken into account when you evaluate a prospect. You don't draft a crucial player who runs the risk of leaving effort on the sidelines or getting thrown in jail for that crucial division game. This is why a player's draft stock takes a hit if this stuff comes out - draftniks know that teams will dismiss him more easily.

What about Carroll?

The Mallett Ultimatum, Part 3: Scheme Fit?

I don't have any idea what kind of offense Pete Carroll will be running in 2011.

You don't have any idea what kind of offense Pete Carroll will be running in 2011.

The media doesn't have any idea what kind of offense Pete Carroll will be running in 2011.

Truth be told, I don't even think Pete Carroll has any idea what kind of offense Pete Carroll will be running in 2011.

Why? Because Pete Carroll doesn't know who his quarterback will be yet. This is a quarterback-driven league whose successful offenses are built around the QB, not the other way around. Draft a good QB, construct the offense around his skill set, and you can start your rebuild any time. Wait for a QB who perfectly fits your abstract playbook, and you're at the mercy of the whims of the draft. You might be waiting years, and GM's don't have years to turn teams around.

It would be foolish for Seattle to rigidly adhere to an offensive philosophy instead of a quarterback. I personally don't see any proof that Carroll is even going to be that rigid. We know what he has said to the cameras, which means nothing. We know whom he has pursued in free agency, which means more. We know what he's done on the field, which is also valuable. And we know what works in the NFL, which might be the most important consideration of all.

Let's use that stuff when it comes to guessing Seattle's draft next week. Yes, this has to do with Ryan Mallett, because arguing in favor of flexibility allows us to envision Mallett as a Seahawk next week. Bias? Maybe, but I don't think it's a deadly one. Judge for yourselves.

A question to ponder: if Carroll is so excited about arm strength and mobility, then why did he trade away Seneca Wallace?

RUMOR: Carson Palmer to Seattle for Mid-Round Picks

Don't panic if Seattle doesn't draft a quarterback on Thursday - it might just mean that they already have one coming.

Rumors are heating up that Cincinnati QB Carson Palmer has a trade deal in the works with the Seattle Seahawks, and that the asking price is incredibly generous: a 5th-round draft pick and a 3rd-round (at the highest) pick in 2012, and a contract significantly less than either his current contract in Cincinnati or the contract that Matt Hasselbeck asked the Seahawks for.

Your immediate reaction is one of mocking incredulity. Those fanboys again. No way that would ever happen.

Well, there is a specific set of circumstances that could give sensible framework to the trade. Those circumstances have been authenticated separately by Rob Staton at Seahawks Draft Blog, working from a well-connected source he trusts, and a Seahawks.net forum member who also claims a contact within the Bengals organization. Adam Wright of Seahawks_Talk tweeted back in March that Palmer was being targeted by Seattle, and Sam Farmer of the LA Times has theorized the move as well, though the latter's comments could just be speculation.

There's also this Deep Throat with some intimate info that contradicts nothing we know about the situation. (Text, but NSFW).

Validating this rumor feels a little like validating the moon landing. There's a ton of quick, convenient contradictions that look good on the surface, but explore each of them with the facts and each sticking point goes away. The challenge is to overcome the "Oh, come on" reflex - the feeling that if you have to spend more than 5 minutes justifying something, you're just on the wrong path.

Here's the obvious counter-arguments:

The Mallett Ultimatum, Part 2: Too Many Holes?

Part 1 of the Ryan Mallett series can be found here.


In typical fashion, much of the sports community is only now taking a fair look at the Arkansas signal-caller and judging him in the light of actual NFL attributes. He's a polarizing figure, to be sure. All it takes in this reactionary pre-draft environment is one notable writer or reporter to laud a guy, and suddenly everyone starts jumping on board. ESPN ran a front-page piece on him this week. Phil Simms pumped up the guy. Jon Gruden hosted a whiteboard session in which Mallett blew Cam Newton and Andy Dalton out of the water in a demonstration of his grasp of pro-level offensive concepts. And now Greg Cosell, a knowledgeable scout and draftnik, is tweeting about him in the context of actual NFL offenses.

With the hype machine finally swinging in Mallett's favor for once, expect a resurgence of his draft stock. Some draft experts will keep Mallett in Round 2, but I'm fairly sure they'll be proven wrong on draft day when some desperate team reaches for him.

