Defending the Bruce Irvin Pick

After coolly trading down to snatch up extra late-round picks (a mid-4th and a mid-6th), the Seattle Seahawks have sent the league into an incredulous tizzy by selecting DE Bruce Irvin out of West Virginia - a guy that, in defiance of the talking-head community, was projected as a Top 15 pick by at least seven teams, according to a PFT source.

Though I haven't done any scouting of the guy myself (although Kip Earlywine has, even if he didn't anticipate first-round interest - but who did?), I've been as able as anyone to pick up on the basic motifs of why people think this is an enormous reach:

1. He's not Melvin Ingram.

2. He's a pure pass rusher, and won't play three downs.

3. He's not Quinton Coples.

4. His production dropped off last year.

5. He's not Courtney Upshaw.

6. He's got off-the-field issues.

If your response is an odd number, please slap yourself in the face with a large trout. Fair discussion involves Irvin on his own merit, not why you didn't get your guy.

The most sensical worry for me is #2. Some have called Bruce Irvin "the best pure pass rusher in the draft", and that title carries both excitement and doubt. The paradigm for the first round is to look for complete players, guys who can rush the passer without sacrificing rush stoutness. Bruce Irvin is not such a three-down player. Pete has already tagged him a Leo. His role is to bring down quarterbacks, plain and simple.

However, if you're calling this a reach because Irvin is a pure pass rusher, you're ignoring recent draft history. Paradigms change and the NFL has become a pass-happy glut of passing passfests, with unprepared QB's going in the top 12 picks and pass rushers gaining more and more value. Jason Pierre-Paul and Aldon Smith, both guys that relied on athleticism and were tagged as pure pass rushers (or sure busts), also went higher than draftniks expected.

Neither team is regretting their picks right now. Their teams schemed them into success, found ways to get them into the backfield. The result has been double-digit sacks and a balancing of power in their respective divisions. A move like Irvin is surprising, but not without recent precedent. As the league shifts toward the pass, expect defensive priorities to shift with it.

Another team that's shown savvy with scheming pass rushers is the Seahawks, who in 2010 traded a more complete defensive end in Darryl Tapp in order to pick up Chris Clemons. The latter has been immensely productive for Seattle over two years despite being the line's only major source of pass rush. He has not compromised the defense by being terrible against the run, nor has he struggled by being somewhat underweight (both red flags against Irvin, who produced in college despite similar size). That speaks to Seattle's scheming on the defensive line.

Now, if Seattle can coax around 20 sacks from a late-20s defensive end without elite speed, what could they coax from a rookie who ran a 4.4 at the Combine?

Pete and John are throwing around some pretty distinguished names in comparison to Irvin. They've talked about his uniqueness, compared his speed to Jevon Kearse, evoked the burst of Von Miller, and announced a desire to deploy Irvin like Clay Matthews. Those are easy things to say from a podium, but they give us a framework and a hint of (surprise, surprise) an evil plan. They also don't have the same definitions for "3-down player" that you or I do, and for good reason. With defense rapidly becoming a mental game of chess against quarterbacks, pre-snap motion and confusing looks are becoming the name of the game. Mike Mayock rightly called our defense an "amoeba", similar to how Rex Ryan twists his defense. Count on Pete to find ways to get Irvin involved in all phases of the defense, including 1st and 2nd down. And with Clemons getting up there in age and likely to leave the lineup sooner rather than later, Irvin will find his playing time.

Irvin also deserves recognition for his upside. For those pointing out his lack of 2011 production, from what I've read, his relatively quiet 2011 has been placed on the shoulders of his coaching and scheming. Like Brandon Mebane or Jason Jones, Irvin was used last year in ways that don't fit his gifts, such as 3-4 defensive end. He hasn't been infused with a wide variety of pass-rush moves, and that's something that can be improved at the pro level. I've seen it argued that his coaches treated him as an instinctive player who would end up thinking too much if his game got too complicated - maybe. I don't know. But I certainly don't see a polished, finished product with only two years of decent football ahead of him, a la Tim Ruskell's picks.

It sounds for all the world like Bruce Irvin perfectly fits Seattle's vision for pass rush, and would very likely be at least a second-rounder if not for the off-the-field red flags. Pete Carroll coveted him for USC, knows him well, and we know he's not dogmatically put off by off-the-field concerns (therefore dealing with motif #6). Also, frankly, I'm relieved to see him NOT wringing his hands over run defense for once - plenty of talent in that area already on this defense. We didn't need our first-round pick to be complete; we needed our defense to be complete. Irvin might do that. The NFL is becoming a specialist's game, and in his singular role, Irvin could excel.

For those who were fine with taking Irvin in a later round - you have to remember that we aren't privy to teams' big boards. Michael Lombardi of the NFL Network has said that Irvin wasn't going to get past San Francisco's first round pick, and they know a thing or two about defense. There was the PFT source saying that at least seven teams were expecting Irvin to go in the Top 15. Teams rate players differently than draftniks - James Carpenter was bound to be taken within three picks of where Seattle got him - and that's a big factor in how teams decide their picks. Seattle got their guy when he was available, and even had the cool-headedness to slip down the board a bit and pile on the late-round picks while waiting.

And once again, in this day and age of football, being able to consistently get to the QB has a tendency to boost your draft stock almost automatically, regardless of what else you can do. This pick has to be viewed through that filter.

Besides...if this front office can coax Pro Bowlers out of 5th rounders and CFL imports, is anyone really THAT worried?

