Sorry for the hole in content. It's been a busy week with many exciting things going on. Here are some links while I finish a piece on Seattle's late-round picks.
Mike Sando passes on Seattle GM John Schneider's justifications for the draft. Tons of good info here. I appreciate how accountable Schneider makes himself to the fans - most of his "we don't care what others think" comments feel directed at national draftniks, not fans.
Also from Sando: a fair and balanced view on whether Matt Hasselbeck has a future with the Seahawks.
Rob Staton's source continues to hit it out of the park with intriguing gossip. Amongst the tidbits in his latest leak: Blaine Gabbert was actually the top-rated QB on Seattle's board, which I find encouraging. (Jake Locker was #6, which I find equally encouraging.) CB Jimmy Smith may have been a target at #25 after all, and Seattle is still in the thick of the free-agent QB hunt, with Charlie Whitehurst as a very real starter option.
Rob also addresses those who rationalize away Seattle's failure to draft a QB by pointing to next year's crop. In a nutshell: that's what they say every year. The optimistic future always looks more appealing than the closely-examined, better-informed present. That's a pretty good definition for the word "mirage".
FOXSports.com's Peter Schrager forecasts Seattle to draft #1 and select Andrew Luck in 2012. This won't happen. Too many things have to go just right (or wrong) for Seattle to select #1. It's like out-competing 31 other teams in the suck department. With master motivator Pete Carroll as coach, Seattle will win too many games against Arizona to nab Luck. And I don't care how long Carroll has supposedly been given to build his vision - if the Seahawks collapse disastrously enough to go #1 next year, his job will be in danger.
The OC Register examines new Seattle linebacker Malcolm Smith and the gastrointestinal disorder that he suffers from. It's a sobering thing. If Smith can stay on top of his condition, he has the tools to become an impressive value pick.
Nick Andron over at Fieldgulls reminds us that Seattle's new offensive line is not likely to bloom right away. List of obstacles to said blooming: inexperience, question marks at center and left guard, inexperience, Russell Okung's fragility, two rookies, inexperience, the lockout canceling OTA's and minicamps, and by the way, since we all seem to keep forgetting this...
ROBERT GALLERY IS NOT A SEAHAWK YET, AND MAY NEVER BE.
Showing posts with label Jimmy Smith. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jimmy Smith. Show all posts
Thursday, May 5, 2011
Thursday, April 28, 2011
The Draft and Character Risks
One last thought as the 2011 NFL Draft (finally) commences today...
I'm not sold on Pete Carroll. I don't know whether he has what it takes to compete at the league level yet. In his first year as Seahawks head coach, he's shown good and bad. He's certainly demonstrated that he can inspire and motivate even a poor team, get them believing in themselves. He can attract a quality coaching staff. He's not shy in free agency and can scrounge up decent talent out of almost anywhere. He's installed a defensive scheme that has documented weaknesses and prioritizes shutting down the run, which honestly shouldn't be a huge priority. He's shown an inflexibility on scheme that needlessly deprived Seattle of a couple talented players. He's betrayed a possible over-valuing of tools, like height.
Something we have yet to see is how he handles character risks with his high picks.
A number of late-first-round prospects commonly mocked to Seattle possess what we call "character concerns". This would include QB Ryan Mallett, CB Jimmy Smith, DT Marvin Austin, and DT Nick Fairley if he falls far enough. LB Justin Houston and DT Christian Ballard can be added to that list now that we know he failed a Combine drug test.
Character concerns can include anything from legal issues (drugs, alcohol, domestic problems) to on-field red flags (laziness, immaturity, cockiness, disrespect for authority). They can also range anywhere from confirmed and undeniable, to rumored and dismissible.
This stuff has to be taken into account when you evaluate a prospect. You don't draft a crucial player who runs the risk of leaving effort on the sidelines or getting thrown in jail for that crucial division game. This is why a player's draft stock takes a hit if this stuff comes out - draftniks know that teams will dismiss him more easily.
What about Carroll?
I'm not sold on Pete Carroll. I don't know whether he has what it takes to compete at the league level yet. In his first year as Seahawks head coach, he's shown good and bad. He's certainly demonstrated that he can inspire and motivate even a poor team, get them believing in themselves. He can attract a quality coaching staff. He's not shy in free agency and can scrounge up decent talent out of almost anywhere. He's installed a defensive scheme that has documented weaknesses and prioritizes shutting down the run, which honestly shouldn't be a huge priority. He's shown an inflexibility on scheme that needlessly deprived Seattle of a couple talented players. He's betrayed a possible over-valuing of tools, like height.
Something we have yet to see is how he handles character risks with his high picks.
