Thursday Post-Draft Links

Sorry for the hole in content. It's been a busy week with many exciting things going on. Here are some links while I finish a piece on Seattle's late-round picks.



Mike Sando passes on Seattle GM John Schneider's justifications for the draft. Tons of good info here. I appreciate how accountable Schneider makes himself to the fans - most of his "we don't care what others think" comments feel directed at national draftniks, not fans.

Also from Sando: a fair and balanced view on whether Matt Hasselbeck has a future with the Seahawks.

Rob Staton's source continues to hit it out of the park with intriguing gossip. Amongst the tidbits in his latest leak: Blaine Gabbert was actually the top-rated QB on Seattle's board, which I find encouraging. (Jake Locker was #6, which I find equally encouraging.) CB Jimmy Smith may have been a target at #25 after all, and Seattle is still in the thick of the free-agent QB hunt, with Charlie Whitehurst as a very real starter option.

Rob also addresses those who rationalize away Seattle's failure to draft a QB by pointing to next year's crop. In a nutshell: that's what they say every year. The optimistic future always looks more appealing than the closely-examined, better-informed present. That's a pretty good definition for the word "mirage".

FOXSports.com's Peter Schrager forecasts Seattle to draft #1 and select Andrew Luck in 2012. This won't happen. Too many things have to go just right (or wrong) for Seattle to select #1. It's like out-competing 31 other teams in the suck department. With master motivator Pete Carroll as coach, Seattle will win too many games against Arizona to nab Luck. And I don't care how long Carroll has supposedly been given to build his vision - if the Seahawks collapse disastrously enough to go #1 next year, his job will be in danger.

The OC Register examines new Seattle linebacker Malcolm Smith and the gastrointestinal disorder that he suffers from. It's a sobering thing. If Smith can stay on top of his condition, he has the tools to become an impressive value pick.

Nick Andron over at Fieldgulls reminds us that Seattle's new offensive line is not likely to bloom right away. List of obstacles to said blooming: inexperience, question marks at center and left guard, inexperience, Russell Okung's fragility, two rookies, inexperience, the lockout canceling OTA's and minicamps, and by the way, since we all seem to keep forgetting this...

ROBERT GALLERY IS NOT A SEAHAWK YET, AND MAY NEVER BE.

The Mallett Ultimatum, Part 1

Yep. I'm driving this bandwagon.

Just to be clear, I don't believe in grabbing any old first-round QB just because he's first-round. Plenty of teams have busted with that mentality. I also don't believe that he's an instant fix to every problem on a football team, nor that other picks can't help the situation. And I don't believe in throwing a rookie QB to the wolves on a team that can't afford him one iota of protection.

So when I say that I consider Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett the most likely-to-succeed prospect in this draft, it's for good reason. I've analyzed the guy, compared him to the other options, and emerged convinced that selecting this guy will bring bigger returns than any other. Sure, my judgment is fallible, but at some point you have to pick a belief and stick to it. I believe that Mallett has what it takes to win in the pros, and that he has it right now. The other guys do not, and it's questionable whether they ever will.

So here's my take on why Seattle should rate this guy very highly on its draft board. In the interest of sparing my generous readers from having to read essays, I've broken it down into three parts. Enjoy part one, in which I take a look mostly at Mallett himself.

(You might also appreciate the more technical scouting report of Kip Earlywine over at Seahawks Draft Blog.)

Forecasting an Early Run on Draft Quarterbacks

I wanted Ndamukong Suh so badly last year. I kept toting the idea of trading our #6 and #14 picks to Detroit to move up to #2 for him. It seemed to make so much sense; wouldn't the Lions benefit more from two franchise players instead of just one?

My peers, meanwhile, manufactured cheaper scenarios that envisioned Suh or Gerald McCoy falling to #6 as Detroit took a left tackle instead. Incumbent Jeff Backus didn't seem to be cutting it, and the Lions had signed Corey Williams to bolster the D-line; perhaps they were patching the defense with free agency and targeting a left tackle with the pick! Once Suh fell past Detroit, the other teams' needs would make at least McCoy available to Seattle. It made so much sense.

This is the very definition of wishful thinking. Football movements have many interpretations; the Williams move was a support for Suh, not an alternative. You can create a scenario that's possible, but is it realistic and reasonable? Any theory that requires a long procession of things to go wrong for other teams to benefit us should automatically be re-examined. In the end, Suh and McCoy went at #2 and #3 respectively, leaving us to ask ourselves, "Why did we ever think that Detroit and Tampa Bay would pass those guys up?"

It's wishful thinking to assume that any of the top four quarterbacks - Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton, Jake Locker, or Ryan Mallett - will be available at #25. Sure, it could happen. Unlike most draft years, not even the #1 pick is locked in, and there are literally millions of possible draft simulations to wade through, including some that drop a top QB to the Seahawks. The problem is, each such scenario involves a number of very QB-hungry teams passing up a potential franchise QB, in favor of either an in-house solution that tanked in 2010 or an unremarkable/aging/unproven free agent (some of whom may not even be open to trade).