Class, Competition, and the Change That Might Not Be: Part 1

So, we've signed a starting quarterback with two starts under his belt who doesn't fit Pete's "mobile point guard" profile all that well, and NOW it's a good offseason?

Okay.

It's nice when your thoughts organize themselves into convenient categories. My reaction to Seattle's signing of Matt Flynn is threefold. In brief: He's far from a bust-in-waiting. Still, it's a little surprising...and a little revealing...how much excitement has been generated in Seattle by a 7th-round QB who has flashed success in very limited starting experience in the NFL's most efficient offense. Harsh way to put it? Sure. But not untrue, and not irrelevant.

I'll elaborate on Flynn later. First I want to talk about how his arrival affects our incumbent quarterback, Tarvaris Jackson.

I'm the last person to suggest that our QB situation last year was ideal. I know exactly what we have in Tarvaris Jackson: a "bridge QB" with glaring holes in his game who will probably never survive in the playoffs. And towards the end of the year as Jackson experienced a solid stretch as a "game manager", a lot of folks seemed content with that and gave Jackson credit for what he had accomplished. It's a rebuild, we said. We'll get there.

Then free agency came around, and the scent of new possibilities seemed to trigger all kinds of panting amongst the fan base.

Lukewarm on the Red Bryant Re-Signing

DE Red Bryant is a favorite son of Seahawks fans. He's an exciting comeback story, an opportunistic playmaker in the mold of Carroll's perpetually overachieving "dirty defense", and certainly has a role in Seattle's lopsided scheme.

Today he finally signed an offer Seattle had on the table for a while, 5 years for $35 million. That was bigger than I was expecting. It was 40% bigger than Brandon Mebane's contract last year. I feel a bit like a stormtrooper in the midst of the celebration over Emperor Palpatine's death, but I have a few nagging reservations about this.


- First, it complicates efforts to sign DE Mario Williams. But this doesn't qualify as the foremost reason, because Williams to Seattle was never a certainty and perhaps never even a likelihood. I don't recall reading anything that really convinces me of drooling interest on Seattle's part. (While I was typing, Mike Sando confirmed this.) Outbidding four other teams to give him the largest DE contract in NFL history wouldn't exactly fit Carroll/Schneider's style. I'd qualify that by saying that Carroll/Schneider's style is to win at the end of the day, and Mario Williams would certainly service that. He'd have been a young, scheme-fitting, all-around superstar at a position of desperate need. But disappointment with Bryant over a free-agent signing that may never even have happened wouldn't be fair to our favorite relative of Jacob Green.


- Secondly, it takes the "Bryant experiment" and turns it into a long-term fixture. Red has a reputation of making life complicated for opponents' run games, but after two years I'm still not convinced that his impact is all that. What he did in 2010 was too circumstantial to trust, lambasting bad running teams in his first six games and happening to get hurt (along with the rest of the line) right as Seattle reached the worst part of its schedule. He stayed healthy in 2011, but Seattle's run defense didn't. It was declining towards the latter half of the season as speedier backs like Demarco Murray and Roy Helu found traction against them.

Something else that continues to decline is our pass rush. Everyone agrees that this is an issue, and while Bryant isn't an active part of the problem, he doesn't do much to help (and isn't intended to). He's a big guy with unusual quickness, but not enough agility or closing speed to harass quarterbacks, especially scrambling ones. This leaves our front pass rush up to one individual, which weakens it right away, as one of the elements of a successful pass rush is unpredictable origin. Carroll seemingly has plans to compensate with one hell of a blitzing linebacker corps, but that's not a catch-all...it requires blitzing lanes and still leaves coverage holes.

With due respect to wrinkles, if there are four players on the line when the ball is snapped, it's a 4-3, and a 4-3 mandates pressure from the 4. That isn't going to be Red, and any pass-rush specialist that spells him to get it will have to be cheap. That, even more than the cap hit, means no Mario - or anyone expensive, for that matter. You don't spend $22+ million annually on one position being shared by two players. Mario couldn't even displace Chris Clemons, because that would preserve the original problem - front QB pressure coming from only one place, a strategic disadvantage. To really blow this thing open, pass-rush reinforcements would need to go right where Red has just been entrenched, and not just on third down. "Hey look, Red's coming off the field, they must be gunning for Brady!"

Bryant's contract, however, signals Carroll's approval of a system that overemphasizes run-stopping ability in a passing league, keeps what pass rush we have constricted to LDE, and also tends to telegraph our intentions at the line by whomever appears at RDE. Reading similar complaints from me a year ago makes me cringe as to how simplistic they were, but Pete's habit last year of swapping Red out with pass-rush specialist(ishs) on 3rd down makes me think he agrees. Which leads me thirdly to...


- ...the statement that Red is worth $10 million more than Brandon Mebane. A lot of folks already disagree with this. 5Y/$35M is not insane for a DE, but it's awkward to justify for one who usually plays two downs, generates no QB pressure, doesn't take well to kicking inside, and should rightfully be playing in a 3-4. It's being said that Bryant's influence in the locker room explains the added value, as does the market - New England was supposed to be interested at one point, and possibly drove the price up.
.

This certainly isn't a fatal signing or anywhere near a dangerous one. There are plenty of options, as some have theorized - an enterprising schemesmith like Carroll is no doubt still at his whiteboard right now. We are looking at pass-rushing linebacker types in the draft, as well as Jason Jones in free agency (a 3-tech at last! Yay!)

