Lockout Hangover: Defensive Line

Seattle's 2011 defensive line is impossible to predict. It could be a force to be reckoned with. There's also the potential for it to be the biggest surprise disappointment on the team.

The common perception is that Seattle's defensive line was top-caliber for the first six weeks of 2010. The context for that, which too many are ignoring, is that during that span Seattle faced some of the feeblest offenses in the league and crumbled against Kyle Orton. The collapse of our defense coincides with the injuries of most of the starting line (Red Bryant, Colin Cole, and Brandon Mebane, in order of perceived importance but not necessarily actual importance), so many people understandably blame that. But it also coincides with the point at which Seattle hit the respectable part of its schedule (i.e. the last 10 games). That rise in respectability was pretty steep.

So it's hard to say how good Seattle's D-line truly was last year. The evidence is circumstantial and could swing either way. The Denver game serves as a disturbing hint that the line may have been tremendously overrated; the starters were all on the field and provided zero pass disruption. Stopping a bottom-five rushing attack isn't that impressive. At no time anywhere in the season did the defense stop a strong passing attack or even come close, starters healthy or not.

The Draft and Character Risks

One last thought as the 2011 NFL Draft (finally) commences today...

I'm not sold on Pete Carroll. I don't know whether he has what it takes to compete at the league level yet. In his first year as Seahawks head coach, he's shown good and bad. He's certainly demonstrated that he can inspire and motivate even a poor team, get them believing in themselves. He can attract a quality coaching staff. He's not shy in free agency and can scrounge up decent talent out of almost anywhere. He's installed a defensive scheme that has documented weaknesses and prioritizes shutting down the run, which honestly shouldn't be a huge priority. He's shown an inflexibility on scheme that needlessly deprived Seattle of a couple talented players. He's betrayed a possible over-valuing of tools, like height.

Something we have yet to see is how he handles character risks with his high picks.

A number of late-first-round prospects commonly mocked to Seattle possess what we call "character concerns". This would include QB Ryan Mallett, CB Jimmy Smith, DT Marvin Austin, and DT Nick Fairley if he falls far enough. LB Justin Houston and DT Christian Ballard can be added to that list now that we know he failed a Combine drug test.

Character concerns can include anything from legal issues (drugs, alcohol, domestic problems) to on-field red flags (laziness, immaturity, cockiness, disrespect for authority). They can also range anywhere from confirmed and undeniable, to rumored and dismissible.

This stuff has to be taken into account when you evaluate a prospect. You don't draft a crucial player who runs the risk of leaving effort on the sidelines or getting thrown in jail for that crucial division game. This is why a player's draft stock takes a hit if this stuff comes out - draftniks know that teams will dismiss him more easily.

What about Carroll?

The Overrated Red Bryant...Position?

"Say that to my face, skinny white boy."

He was the mini-Hutchinson of 2010, the one who got away. Most eulogies of Seattle's 2010 season mark the injury loss of DE Red Bryant as the point of collapse for Seattle's run defense, which ranked a surprising #2 by Week 7. It was a frustrating end to one of the offseason's most exciting stories, as training camp reports gushed about Bryant's experimental shift from tackle to end and the immediate improvement that followed.

Bryant, a fourth-round afterthought before the experiment, left such an indelible impression in his six games healthy that the run-stopping RDE in Carroll's scheme is now popularly named after him. With Red's future clouded by injury, the "Red Bryant position" is now seen as one of the team's foremost needs, the key to unlocking smashmouth defensive play. This has a lot of mock drafts, including this week's version from Rob Staton, handing Seattle a similar hulking-but-quick hybrid like Phil Taylor or Muhammad Wilkerson, who is set to visit with the Seahawks.

Here's the thing: the numbers don't support the idea that Seattle's early-season defense was all that amazing in the first place. In fact, it looks downright overrated upon close examination. And an overrated defense calls into question the value of, perhaps not Red Bryant himself, but the position he plays in Carroll's scheme.

I investigate this because it affects Seattle's draft board: where does a hulking-but-quick 5-tech like Taylor or Wilkerson really belong in the hierarchy of the Seahawks' needs?

This is a long one.