DVR Run Analysis - Philadelphia @ Seattle; 1-Dec-2011

Note: Click here to find Jon's previous DVR Analysis of the Redskins game.

Here's my DVR Run Analysis for the Eagles/Seahawks game...

* This was the week of the breakaway run. We lost some consistency this week as we had five runs for loses and twelve of thirty planned runs with gains of less than three yards. Half of our runs were for less than four. I attribute this more to an over-aggressive defense than inconsistent play from the offense. Yeah, they stopped us at times, but they also got burned - badly.

* Overall, we got 162 yards on 30 planned carries for a 5.4 YPC average. Marshawn Lynch topped 100 yards for the fourth time in five weeks. Beast Mode accounted for 148 yards on 22 carries for 6.7 YPC and two touchdowns. Yeah, the Eagles got burned.

* Q1 - After an Illegal shift penalty due to WR Golden Tate watching a late 12th Man ceremony, we had only one bad play in eight runs. We got 51 yards for 6.4 YPC, including a first down and one of the sweetest TDs you'll ever see.

Five Things to REALLY Watch vs. DEN

I won't be able to watch tonight's game (going huckleberry picking), but I just thought I'd rattle off a few important players and positions on the team that nobody seems to be talking about. The third preseason game is usually the most crucial and revealing, and this week Pete Carroll will be playing his starters into the third quarter.


Alan Branch

The ability of DT Alan Branch to penetrate the line and pressure QB's is going to be key to this defense. So far, he's flashed as much effectiveness against the pass as Colin Cole - which is to say, none except for the occasional tipped pass. Branch is built much more like Red Bryant and could struggle on the inside for the same reasons Bryant did - too big, not enough leverage against squattier guards who know how to get under him.


Backup Safety

Two weeks ago, Josh Pinkard was a goat for blowing a coverage and leaving Kelly Jennings 1-on-1 to defend Vincent Jackson. At that time, nobody foresaw a roster spot for him. Last week, he got in a spectacular forced fumble and is suddenly a real candidate for the 53.

In both cases, popular opinion of the injury-plagued USC defender has been decided largely by one big play. His real worth is decided by the fundamentals that he shows in the quiet downs. Someone should be watching him for his coverage decisions, his reactions, his awareness and his tackling.

Pinkard's competition, Mark Legree, has been virtually invisible the past month and recently did an interview containing all the usual quotes of a player about to be put on the practice squad. I wonder who Carroll will choose - an old USC alumni he's kept around for a year, or an actual draft pick.


Slot Receiver

Sophomore receiver Golden Tate was getting big training-camp accolades over his improving route running - right up until last week, when two big drops almost single-handedly killed Seattle's offense. His heir apparent? Doug Baldwin (got it right!), who has shown some undeniable polish as a slot receiver. He's been productive on the field, but not with the first-team offense. He needs snaps against starting defenses before we just crown him as Tate's replacement.

Pete Carroll has had a strong hand in Tate's development. Tate continued to get snaps after his first-half snafus against Minnesota, and wound up with one reception. It wouldn't surprise me to see Tate given more chances. He's supposed to be getting used as a short-play weapon of the very kind that can help a QB defeat pressure. If that happens, with Ben Obomanu returning to the field for the first time this season, Baldwin may not get as many reps as he'd like.


Max Unger

Unger was a terrible guard in 2009, spending far too much time getting blown into his own backfield. People have said that he'll fare better at his natural center position, but the knock against Unger has been his strength, and both guard and center involve strength showdowns against big, heavy men. How much different can center be? They benefit more from combo blocks against guards, but there will still be one-on-one matchups from time to time. Unger has to start winning more of them.


Justin Forsett

The 7th-round fan favorite looks more and more like a fusing of the negatives of Leon Washington (smallish, questionable durability) and Marshawn Lynch (not very fast, bit of a dancer). I maintain my opinion that he could become trade bait if he doesn't start showing. He sat out with neck stiffness against San Diego and was misused as a goal-line back against Minnesota. Hopefully he'll flash more with extended snaps against the Broncos.

8/17 Tidbits: Danny O'Neill Chat

Yesterday's live chat with Danny O'Neill of the Seattle Times provided a few valuable nabobs, as usual. I love the smell of nabobs in the morning!


* CB Kelly Jennings chose the Seahawks over other teams offering multi-year deals. That speaks to his confidence in making this roster. I've tried to give Kelly Jennings a fair shot (and so has this guy), but eurgh. (But Danny makes a good point: wherever he ends up on the depth chart, his presence assures better depth than Nate Ness.)

* Tanking a season for a franchise QB is philosophically counter-productive, not guaranteed to succeed, and historically unnecessary anyway. Trifecta.

* Tarvaris Jackson defenders citing his minimal practice time and lack of receivers, can add this to their repertoire: he was facing a pass-rush-happy San Diego team that Seattle had not specifically game-planned for.