Let's call this what it is - somewhat overpaying for a one-dimensional specialist who's crucial to the team identity but whose usage paints the pass rush into a corner and potentially blocks any big draft investment in defensive end. It's silly to conclude that this front office is financially naive - they were willing to let this heavily valued player test the market rather than eat up (har har) the franchise tag - but some heads around Seattle are cocked.

I suppose we'll see where this goes. I do look forward to blocked field goals all year long. And while I wouldn't expect any pricey defensive ends to appear on Seattle's roster in the near future, money has never been an obstacle to Carroll finding talent. After all we've seen so far, Pete gets the benefit of a doubt from this blogger.

As if the title "blogger" made me any sort of authority on this stuff. Haha.

17 Blurbs on Peyton Manning and the Seahawks

Jason La Canfora of NFL.com has recently opined that the Seattle Seahawks are probably on the short list of suitors for Peyton Manning's post-Colts services.

Imagine this...at the VMAC.

Amongst La Canfora's arguments:

- The regime change in Indianapolis ensures a quarterback change as surely as it did in Carolina a year ago. The availability of Andrew Luck makes it easy for the Colts to move on, and Manning's recent comments, his medical condition, and the team's cap issues only seem to strengthen this likelihood.

- Manning's pay-me-or-cut-me roster bonus is due for a decision before the official start of free agency, effectively eliminating Indy's ability to trade him.

- Peyton has "earned the right to be picky" and will probably be looking for a quieter, lower-pressure division and a young, rising, team with a stable locker room and enough talent to where he won't have to pull his usual elevating-an-entire-team act. That narrows the list of candidates considerably, with Seattle and Arizona standing out.


17 quick blurbs from me on this possibility:


17.     La Canfora's article is mere speculation. Sensible, articulate, and exciting speculation, but nonetheless there's no element of Manning's actual intentions in there. For all we know, the anonymous "general managers and executives" that La Canfora cites could refer to Tim Ruskell and Dan Snyder.

Alex Smith and the Real Wolf

People have been hailing Alex Smith's "arrival" for seven years, every time he posts the rare impressive win. It's never stuck. Smith "growing up" as a quarterback is such a common occurrence that I've come to ignore it when I hear it. How long will it be until his next choke? I wonder as I roll my eyes.

Last week's playoff gauntlet was a comforting reaffirmation of the value of defense, but that doesn't take away the influence of clutch QB play. A post by football analyst Greg Cosell highlights three fourth-quarter throws that Smith made to lift the 49ers to the NFC Championship.

Through Cosell's lens, the passes are not just timely, they're outstanding on their own merit. It's funny how everyone's default analysis is to credit the receiver for the big play, because the mechanics and subtleties of QB play are so rarely understood. To many fans, they're usually just the one tossing the ball, the receivers the ones going to get it. Cosell's breakdown reveals just how demanding these passes were and how small the margin of error was.

This redefines "game manager". As Cosell aptly put, every team that wants a Lombardi will eventually require the quarterback to adapt and overcome. Whether that's on the occasional inevitable third-down-and-long, or the fourth quarter with the game on the line, this moment will come. The 49ers have built their scheme around minimizing these moments for Smith, essentially making him a game manager. When he beat the Saints, did he make himself worthy of these moments? Did he rephrase "game manager" to include epic throws, or did he transcend the phrase on his way to a new plateau of play?

Whatever the context, Smith was no doubt enabled by an awesome defense. Without that, Drew Brees is probably up by three touchdowns by the time Smith's epic fourth quarter rolls around. Last weekend demonstrated, with its surprising upset of two high-powered passing attacks, that defense is a necessary element in prolonged playoff runs. Seattle, by searching for a "game manager", is not stating a willingness to settle or succeed cheap at any cost. They're looking to protect their quarterback from playing on such an island as Drew Brees is, and this weekend goes a long ways toward validating their concern.

As a Seahawks fan, I'm continuing to induce vomiting amidst the 12th Man by complimenting Alex Smith. But elite throws deserve recognition, and they solicit thought on what Seattle should be looking for in a quarterback. Do we hold out for the all-time elite QB whose origins remain a seeming mystery, or do we seek, as a baseline, a QB who can come through in the clutch and work from there?

As of today, I'm considerably more comfortable with the latter option. Now on to seeing if these defenses can stop Tom Brady.

Why 2011 Isn't Over for the Seahawks...and Why We Might Cheer for the 49ers

If you're a fan of the Seattle Seahawks, you should be deeply engrossed in this year's playoffs. The 'Hawks themselves may not be in contention anymore, but the contests between the remaining teams have a lot to say about the current state of the NFL and the vision that Pete Carroll has for this team. Even if the Seahawks aren't auditioning for a Lombardi, the model upon which Carroll is building them is.

So the 12th Man should be paying attention.

More specifically, that blueprint is auditioning in the body of teams that share it, like San Francisco and Baltimore. These are teams built around rock-solid defense, smashmouth running games, and a limited quarterback, much like the direction Seattle is heading. There's obviously talent here; the question is how it's deployed, to what goals. And, of course, whether those teams have the ability to stop or out-race the juggernaut passing offenses of the reigning Super Bowl kings: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady.

In a way, the NFL playoffs is a showdown, not just between teams, but between team-building philosophies.

Is Matt Flynn An Upgrade?

The short answer is, it all depends on what you want out of a QB.