And it's not insane to say that said team should be the Seattle Seahawks, even despite rumors that they're not interested. (Rob Rang claims they still are.)

Which is why, when our little draft team traded up from #25 to #15 to select Mallett in the Mock Three Twitter draft, we raised a few eyebrows. Several people asked why, Adam Wright of Seahawks Talk thought it too costly, and a couple guys said we could have waited until the #57 pick to grab him, if not the third round.

Most of the rest of you just say - rightfully - that the team has too many holes to fill and can't afford giving up a second-round pick to trade up.

Here's part two of my defense.

The Overrated Red Bryant...Position?

"Say that to my face, skinny white boy."

He was the mini-Hutchinson of 2010, the one who got away. Most eulogies of Seattle's 2010 season mark the injury loss of DE Red Bryant as the point of collapse for Seattle's run defense, which ranked a surprising #2 by Week 7. It was a frustrating end to one of the offseason's most exciting stories, as training camp reports gushed about Bryant's experimental shift from tackle to end and the immediate improvement that followed.

Bryant, a fourth-round afterthought before the experiment, left such an indelible impression in his six games healthy that the run-stopping RDE in Carroll's scheme is now popularly named after him. With Red's future clouded by injury, the "Red Bryant position" is now seen as one of the team's foremost needs, the key to unlocking smashmouth defensive play. This has a lot of mock drafts, including this week's version from Rob Staton, handing Seattle a similar hulking-but-quick hybrid like Phil Taylor or Muhammad Wilkerson, who is set to visit with the Seahawks.

Here's the thing: the numbers don't support the idea that Seattle's early-season defense was all that amazing in the first place. In fact, it looks downright overrated upon close examination. And an overrated defense calls into question the value of, perhaps not Red Bryant himself, but the position he plays in Carroll's scheme.

I investigate this because it affects Seattle's draft board: where does a hulking-but-quick 5-tech like Taylor or Wilkerson really belong in the hierarchy of the Seahawks' needs?

This is a long one.

Decoding John Schneider: Beating the Late-Round Odds

Everybody wants something for nothing. Coupon shoppers clip, Internet ads beckon with "$5,000 a month from home", and every NFL general manager would love to find quality starters with cheap picks from the fourth to seventh rounds of the draft.

The common misconception is that there's always a huge reserve of hidden talent just sitting untouched in the late rounds, missed by dimwitted general managers or stubborn coaches clinging tightly to a different scheme. Every once in a while, a Tom Brady or T.J. Houshmandzadeh emerges and gets fixated upon, seeming to prove that theory but really just distracting from the 50 players drafted before and after him who neither see nor deserve an NFL start. Exceptions always get more attention than the rule.

Is it really sensible to look at a player who drops into the fifth round, and assume that the combined research and intelligence of thirty-one other NFL teams' scouting departments all got it wrong? Much less four times over? Teams don't struggle to find late talent because they're blind, mis-prioritizing, or risk-averse; they struggle to find late talent because it usually isn't there. The real talent gets snatched up in the first hundred picks, and the pool is left mostly dry. Even the Patriots' late-round performance has been controlled by this dynamic; it's kinda out of their hands. There just aren't a lot of diamonds to be found in the rough of the draft's third day, because everyone else is also looking for them. Any true diamonds often find themselves permanently benched behind incumbents by their teams. Traffic shortcuts and fishing spots are only lucrative as long as nobody else knows about them, right?

But I know this general manager who is trying very hard to beat these very odds. He comes from an NFL management lineage that's proven this draft prowess, and he might even be close to actually pulling it off in his new job. His name is John Schneider.

Saturday Sound Bites: Kolb, Cornerbacks, Mallett

Backtracking on Kolb

Peter King of Sports Illustrated is now denying that the Seahawks were the team to offer a first-rounder for Kevin Kolb. CSN Philly cites a source claiming that this fervent suitor of Kolb's is in fact the Arizona Cardinals. Since it's ridiculous to think that the Cards would sacrifice the #5 pick in 2011 for Kolb, the most likely offer was a 2012 first-rounder.

The Cornerback Chase

Adam Schefter names the Seahawks as a likely candidate to pursue former Oakland CB Nnamdi Asomugha. This looks like mere speculation, though we should make room for Schefter's reputation and the validity of his information flow.