NFL Network: Seattle in first-round QB hunt

NFL Network's Albert Breer comments on Seattle's quarterback intentions: (emphasis mine)

   With Charlie Whitehurst difficult to count on as a "quarterback of the future," and Matt Hasselbeck's contract up, Seattle has planned for months to seriously consider pulling the trigger on a new signal-caller in the first round. ... There are likely three quarterbacks going in the top half of the first round: Missouri's Blaine Gabbert, Auburn's Cam Newton and Washington's Jake Locker. Now, to get any of those three would require a serious move up and a heavy cost to Seattle, and that means there would have to be serious conviction on the part of the staff. Maybe Carroll has that with the hometown kid Locker...But otherwise, all this might mean the team would be left with the option of Ryan Mallett at the bottom of the first round, and the Seahawks already are well aware of the kind of risk he presents from a character perspective.

   One way for the Seahawks to address their quarterbacking question could be to make another run at Kevin Kolb. ... Remember, the Browns and Seahawks made inquiries last offseason about Kolb but were rebuffed as it became clear the Eagles preference was to deal Donovan McNabb. Cleveland, of course, has insight because of GM Tom Heckert's Philadelphia roots, while Seattle was another West Coast offense team that figured Kolb's transition could be a smooth one.

My take: This strikes me as nothing more than makes-sense speculation. A few disagreements I have:

• Kevin Kolb is indeed a hot commodity - in the sense that a hot stove top can scorch your hand. He's an untested QB and his very limited action in 2010 hasn't changed that. Something else that hasn't changed is his price tag of two first-rounders - a price Seattle walked away from last year when they actually had those picks available. Why would they go back to the well now?

• I have a creeping hunch that a surprising run on quarterbacks will occur early in the first round. As in all four top prospects (Gabbert, Newton, Locker, Mallett) gone in the top half of the draft, perhaps sooner. The draft is top-heavy with QB-hungry teams and has seen a number of free-agent QB experiments sputter and die this year (e.g. Donovan McNabb, Jake Delhomme, Jason Campbell, Brett Favre, Troy Smith, Kyle Orton, Derek Anderson, Trent Edwards), possibly making the free agent route a little unseemly. Struggling teams need new franchise faces to rejuvenate the fans. Rookie QB's are always a hot commodity. Plenty of GM's and coaches think they have what it takes to turn first-round projects into stars. Combine these factors, and you have the makings of an early run.

• If Mallett falls to #25, is that really such a hard choice for Seattle? Footwork schmootwork...the only real reason Mallett's stock is falling is those un-confirmable character flags. The guy knows quite well what he has to show in the next few months to maximize his stock. Give the kid a chance. His on-the-field abilities are starting to make him look like the most NFL ready signal-caller in this draft, other than the out-of-reach Gabbert.

Senior Bowl Quarterback Notes

Christian Ponder: NFL brain. Training bra arm. The deep ball he threw to Hankerson was caught, yes, but still exposed his arm as weak. His deep outs were equally weak. There is no questioning his intelligence, but the 18 yard deep out is an NFL staple, and he simply doesn't have it in his bag. His brains make him intriguing, but his arm says backup.

Jake Locker is still an athlete playing quarterback. He has moments, like his rollout left, where he squares his hips and makes a PERFECT pass, and you know only a few NFL quarterbacks can do that. But his seam routes on the hash are WR death throws. High and wide exposes a lot of ribs. I thought Mayock did a great job of exposing his baseball stride in the pocket. More hips, less legs, Jake. Can that be taught? Absolutely. The fumbling issue is a concern, part of his unsettled pocket presence could be due to poor ball protection. His time in Washington certainly didn't teach him that the pocket is a place to feel secure. I still think he goes in the top ten.

Greg McElroy, I just don't know about. He looks OK at everything, and great at nothing. His arm is not much better than Ponder's, though.

Andy Dalton didn't show much. Practice showed a better arm than Ponder and McElroy; his smarts are beyond question. After he got just absolutely SMOKED on what should have been an offsides penalty at minimum, I don't think it would be fair to evaluate what you saw anyway. And therein lies the rub with Dalton. Can he thicken up a bit so he can take an NFL pounding for 16 (or 18) games?

Colin Kaepernick. Maybe even more than Locker, he is an athlete playing at quarterback. The arm motion can only be described as Tebow lite. He does telegraph throws with his windup. He doesn't have Locker's deep stride issue in the pocket, however. I question his ability to make a 2nd or 3rd read, and his instinct to tuck and run is strong. He LIKES being a running quarterback.

His sideline interview during the game was enlightening. Media savvy players know that the Senior Bowl is an interview for a job, but don't emphasize that aspect, rather talking about "team". Kaepernick made no bones about measuring himself against the other 5 quarterbacks on the field that he thought were getting talked about more than him. Not sure how I feel about that.

Has straight line speed. He will wow them at the combine, he might even make Locker and Newton look slow. He will be selected later than Newton, but I'm not so sure Newton isn't the bigger project. Both are projects, however.

Ricky Stanzi has tools that fit the NFL, but almost appears afraid to make a mistake. He reeks of checkdown Charlie. Good pocket presence, makes two reads, throws all the passes with adequate zip, but somehow always leaves you wanting more. I think he reads short to deep, not deep to short. He looks like a clipboard will fit his hands for quite a few years into the future.

Caveat on these notes: North quarterbacks suffered from a poor pocket all day. South quarterbacks enjoyed a pristine pocket on most plays. Which is why using stats to break down this game is damn near useless.