That was my attempt at being mysterious.  I am all about the longer answer anyway, so here goes.

There is some buzz right now that Seattle is interested in Mr. Matt Flynn.  Why wouldn't they be?  To a front office committed to turning over every rock, and committed to always getting more picks, the idea of getting a free agent QB from Green Bay who upgrades the team has to be attractive.  This is one rock that definitely will be turned over.

First off, Flynn should be free to sign as a free agent.  The Packers have free agents to retain this year who could absorb the franchise tag, primarily Finley. The new CBA supposedly has some rules to prevent teams from tagging players they don't actually intend to retain, a la Matt Cassel, and the Packers, while not against the cap, are not way below it either.  That doesn't mean that Ted Thompson won't test those rules. If Finley is signed during the team's exclusive negotiating window, it would leave Flynn free for that.

Flynn will be a hot commodity.  His last performance is still echoing around the league; when you set a team record for touchdown passes in a game, there will be echoes.  A closer examination of his passing in that game shows that three of those passes for touchdowns were pretty much all YAC, but the passes that set them up were decent.  Watch every pass in that game and it is hard to think of all 480 yards as having been earned the hard way, as Detroit's secondary looked almost disinterested in tackling or covering, but it was accomplished in wind and light snow, which is a scouting consideration.  Potentially, Seattle could play critical future playoff games in places like Green Bay, Chicago, and New York, and a quarterback who doesn't shrivel in the winter is important.

Flynn is a fit Seattle's offense in most respects.  He fits the bill as a point guard quarterback.  Athletic enough and mobile enough, Flynn did an above average job against Detroit of identifying and then exploiting match ups.  He is not a laser armed surgeon, and expecting him to dissect a defense by fitting the ball into tight spaces 30 yards down field would be a disaster, but Seattle's offense does not do that much anyway.  In fact, in watching Flynn against Detroit, a lot of the playcalls were eerily similar to Seattle OC Darell Bevell's - everything just looked better.  Maybe because his targets are better players. 

Here are some of the things Flynn does better than Tarvaris Jackson:

Indiana Carroll and the Quarterback Crusade

For a while, the Seahawks' 2011 campaign was just one long draft discussion. Who are we getting at QB next year - that's all we cared about. Then the running game and defense suddenly emerged and started making a regular season out of it. That was fun, and hugely heartening. 2011 proved more informative and promising than we had expected.

But now, with the 49ers loss, we're swinging back into the holding pattern despite having a little football still left to play. And with that reversion, some shelved concerns are coming back with a vengeance.

A lot of us don't trust Pete Carroll to get our future quarterback right. I confess I don't.

And this despite Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider having done what most of us would have considered impossible: not only dump an entire roster whose financial footprint made it nigh undumpable, but replace most of that roster with talented high-ceiling starters - within two offseasons.

Wait...lockout...one and a half offseasons!

The rational sliver of my mind says, "What more do these guys need to prove to you?" They've validated themselves at virtually every position, spectacularly in some cases (Kam Chancellor! Doug Baldwin! ZOMG RICHARD SHERMAN!!!!!!!1!11). But when it comes to the cornerstone of quarterback, we're tetchy. Anxiously rehashing the debates. Wringing out the talking points without mercy. Flooding Rob Staton with page hits. All the signs of someone who needs a lot more reassurance.

DVR Run Analysis - San Francisco @ Seattle; 24-Dec-2011

Here's my DVR Run Analysis for the 49ers/Seahawks game...

Note: You can also read the run analysis of the Bears, Rams, Eagles, and Redskins games.

We lost. Dang! But our running game was amazingly good. We had zero plays for a loss. Only five of 25 plays were for less than three yards. We scored a running TD - the first against SF this year. Lynch ran for over 100 yards - the first 100 yard run game allowed by the Niners in the past 36 games. To run this well against the toughest run D in the league is a heck of an accomplishment. Though we lost the game and are eliminated from the playoffs, we've got something to build upon next year.

Overall, our planned runs earned 121 yards on 25 carries for a 4.8 YPC average. Lynch has scored a TD in eleven games in a row, extending his record. Beast Mode accounted for 107 yards on 21 carries for 5.1 YPC and one historic touchdown. This was quite the turnaround after our weak running game in Chicago. That we beat the Bears and lost to the Niners, however, shows that there is more to football than running...

* Q1 - We ran for 3, 3, 18, 5, and 4 yards. That adds up to 33 yards and 6.6 YPC. One first down. Unfortunately, I didn't see any of it as Fox showed the conclusion of the Giants-Jets game to the Portland market.

State of the Seahawks; Forecast, Clear Vision

At the time of Mr. Carroll's hire, the words "Clear Vision" were thrown around with sustained conviction by Pete and John, met with derision by the media, and met with skepticism by fans inured to front office promises.  The cheerleader from USC says anything, because he is so pumped and jacked, said the college coaches never make it in the NFL crowd.  He doesn't really want to coach in Seattle, he is just running from the Reggie Bush scandal, sniveled the pundits.  Pros do not buy into Rah Rah coaching at this level, said every damn talking head.  Seattle was accused of almost racism in the hiring process for a near violation of the Rooney rule, Pete was releasing a poorly timed book that touted his philosophy, and every player who ever played at USC was linked to the Hawks future by every reporter and blogger with a hunch.