* Danny doesn't see John Carlson fetching more than a 6th or 7th-rounder in trade, a return probably be outweighed by his potential one-year production alongside Zach Miller. I agree, though I suspect Schneider is more addicted to draft picks than Danny allows.

* Baffled by the fact that CB Brandon Browner hasn't been noticed by the league. Skepticism suggests there's probably a reason. But after consistent praise from camp watchers whose analysis I respect, I'll reserve judgment.

* Likes S Jeron Johnson, whose roster chances are probably doomed by the newly signed Atari Bigby.

* Suggested Kam Chancellor might blitz more.

* Red Bryant is trying to slim down a bit.

* Four words: Screen passes to Leon. (Two more: Yes, please.)

* Pass protection might be an issue.

* Justin Forsett missed the San Diego game because of neck stiffness. Reassuring.

Three Seahawks Vulnerable to Trade

I wrote "vulnerable" because a) it's a unique word that oughta grab attention from the Google bots, and b) because it hopefully makes clear that this piece is laid-back speculation, not whisper-driven rumor. Nobody, including myself, has any inkling of these trades actually being imminent.

Anyway...when Pete Carroll and John Schneider burst onto the scene last year, they wasted no time in getting their program going. Leftovers from the previous regime were suddenly prime trade bait. QB Seneca Wallace, DE Darryl Tapp, and G Rob Sims were traded away before the draft; DE Lawrence Jackson and CB Josh Wilson during preseason; WR Deion Branch in October. Each fetched Seattle relatively paltry draft picks.

Not all these moves were popular, but there was a clear connecting link. The Seahawks were now guided by Carroll's philosophies at every position, and anyone belonging to the previous regime was subject to close scrutiny. Having modest value to the team didn't keep you safe; it just made you prone to being traded.

This was especially true for guys coming up on the end of their contracts. Wallace, Sims, and Wilson were all traded with a year left to play for Seattle; Jackson and Branch, two years. They signed Tapp to an RFA tender the day before trading him. Schneider was scrounging for any value he could get out of misfit players rather than letting them walk for nothing as free agents. Even if that meant jettisoning players who could still help the team for the present - and being forced to keep other misfit players in their stead because they had no trade value.

I bring up this phenomenon because we may yet see more of it. The pattern behind Seattle's recent trades inspired me to comb the current roster for guys who a) will soon hit free agency, b) are redundant and/or a scheme misfit, and c) could command any kind of value on the trade market.

More Than Just a QB Away: Offense

I don't blame national football pundits for not knowing much about the Seahawks. It's not as if they don't have time for anything but studying Seattle's roster. They've got 32 teams to cover, and believe me, researching and writing articles on pro football is a time-consuming job.

So when NFL.com's Steve Wyche slapped a pic of Matt Hasselbeck onto an article entitled "QB all that's missing from these teams", I didn't immediately spit out my Mountain Dew. Despite the fact that the Seahawks are hurting immoderately at almost every position and that a quarterback will not solve everything, I just decided to give the guy a break. I'm not insecure about my team; I don't need sportswriters to give the Seahawks their deserved diligence in order to feel good about them. Their defeat of New Orleans gave me two years' worth of punk-headed confidence to coast on. And besides, it's just too easy to mock sportswriters. Picking on easy targets makes you look the worse.

Nevertheless, I knew Wyche was wrong without even reading the article. For all my rants about the QB position and how its importance justifies no other draft pick at #25 if a top-four QB remains, the Seahawks have dire needs all over the roster.

So here's my shot at a position-by position assessment of Seattle's roster. Just to be different, I'll assess each position on a scale of one to ten - ten indicating a well-filled position, one meaning a bleeding hole.

Looking Back on 2010, Part 6: Ominous October

Continuing a series of posts re-capturing the moods, debates, and plot twists of Pete Carroll's first year in Seattle. Links to previous installments available at the end of the page.

Seattle had gotten off to just good enough of a start in September to energize Seahawks fans, but there were still red flags.

Yes, Seattle was 2-1, but the opponents weren't all that impressive and the winning didn't look all that sustainable. San Diego had performed well against us and had lost due to a freak special-teams meltdown. The 49ers were, well, the 49ers. And the Denver Broncos, who would go on to finish the season 3-13, had whalloped us.

Part of judging a team is judging its opponents. I respected Seattle's 2-1 start more than I did its 2009 start, which featured a blowout against the bottom-dwelling Rams and Jaguars and then nothing else. The 49ers and Chargers were talented, the latter notorious for starting the season slow. So I wasn't about to dismiss the winning entirely, but I was nervous as October began as the Rams coming up. One of my colleagues at work was positive that St. Louis would beat us: "You can't keep a streak like that going forever".

She was right.