A number of late-first-round prospects commonly mocked to Seattle possess what we call "character concerns". This would include QB Ryan Mallett, CB Jimmy Smith, DT Marvin Austin, and DT Nick Fairley if he falls far enough. LB Justin Houston and DT Christian Ballard can be added to that list now that we know he failed a Combine drug test.
Character concerns can include anything from legal issues (drugs, alcohol, domestic problems) to on-field red flags (laziness, immaturity, cockiness, disrespect for authority). They can also range anywhere from confirmed and undeniable, to rumored and dismissible.
This stuff has to be taken into account when you evaluate a prospect. You don't draft a crucial player who runs the risk of leaving effort on the sidelines or getting thrown in jail for that crucial division game. This is why a player's draft stock takes a hit if this stuff comes out - draftniks know that teams will dismiss him more easily.
What about Carroll?
Saturday, March 26, 2011
Saturday Sound Bites: Kolb, Cornerbacks, Mallett
Backtracking on Kolb
Peter King of Sports Illustrated is now denying that the Seahawks were the team to offer a first-rounder for Kevin Kolb. CSN Philly cites a source claiming that this fervent suitor of Kolb's is in fact the Arizona Cardinals. Since it's ridiculous to think that the Cards would sacrifice the #5 pick in 2011 for Kolb, the most likely offer was a 2012 first-rounder.
The Cornerback Chase
Adam Schefter names the Seahawks as a likely candidate to pursue former Oakland CB Nnamdi Asomugha. This looks like mere speculation, though we should make room for Schefter's reputation and the validity of his information flow.
On the other hand, Tony Pauline of TFY Draft Insider reports that Seattle could turn elsewhere in its CB hunt: Jimmy Smith of Colorado, a draft possibility at #25. Rob Staton has long rated Smith higher than most and remains convinced that his talent is worth the character risk revealed at the Combine, after which several teams supposedly scratched Smith from their draft boards.
I personally lean towards Asomugha. He'd be incredibly expensive, yes, but he plays a foundational position and plays it better than almost anyone in the league. He's getting up there in age, but like Champ Bailey and Charles Woodson, he has the physical/mental profile of a CB who ages well. Seattle has plenty of cap room and can afford to make waves in free agency. What we don't know is how such pricey, assured-to-start signings would fit into Pete Carroll's competition philosophy, which eschewed a big name like T.J. Houshmandzadeh in favor of the cheap Mike Williams and the unknown Ben Obomanu.
Smith, on the other hand, will reveal how Carroll and John Schneider weigh character risks. The team has signed questionable personalities like Williams, Lendale White, and Marshawn Lynch, but none of those were terribly costly to sign or to cut. Smith's status as a first-round pick, would skew that cost-benefit ratio quite a bit. Carroll looks for motivated players and complete embracing of the team philosophy, and the big knock on Smith is that he plays lazy and acts self-entitled. This accusation itself sounds a bit lazy, the kind of typically vague and intangible criticism that could be genuine or a plant. Even so, in my judgment, Asomugha is the more proven commodity.
Ryan Mallett Visits Seahawks
Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett has a visit scheduled with the Seahawks, amongst several other teams, next month.
Hard to read into these kinds of things. Tim Ruskell was notoriously coy when it came to revealing his draft choices, talking up most of the logical selections and then turning around and taking the one guy he hadn't paid any attention to. Schneider has not bothered with such games, having met with both Russell Okung and Earl Thomas before the draft.
Also, as a first-round quarterback, Mallett will be expected to schedule visits with more teams than players of other positions might. It's therefore difficult to read into these visits as indicators of potential interest, except to say that the Seahawks are not forgoing their due diligence on the top 4 QB's just because they're stuck at #25 and probably unable to get one.
I do find it interesting that Jake Locker has been invited to work out for only one team, as opposed to the multiple visits of Mallett, Cam Newton, and Blaine Gabbert. Of course, that could be because Locker's pro day isn't until the 30th.
The Little Guys
Seahawks Draft Blog lists some late-round prospects that Seattle has visited with. S Chris Conte, OT D.J. Young, QB Mike Coughlin (backup at Boise State), and LB Lawrence Wilson lead the list. LB Justin Houston will also work out for the Seahawks. There was also Montana tackle Michael Person, who has a fan in a knowledgeable high school coach I know; he says that tackles in Montana tend to project as guards in the NFL, but Person definitely has the attitude looked for by new Seattle O-line coach Tom Cable.
Hometown Discount
K Olindo Mare has expressed a desire to return to Seattle and is willing to take a smaller contract to do so. His primary concern is not uprooting his family.