Vision is a funny word that must confuse the hell out of people just learning English.  Rhymes with fission, while breaking phonetic rules.  I have good vision.  Awesome.  My vision needs correction.  Coke bottle correction, or contacts?  I just had a vision.  Kook.  Pete and John share a vision.  Bull.

Those were dark days for many Hawk fans. Foggy days.  Rainy days with low visibility.  Pete's vision was only clear to a few people.  His corrective lenses were of a prescription available to few of us.  Binocular in one eye, Telescope in the other.

I freely admit to not having a clue about Seattle's direction after Pete was hired.  I knew I was glad the Keystone Cops, aka Ruskell and Mora, were gone, but hope is not vision.  Sometimes, hope is less transparent than pure misery.

Fast forward to Week 16, 2011.  Seattle still could finish with a losing record.  Seattle is assured of at least the same record as last year, and if they do finish that way, the superficial will have their say.  Pete will be a .500 career coach in their eyes.

Do you care, or will statements like that just be your new filter for separating the ignorant from the informed?

Tyrannical Seahawks torment and terrify adorable baby Bears quarterback, win 38-14

King Midas II

Oh what a wonderful feeling.  This must be what it feels like.  Its certainly a new feeling for me, to be on the winning end of a game in which one of the teams made a complete embarrassment of themselves.  Although the context is almost completely different, I can imagine a lot of Bears fans reacting to this game the same way the Seahawks fans did after any of their numerous ugly blowout losses to end 2009.  This one in particular.

The Bears were a wounded team, and the Seahawks a hot team.  Despite this being a 10 am game in December at Soldier field, I think most Seahawks fans expected a win today, and even most Bears fans weren't exactly optimistic.  But to lose like this- getting outscored thirty one to nothing in the second half after handily outplaying Seattle in the first half... wow.  The Bears could have improved to 8-6 today and could have very much stayed in the hunt for the wildcard.  But beyond that, at some point teams just have to play for pride, and the Bears gave their home fans what I can only imagine was one of the most pathetic displays of football all season at the worst possible time.  The sense of pained apathy on the fans faces in the second half was palpable.  The only smiles in that crowd belonged to people wearing blue jerseys and holding skittles signs.  Reading stuff like this after the game was delicious in a Scott Tenorman's tears kind of way.

The Bears Defense and the Uselessness of the YPG Stat

In trying to get a bead on tomorrow's matchup against the Chicago Bears, you might stumble across the fact that Chicago's defense is giving up 358.2 yards per game, ranking them 20th in the league in that particular stat. Which might encourage one to anticipate an easy game tomorrow.

This is why simple cumulative stats like YPG are rather empty. They never tell the whole story. You might say, "Well, surely it at least hints at the reality, right?" No, in this case it pretty much flies in the face of it. And not just because of our lingering awareness that the Bears have talent on their defense.

Did you know that the Bears are the most passed-against defense in the league? They've faced 529 attempts, 40.7 per game. In contrast, only four teams have been rushed on less (303 attempts, 23.3 per game). By nature, pass-heavy offenses average more yardage than rush-heavy offenses, so right away I'm thinking "inflated passing totals".

The reasons vary. This season, Chicago has faced Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Matt Stafford twice, Josh Freeman, Michael Vick, Philip Rivers, and Carson Palmer. Chicago's strength-of-schedule is currently tied for 7th hardest in the league. Those QB's may not all be leading impressive playoff-bound teams, but they are capable of putting up good passing totals regardless. For example, Newton, Freeman, and Palmer all posted good mileage (374, 264, and 301 yards respectively) in competitive games against the Bears.

You can also thank Chicago's own pre-Caleb Hanie scoring ability (on both sides of the ball) for this inflation, as they had Atlanta, Minnesota, Detroit, and San Diego buried and frantically passing to catch up in the second half.

And finally, the offenses of Green Bay, New Orleans, and Carolina really just kinda don't bother running much. Except in the fourth quarter. Then they run. To kill the clock and preserve their enormous lead.

Yet despite being burdened with more passing defense than any other team, the Bears have allowed only 16 touchdowns with 17 interceptions, a Yards Per Attempt (YPA) of 6.7, a 31% 1st-down percentage, 77.3 opposing QB rating, and 19.6 points per game. They're top ten in the league in all those categories.

YPG stats will tell you none of this. They don't take into account the effects of game situation (opposing teams rushing more to kill the clock or passing more to beat it) or opponent quality (beating the league's worst QB's in 2007 didn't make the Ruskell Seahawks defense good). For a more comprehensive stat, try Football Outsiders' DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which has Chicago as the #7 pass defense (and the #3 run defense).

So...YPG, pretty much telling you the opposite of reality. The Bears can stop the pass better than the two teams we faced last, against whom Tarvaris Jackson was able to game-manage.

Tomorrow's game should be a messy defensive slugfest along the lines of the Browns game, except interesting (and with bigger ramifications). Lynch has already broken 100 yards against an even better run defense than Chicago (that'd be the Ravens), and he has an offensive scheme that has exceeded expectations in opening lanes for him while still protecting the passing game. But factor in the mounting injuries on this O-line and the harshness of Soldier Field in December, and this remains a tough matchup.

The Seahawks' key to victory is really our secondary, who should be on the lookout for any wild passes on the part of Caleb Hanie.

A defeat at Chicago's hands all but washes away our playoff hopes. I'm not sure we'll be eliminated mathematically (head-to-head tiebreakers aren't considered in a three-way Wild Card tie), but the Seahawks' control of their own destiny will shift almost entirely to other teams' hands.

