The smartass guide to the LuckStakes, sans Seattle. Cry or rejoice as you see fit.

Who really has a shot at drafting Andrew Luck? Who's plummeting in free-fall towards the bottom of the barrel, and who's losing out by inexplicably winning? Here's the leading contenders.


1. Miami Dolphins. They opted not to fire Sparano during the lockout, why mess with a winning (at losing) formula? If Sparano's tenure was any more lame duck, the team's uniform accent color would be a l'orange. There has been talk among some pundits that now is the time to go get Orton, but with 11/16ths of his 9 million dollar salary still due, I find it hard to believe they would. Besides, the owner has the option of selling tickets one of two ways: build a winning team and tradition, or draft Andrew Luck. He is pushing the EASY button in Miami this year.

2. Indianpolis Colts. The latest news is that Peyton is less than 50/50 on playing this season. Expect those odds to dwindle as 16 losses draws closer. Those odds nearly got a big boost when Indy somehow found a way to lead the hapless Chiefs in an actual NFL game played in front of fans and everything, but some good mid-game adjustments by the Colts coaching staff made sure the Chiefs were able to come from behind and win a 2nd! NFL game.

3. St. Louis Rams. They are moving on up. The Jefferson's have nothing on this bunch, who are happy to report that they only have 5 home games left to gag. In related news, StubHub is reporting that St. Louis fans have bogged their servers with tickets for sale. While how much the Rams would want to draft Luck may be a matter of debate, the kings' ransom they would receive for trading that spot is not. Don't worry Seattle fans, the Rams will somehow get themselves to a couple of wins. Their goal is not Luck, but Los Angeles.

4. Denver Broncos. More proof that Elway has no idea what he is doing in Denver: Tebow Time. All he did was nearly beat San Diego. To the 3 or 4 Bronco fans who have not become Tebow acolytes, worry not. John Fox has promised that after the bye week they will have "training camp" style practices especially for Tim Tebow. Wasn't training camp a total disaster for Tebow? With a game at Miami the week after the upcoming bye, Fox and Elway are apparently hoping for a training camp-style ass-kicking in Miami.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are also competing for a spot in LA. The only team on my list who might trade the rights to the top spot to Seattle also might just reconsider that stance if Gabbert continues to poop the bed. Which kind of means Seattle has no chance.

6. Minnesota Vikings. Their chances took a severe blow when the Arizona Cardinals came to town, who after Seattle's win remain the western team most committed to losing 10 AM starts. I told them to IR Purple Jesus, but did they listen? Nope. Come on Vikings, would you rather have a dozen or so years of Luck, or 3 years of Christian Ponder? The Vikings will probably fall off the list, their defense is good enough to get them a handful of wins.

7. Arizona Cardinals. The more likely it becomes that Whisenhunt gets fired, the higher the Cards will move up this list. Kolb is looking less like a quarterback and more like an albatross every week. If every running back makes Patrick Peterson flinch the way that Adrian Peterson does, Kolb won't be able to throw enough touchdowns to keep this suddenly irrelevant team anywhere but near the top of the Luckstakes.

Philadelphia and Carolina sport records of 1-4, but I have a hard time seriously including them in the race for the number one pick right now. Seattle is out of it. Like I said last week, this Seattle Defense is only a couple of attitude ticks away from winning a few games by itself. They played against the Giants like their attitude was ticked, and good for them. They put the loud but vocal Suck for Luck minority to bed, and thank goodness. With 3 games left against the Rams and Cards, it is highly unlikely that Seattle even drafts in the top 5, let alone grabs the top spot.

Thursday Post-Draft Links

Sorry for the hole in content. It's been a busy week with many exciting things going on. Here are some links while I finish a piece on Seattle's late-round picks.



Mike Sando passes on Seattle GM John Schneider's justifications for the draft. Tons of good info here. I appreciate how accountable Schneider makes himself to the fans - most of his "we don't care what others think" comments feel directed at national draftniks, not fans.

Also from Sando: a fair and balanced view on whether Matt Hasselbeck has a future with the Seahawks.

Rob Staton's source continues to hit it out of the park with intriguing gossip. Amongst the tidbits in his latest leak: Blaine Gabbert was actually the top-rated QB on Seattle's board, which I find encouraging. (Jake Locker was #6, which I find equally encouraging.) CB Jimmy Smith may have been a target at #25 after all, and Seattle is still in the thick of the free-agent QB hunt, with Charlie Whitehurst as a very real starter option.

Rob also addresses those who rationalize away Seattle's failure to draft a QB by pointing to next year's crop. In a nutshell: that's what they say every year. The optimistic future always looks more appealing than the closely-examined, better-informed present. That's a pretty good definition for the word "mirage".

FOXSports.com's Peter Schrager forecasts Seattle to draft #1 and select Andrew Luck in 2012. This won't happen. Too many things have to go just right (or wrong) for Seattle to select #1. It's like out-competing 31 other teams in the suck department. With master motivator Pete Carroll as coach, Seattle will win too many games against Arizona to nab Luck. And I don't care how long Carroll has supposedly been given to build his vision - if the Seahawks collapse disastrously enough to go #1 next year, his job will be in danger.

The OC Register examines new Seattle linebacker Malcolm Smith and the gastrointestinal disorder that he suffers from. It's a sobering thing. If Smith can stay on top of his condition, he has the tools to become an impressive value pick.

Nick Andron over at Fieldgulls reminds us that Seattle's new offensive line is not likely to bloom right away. List of obstacles to said blooming: inexperience, question marks at center and left guard, inexperience, Russell Okung's fragility, two rookies, inexperience, the lockout canceling OTA's and minicamps, and by the way, since we all seem to keep forgetting this...

ROBERT GALLERY IS NOT A SEAHAWK YET, AND MAY NEVER BE.

Luck-Barkley Syndrome: Should Seattle Trade Up?

Football fans don't want the next Jay Cutler, Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub, Tony Romo, or Carson Palmer. Franchise QB's they may be, but they've never seen a Super Bowl.

They don't want the next Matt Hasselbeck or Donovan McNabb. Franchise QB's they may be, and they've been to the big dance, but they've never won - and they fall apart without support from their team.

Some don't want the next Eli Manning, Drew Brees, or Kurt Warner. Franchise QB's they may be, and they may have won a Lombardi, but they haven't repeated. And they still rely on scheme or surrounding talent to keep winning.

You might even hear a few reject the next Peyton Manning or the next Brett Favre: "All he does is choke in the playoffs."

When faced with a choice, some fans aren't content with a franchise leader or playoff QB - they want a legend. They want a dynasty. They want a winner of multiple Super Bowls - a Tom Brady or a Ben Roethlisberger. They want a guy who provides that ironclad aura of winning regardless of circumstance, a player who makes the team around him better, the threat of the storm on the horizon that others must either go around or get blown away by. Fans don't want a QB who relies on the system - they want a QB who is the system.

And so it is that fans of every team are willing to mortgage an entire draft to trade up the following year, if it means nabbing that once-in-a-decade QB prospect that will light up their team in the glow of multiple Lombardi trophies.

Is that really such an unreasonable thing? And is it a dream that Seattle can follow by trading up in 2012's draft?