What's in a Name
Qwest's purchasing by CenturyLink foretells an imminent (but not yet confirmed) renaming of Qwest Field to CenturyLink Field.
Dave Krieg's Strike Beard provides some welcome perspective in this tizzy. I will merely add that, much like the neon green uniforms, nobody's going to care that much if the Seahawks are winning.
Will Herring Keeps Busy
Backup LB Will Herring is using his lockout time productively by opening a local fitness center. Says he also has plans to compete for a starting spot. Sounds familiar.
Peter King of Sports Illustrated is now denying that the Seahawks were the team to offer a first-rounder for Kevin Kolb. CSN Philly cites a source claiming that this fervent suitor of Kolb's is in fact the Arizona Cardinals. Since it's ridiculous to think that the Cards would sacrifice the #5 pick in 2011 for Kolb, the most likely offer was a 2012 first-rounder.
The Cornerback Chase
Adam Schefter names the Seahawks as a likely candidate to pursue former Oakland CB Nnamdi Asomugha. This looks like mere speculation, though we should make room for Schefter's reputation and the validity of his information flow.
On the other hand, Tony Pauline of TFY Draft Insider reports that Seattle could turn elsewhere in its CB hunt: Jimmy Smith of Colorado, a draft possibility at #25. Rob Staton has long rated Smith higher than most and remains convinced that his talent is worth the character risk revealed at the Combine, after which several teams supposedly scratched Smith from their draft boards.
I personally lean towards Asomugha. He'd be incredibly expensive, yes, but he plays a foundational position and plays it better than almost anyone in the league. He's getting up there in age, but like Champ Bailey and Charles Woodson, he has the physical/mental profile of a CB who ages well. Seattle has plenty of cap room and can afford to make waves in free agency. What we don't know is how such pricey, assured-to-start signings would fit into Pete Carroll's competition philosophy, which eschewed a big name like T.J. Houshmandzadeh in favor of the cheap Mike Williams and the unknown Ben Obomanu.
Smith, on the other hand, will reveal how Carroll and John Schneider weigh character risks. The team has signed questionable personalities like Williams, Lendale White, and Marshawn Lynch, but none of those were terribly costly to sign or to cut. Smith's status as a first-round pick, would skew that cost-benefit ratio quite a bit. Carroll looks for motivated players and complete embracing of the team philosophy, and the big knock on Smith is that he plays lazy and acts self-entitled. This accusation itself sounds a bit lazy, the kind of typically vague and intangible criticism that could be genuine or a plant. Even so, in my judgment, Asomugha is the more proven commodity.
Ryan Mallett Visits Seahawks
Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett has a visit scheduled with the Seahawks, amongst several other teams, next month.
Hard to read into these kinds of things. Tim Ruskell was notoriously coy when it came to revealing his draft choices, talking up most of the logical selections and then turning around and taking the one guy he hadn't paid any attention to. Schneider has not bothered with such games, having met with both Russell Okung and Earl Thomas before the draft.
Also, as a first-round quarterback, Mallett will be expected to schedule visits with more teams than players of other positions might. It's therefore difficult to read into these visits as indicators of potential interest, except to say that the Seahawks are not forgoing their due diligence on the top 4 QB's just because they're stuck at #25 and probably unable to get one.
I do find it interesting that Jake Locker has been invited to work out for only one team, as opposed to the multiple visits of Mallett, Cam Newton, and Blaine Gabbert. Of course, that could be because Locker's pro day isn't until the 30th.
The Little Guys
Seahawks Draft Blog lists some late-round prospects that Seattle has visited with. S Chris Conte, OT D.J. Young, QB Mike Coughlin (backup at Boise State), and LB Lawrence Wilson lead the list. LB Justin Houston will also work out for the Seahawks. There was also Montana tackle Michael Person, who has a fan in a knowledgeable high school coach I know; he says that tackles in Montana tend to project as guards in the NFL, but Person definitely has the attitude looked for by new Seattle O-line coach Tom Cable.
Hometown Discount
K Olindo Mare has expressed a desire to return to Seattle and is willing to take a smaller contract to do so. His primary concern is not uprooting his family.
What's in a Name
Qwest's purchasing by CenturyLink foretells an imminent (but not yet confirmed) renaming of Qwest Field to CenturyLink Field.
Dave Krieg's Strike Beard provides some welcome perspective in this tizzy. I will merely add that, much like the neon green uniforms, nobody's going to care that much if the Seahawks are winning.
Will Herring Keeps Busy
Backup LB Will Herring is using his lockout time productively by opening a local fitness center. Says he also has plans to compete for a starting spot. Sounds familiar.
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