DVR Run Analysis - St Louis @ Seattle; 12-Dec-2011

Note: You can also read the run analysis of the Eagles and Redskins games.

Here's my DVR Run Analysis for the Rams/Seahawks game...

* The first play of the game was great, but for most of the first half, the blocking was tentative. No surprise as this is McQuistan's first game at LT. It's also Jeanpierre's first start at RG and his first game playing next to Giacomini. In the second half, the line gained confidence, speed, and more yards per carry.

* Overall, our planned runs earned 140 yards on 26 carries for a 5.4 YPC average - the same average as last week. Lynch topped 100 yards for the fifth time in six weeks. Beast Mode accounted for 119 yards on 22 carries for 5.0 YPC and one touchdown. He really came alive in the second half with 5.6 YPC.

* Q1 - We had one bad play in six tries, netting 29 yards for 4.8 YPC. Two first downs.

[14:50] 1st and 10. Perfect blocking on a stretch left play. Gallery and Morrah go for LBs. Morrah nicked the DL to help McQuistan gain leverage. Robinson goes to the safety on the edge. Tate rides his CB downfield. Lynch follows Robinson, reads his block, and cuts inside for a gain of 13 and a 1st down. Beauty in action.

Mario Williams and Other Good Free Agents for Seattle

Is it wrong to be dreaming of improving the roster with 3 games still left to play?  If it is, why does it feel so right?  Is that why it is called rosterbating?  Moral dilemmas aside,  let's dig into the Hawks' defensive roster needs in free agency. There is one player that is obviously the focus of this article, but while on the subject, why don't we look at a few other names for just a moment. (Your moment, not mine. This stuff takes way longer to type than to read.)

First off, in two free agent periods, Mr. Pete Carroll and Mr. John Schneider have established that they are not as free-agent phobic as Schneider's roots in Green Bay, and even his words during his first offseason, may have suggested.  I expect that John and Pete are also not going to make as many free agent acquisitions in the future as they did in the truncated 2011 free agency period. However, they have cap space, and they have chutzpah, so I do expect to hear some names. Maybe just from rumor-mongers like Incarcerated Bob, but heard nonetheless.  Keep in mind that so far, they only break the bank for youngish free agents.

Such as...

The Ignored Seahawks

What gesture is he really making?

Alright, this is just getting ridiculous.

I've never been a huge fan of FOXSports' Adam Schein, and this week he has joined the chorus of national writers who are incapable of interpreting a Seahawks' win (over the Eagles, in this case) as anything but the opposition throwing the game:

I took the time to do a video rant on Cosmic SCHEIN this week on FOXSports.com to explain why the Eagles shouldn’t fire Reid. And then his team travels cross country and loses to the Seattle Seahawks. Actually, they didn’t lose. They got manhandled for three quarters by a relative bunch of clowns. Forget the 31-14 score. The effort and execution were pathetic all game.

That's the way this cookie always crumbles for the national media. The Seahawks never win, the other team just loses. No Seahawks victory contains any element of the Seahawks doing anything to actually earn or deserve it. It's always the fault of whatever team went into a Seahawks game cocky and came out clocked. To the national media, the Seahawks are an inert, faceless element with no sentient qualities or nameworthy players except their sucky QB, which other teams just seem to trip over because they weren't looking.

I'm usually one to try and put the shoe on the other foot. I try to see all sides and not let my fandom color things, and sometimes it makes others question that fandom. Let's get the perspective out of the way: The Eagles really did play like they didn't want it. They played like the Seahawks did for Charlie Whitehurst. They were missing three crucial starters, five once Mike Williams was done falling on people's heads, and were playing on the road (big-time) after a short week. Vince Young is just not an NFL quarterback, and three of his four interceptions came on awful throws/decisions. Their LB corps sucks in almost every facet. All things being equal, the Eagles really did make enough independent mistakes to lose the game.

If only things were equal to the pundits. Enough is enough.

DVR Run Analysis - Philadelphia @ Seattle; 1-Dec-2011

Note: Click here to find Jon's previous DVR Analysis of the Redskins game.

Here's my DVR Run Analysis for the Eagles/Seahawks game...

* This was the week of the breakaway run. We lost some consistency this week as we had five runs for loses and twelve of thirty planned runs with gains of less than three yards. Half of our runs were for less than four. I attribute this more to an over-aggressive defense than inconsistent play from the offense. Yeah, they stopped us at times, but they also got burned - badly.

* Overall, we got 162 yards on 30 planned carries for a 5.4 YPC average. Marshawn Lynch topped 100 yards for the fourth time in five weeks. Beast Mode accounted for 148 yards on 22 carries for 6.7 YPC and two touchdowns. Yeah, the Eagles got burned.

* Q1 - After an Illegal shift penalty due to WR Golden Tate watching a late 12th Man ceremony, we had only one bad play in eight runs. We got 51 yards for 6.4 YPC, including a first down and one of the sweetest TDs you'll ever see.

Marshawn Lynch gives "Dream Team" future nightmares, Seahawks crush Eagles 31-14

Pete on the hot seat?  Don't make me laugh.

Has there been a season with more unexpected things than 2011?  A lot of fans looked at the schedule before the season began and saw games like Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Washington as near certain wins.  The Falcons, Giants, Ravens and Eagles games were near certain losses.  Seattle very nearly completed a comeback against the heavily favored Falcons, but otherwise, six games- that's half the season folks- has gone exactly the opposite of preseason expectation.