On the other hand, Tony Pauline of TFY Draft Insider reports that Seattle could turn elsewhere in its CB hunt: Jimmy Smith of Colorado, a draft possibility at #25. Rob Staton has long rated Smith higher than most and remains convinced that his talent is worth the character risk revealed at the Combine, after which several teams supposedly scratched Smith from their draft boards.

I personally lean towards Asomugha. He'd be incredibly expensive, yes, but he plays a foundational position and plays it better than almost anyone in the league. He's getting up there in age, but like Champ Bailey and Charles Woodson, he has the physical/mental profile of a CB who ages well. Seattle has plenty of cap room and can afford to make waves in free agency. What we don't know is how such pricey, assured-to-start signings would fit into Pete Carroll's competition philosophy, which eschewed a big name like T.J. Houshmandzadeh in favor of the cheap Mike Williams and the unknown Ben Obomanu.

Smith, on the other hand, will reveal how Carroll and John Schneider weigh character risks. The team has signed questionable personalities like Williams, Lendale White, and Marshawn Lynch, but none of those were terribly costly to sign or to cut. Smith's status as a first-round pick, would skew that cost-benefit ratio quite a bit. Carroll looks for motivated players and complete embracing of the team philosophy, and the big knock on Smith is that he plays lazy and acts self-entitled. This accusation itself sounds a bit lazy, the kind of typically vague and intangible criticism that could be genuine or a plant. Even so, in my judgment, Asomugha is the more proven commodity.

Ryan Mallett Visits Seahawks

Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett has a visit scheduled with the Seahawks, amongst several other teams, next month.

Hard to read into these kinds of things. Tim Ruskell was notoriously coy when it came to revealing his draft choices, talking up most of the logical selections and then turning around and taking the one guy he hadn't paid any attention to. Schneider has not bothered with such games, having met with both Russell Okung and Earl Thomas before the draft.

Also, as a first-round quarterback, Mallett will be expected to schedule visits with more teams than players of other positions might. It's therefore difficult to read into these visits as indicators of potential interest, except to say that the Seahawks are not forgoing their due diligence on the top 4 QB's just because they're stuck at #25 and probably unable to get one.

I do find it interesting that Jake Locker has been invited to work out for only one team, as opposed to the multiple visits of Mallett, Cam Newton, and Blaine Gabbert. Of course, that could be because Locker's pro day isn't until the 30th.

The Little Guys

Seahawks Draft Blog lists some late-round prospects that Seattle has visited with. S Chris Conte, OT D.J. Young, QB Mike Coughlin (backup at Boise State), and LB Lawrence Wilson lead the list. LB Justin Houston will also work out for the Seahawks. There was also Montana tackle Michael Person, who has a fan in a knowledgeable high school coach I know; he says that tackles in Montana tend to project as guards in the NFL, but Person definitely has the attitude looked for by new Seattle O-line coach Tom Cable.

Hometown Discount

K Olindo Mare has expressed a desire to return to Seattle and is willing to take a smaller contract to do so. His primary concern is not uprooting his family.

What's in a Name

Qwest's purchasing by CenturyLink foretells an imminent (but not yet confirmed) renaming of Qwest Field to CenturyLink Field.

Dave Krieg's Strike Beard provides some welcome perspective in this tizzy. I will merely add that, much like the neon green uniforms, nobody's going to care that much if the Seahawks are winning.

Will Herring Keeps Busy

Backup LB Will Herring is using his lockout time productively by opening a local fitness center. Says he also has plans to compete for a starting spot. Sounds familiar.

Report: Seahawks Pursued Trent Edwards Last Spring

"I know, I know, build through the draft!"

Somewhat buried in a piece on Kevin Kolb, FOX Sports.com's Adam Caplan, quoting a source, mentioned yesterday that Seattle was interested in acquiring quarterback Trent Edwards from Buffalo last spring.

Specifically, the Seahawks made Edwards their #2 target after being turned down by the Philadelphia Eagles in a trade attempt for Kevin Kolb. Charlie Whitehurst, currently Seattle's backup QB, was the guy they courted after Edwards, who was also never traded.

It's not explained why the Edwards trade never went through. It's never really been explained clearly why the Kolb trade didn't go through, either. Philadelphia evidently never wanted to trade Kolb, but did they communicate that by slapping him with a price of two first-round picks, or did they communicate that by saying "No, thanks" and hanging up the phone? The answer could give us insight on just how much Seattle was willing to pony up for a franchise prospect.