And sure, the Eagles came into Seattle the NFL's biggest disappointment sporting a 4-7 record, but they also led the entire NFL in offense for much of the year, and even after losing Vick, they still hover just behind the #2 team, the New England Patriots. That's due in large part to LeSean McCoy.  As my fantasy oriented brother informed me before the game, McCoy has been the best fantasy running back in all of the NFL this year.  McCoy lived up to that repuation and then some, even earning some surprisingly well deserved comparisons to Barry Sanders.  Like Sanders, McCoy is the master into turning a minus four yard broken play into a big gain.

Seattle's run defense is big, mean and nasty.  And really good, obviously.  But its not terribly fast- something both LeSean McCoy and Vince Young capitalized on all night long.  Thankfully, the Seahawks really came to play tonight.  Marshawn Lynch, Tarvaris Jackson, and Seattle's secondary all played the best games of their young Seahawks careers.  If Seattle had played at the same level as they had in any of the previous games (yes, even the Raven's game), I'm not sure it would have been enough tonight.  McCoy was ballin', and though Young threw four picks, I'd actually put more credit on the Seahawks defense for making athletic plays on the ball rather than blame Young for making terrible decisions (except for the Hawthorne pick six).  The Eagles didn't rack up a ton of yards, but they did lead several sustained, efficient drives.  Seattle's ability to kill drives with interceptions proved to be crucial.


Seattle did more than enough when it was on offense, totaling 347 yards of offense despite running the ball twice as many times as they passed.  It didn't start that way though, very nearly beginning with a delay of game on the very first play, something I've never seen before.  Yet it very nearly did, as a bizarre miscommunication with Golden Tate regarding the raising of the 12th man flag caused Seattle to run up to the line mere seconds before time expired.  The rush to snap the ball (with zeros showing) resulted in an illegal shift penalty, a result of not allowing enough time for players to set positions before the snap. 

Tarvaris Jackson has made good progress this year regarding pocket presence and extending plays, but today he did a nasty backslide, taking multiple sacks a decent quarterback wouldn't during the first half.  Despite those hickups, Jackson finished with 13 completions on only 16 attempts for 190 yards:  good for a completion rate of 81% and a YPA of 11.9.  He also added a sensational touchdown pass to Golden Tate and avoided an interception for what feels like the first time in an eternity. 

It was only the third time all season that Jackson went without a pick, and only the fourth time all season that he finished with a positive TD/INT ratio.  His game passer rating was 137, more than 40 points higher than his previous Seahawks high.  Rather surprisingly, it was the best passer rating by any Seahawks quarterback going back all the way to the Titans in 2005.  I don't want to make too big a deal out of a performance which only had 16 passes, but writing this post, it occurs to me that Jackson played far better than I thought he did while watching the game.

The storyline of the game was the running backs.  McCoy is having a pro-bowl season, and he's averaging 94 yards per game this season.  Since week nine (Dallas), Lynch has been averaging 118 yards per game.  Not that you would expect Lynch to keep this up forever, but that level of production over a full season would equal 1891 rushing yards and 19 total touchdowns.  That stat line seem familiar to anyone?   I've offered up a full Mea Culpa on Lynch which you can read here, if you haven't already.  Its crystal clear that Lynch isn't the same back he used to be.  A 4th and 5th for Lynch is beginning to look like one of the best trades in franchise history.

Finally, the secondary was incredible today.  Other than a coverage blip by Earl Thomas which helped setup the Eagles first touchdown, they gave Vince Young precious few easy targets, forcing him to dance around and buy time for what felt like forever on many plays.  Chancellor's interception was a thing of beauty.  Browner's first pick was a lucky repeat of his game sealing pick against the Giants, but his fourth quarter pick on a perfectly thrown deep ball was really a sight to behold.  I don't know if Browner could make up for last week's debacle with a single great performance, but I'd say he came pretty darn close tonight.  Its hard to believe he's the same guy who was getting us killed just four days ago.  David Hawthorne isn't part of the secondary, but he joined the fun with the slowest looking pick six I've seen in a good long while, due in large part to LeSean McCoy only jogging in pursuit, clearly demoralized into apathy by that point.  I'm sure he'll be getting an earful from Andy Reid next Monday.

Seattle is now 5-7.  Which isn't a great record exactly.  The 2009 Seahawks were 5-7 at one point.  But its at least respectable, and with two very winnable games remaining on the schedule, Seattle has a real chance to finish 7-9 or better.  That's a big accomplishment considering that Seattle's schedule is much harder this time around.  Seattle is probably out of the playoff hunt, but this season was never really about the playoffs.  It was about building a foundation for the future, namely the running game and the defense.  That kind of outlook makes a win like tonight's that much more exciting.  Seattle has claimed its third "statement win" of the season, and Jackson's performance tonight showed that Seattle is a very good team when the quarterback position produces its share.

• Brad Nessler and Mike Mayock called a great game.  If Nessler's voice seems familiar, its because he covers a lot of college football games, particularly in the SEC.  Its a very good combo and I look forward to seeing them cover more Seahawks games in the future.

• Marshawn Lynch against the NFC East in 2011:  492 yards rushing on 81 carries.  6.1 yards per carry.  5 total touchdowns.  That's a good way of getting national attention, I'd say.

• I wouldn't fret too much about the Eagles carving up our defense for most of the second half.  Seattle was protecting a big lead, and was playing its corners far off the ball to keep DeSean Jackson and Riley Cooper from burning them deep.  Seattle's corners are big and relatively fast, but they gain a considerable advantage from getting a shove at the line of scrimmage.  Seattle played it safe, but in doing so gave up this considerable advantage which helps corners, especially Brandon Browner, play up to their coverage potential.

• I really appreciate the classy gesture by Pete when he opted to kneel the ball inside the one yard line.  Going for the extra score might make Lynch and the fans happy, but it would be a very bitter ending which would stick in the Eagle's memory for a long time.  Seattle may very well face the Eagles in a pivotal game in the next couple seasons, perhaps even the playoffs.  I'd hate for the Eagles to have that extra chip on their shoulder if that happened.

• You really have to feel for Vince Young.  This game wasn't just a game for him, it was an audition for the rest of the NFL on national television.  Young made a few poor throws, but he was dealing with a very under-rated coverage group in Seattle and did a very impressive job extending plays.  In the end, he wound up with 4 interceptions which doesn't do his performance any justice at all.  After his Heater pick six, Young was visibly fighting back tears as he realized where his NFL career is heading.  After his fourth pick (on a great throw no less), I just felt terrible for the guy.  Here's hoping he works things out down the road. 

• Golden Tate continues his impressive progress at receiver.  He needs to work on his touchdown dance though.

• Today's win was not cheap- Russell Okung left the game late in the 4th quarter with a pectoral injury of all things.  Pete Carroll said the injury "doesn't look good," and with only four games remaining, there is a very real chance that Okung could be on the IR tomorrow.  If that happens, that would mean 3/5 of our line hit IR this year.  In a move which looked stupid at the time and looks even worse in retrospect, the team released Tyler Polumbus a few weeks ago, and he's now a member of the Redskins.  Seattle has no real depth at left tackle, so it should be interesting to see how they handle this situation.

DVR Run Analysis - Washington @ Seattle; 27-Nov-2011

Here's my weekly DVR Run Analysis for the Redskins/Seahawks game...

* The good news is that the consistency was back in the running game. The bad news is that the defense, a weak passing game, and penalties let this game slip through our fingers.

* Overall, we got 121 yards on 29 carries for a 4.2 YPC average. Marshawn Lynch got 100+ yards for the third time in four weeks. Regarding consistency, we were never tackled for a loss and were held to no gain on a single running play. 18 of Lynch's 24 runs (75%) were for three or more yards. (14 were for four or more.)

* Q1 - The quarter was weak, but not due to the running game. 20 yards on three runs and a first down. 6.7 YPC.

[7:05] 1st and 10. Power run, splitting the D at the center. Center Max Unger gets the NT, releases to go upstream, and FB Mike Robinson cuts the NT down. Lynch hits a free ILB for a gain of five.
[6:35] 2nd and 5. Slash right (the line goes right while the TE, Anthony McCoy, pulls to split the left side.) TE Zach Miller and LT Russell Okung seal perfectly. Lynch hits the hole and makes a LB miss, getting ten yards and a 1st down.
[:39] 1st and 10. With 2 backs and 1 TEs, the D loads the box. Zone right. Excellent push by Unger, RG Paul McQuistan, and RT Breno Giacomini. Robinson leads Lynch to the RG but is too late to get the LB at the next level. Lynch gets five and could have had a few more had Robinson made that block, but there was just too much ground for Mike Rob to cover.

The DVR Run Analyst Joins 17 Power

Since 2007, I've been reviewing almost every Seahawks run play in slow motion on my DVR over at the Northwest Sports Talk Forum under the alias, CamasMan. (I just posted my analysis of the Rams Game there.) Brandon invited me to join this blog and I immediately accepted. Is there a better title than 17 Power for a blog analyzing the Seahawks' running game?

Here some background. I'm the height and weight of a wide receiver, have the hands of a linebacker, the speed of a nose tackle, the tactical savvy of a long snapper, and the toughness of a place kicker. So, in organized sports, I'm a breaststroker. I was never meant to play football.

I first became an obsessed fan back when Bill Walsh first became the 49er's head coach. My best friend's dad had been Walsh's roommate at San Jose State. So here we were, a bunch of young guys in LA, rooting for San Francisco. Hey, timing is everything. A few years later, my young family moved to Grass Valley in Northern California, and the ride continued. In '96, we moved up here to Camas, and watched more High School ball than the pros. I happened to catch Game 5 of Seattle's 2005 season, and quickly became hooked. Again, timing is everything. Screw the '9ers!

Winning by Reputation vs. Just Beating Bad Gameplans

It's being said that the Seahawks' defense is now shutting down teams by mere reputation.

In the last two weeks, Seattle has beaten two teams - Baltimore and St. Louis - who abandoned the run very early on after a token showing, then turned around and placed the game on the shoulders of their QB. Word is that their offensive coordinators, aware of Seattle's ability against the run, were planning a pass-heavy attack for that reason even before the game began. If opponents are smart enough to throw out entire facets of the offense before the game even begins, then hey, we must be pretty good.

There's a massive assumption in there: that relying on the passing game made sense for those teams. It's a faulty assumption. It actually made even less sense than trying to run against the brick wall of Seattle's defensive line. If you're going to kill the run, not only do you have to be craftier about it then giving Ray Rice only five carries, but you had better have a quarterback who can carry the team. Otherwise, the results write themselves.