Wednesday, April 20, 2011

UPDATED: Seahawks Draft Rumors, April 20-21

If you're reading me, you're probably already following Seahawks Draft Blog's Rob Staton on Twitter and have seen what I'm about to pass on. He's been dropped a few nuggets, supposedly from the inside organization, on how Seattle is looking at the upcoming draft. Rob and I both know this source to be reliable, having conveyed accurate info on the Seahawks' actions in last year's draft.

Here's what we've been told:

(UPDATED for new info on Thursday night)



* Ryan Mallett is not on Seattle's radar, but only due to his lack of mobility and not his character concerns.

* Mike Pouncey is a priority target, but is expected to be gone by #25.

* Stephen Paea is very popular in the Seahawks' war room but is unlikely to be drafted for unspecified reasons.

* Same with Mark Ingram, Adrian Clayborn, Marcus Cannon, Phil Taylor, and Marvin Austin.

* Seattle does indeed want to trade down, preferably into the first few picks of the second, in order to recoup a middle-round pick, preferably a third-rounder (which sounds about right for such a trade). Trading up probably won't happen.

The glut of high second-round teams looking for a QB may well provide Seattle such a trade partner, but could also easily take away...

* ...Colin Kaepernick, the one QB the front office unanimously approves of. HOWEVER, it has been said that Kaepernick is still second-fiddle to the top QB on Seattle's draft board. That QB is unknown. Dalton is #3.

* Seattle rates Jimmy Smith higher than Prince Amukamara.

* Mid-rounders to watch: Curtis Marsh (CB, Utah State), DeMarcus Van Dyke (CB, Miami), Lee Ziemba (OL, Auburn), Jeff Tarpinian (LB, Iowa).


This is interesting info. The initial rumor on Paea didn't seem to fit with Seattle's personnel needs: Stephen Paea is almost exclusively a 1-tech prospect and kind of a schematic mismatch for Seattle, especially one-dimensional for a first-rounder. A few disagree, such as Mocking the Draft, who see a 3-tech in Paea. In that case, he becomes more interesting.

Honestly, if this news is true, it's kind of discouraging barring the true emergence of Colin Kaepernick. Unlike the brief day in the first-round sun that Andy Dalton and Christian Ponder enjoyed, and which was promptly shot down by anyone with access to tape, the first-round buzz surrounding Colin Kaepernick isn't going away. He's not as big as Josh Freeman, nor as accurate with the deep ball as Mallett, nor does he have a lot of experience in a pro-style offense or good college competition. He may be one of those "X-factor" guys.

While I personally see Rob's source as reliable, that doesn't mean that he's got the right info this time. I can easily imagine a sports organization intentionally leaking good info to a guy, purely for the purposes of creating a credible source should the team ever need to sell a really big lie somewhere down the road. If ever there's a need for Seattle to lie convincingly, it'd be standing on the cusp of the hunt for the next franchise quarterback.

Or perhaps he's right. This guy never did reveal his sources within the organization, nor would he be smart to do so. I want to stay clear of any biases  or wishful thinking here. Honesty requires me to admit that neither Kaepernick nor Paea would be very exciting picks to me, not even for an extra third-rounder.

If Seattle does want to trade down, you have New England and Buffalo probably itching to jump ahead of each other (and the Jets at #28). New England tends to trade down more often than up, but they're not as jealous of their third-rounders as they are their Top 64 picks. I agree with Scott Williams, who sees Buffalo as the most likely trade partner.


As far as who Seattle's top QB is, a simple process of elimination suggests Mallett or Locker. I see no reason to think that it won't be either one. The real question is, if Kaepernick or Dalton are left as Seattle's top choices, do they content themselves with such a pick at #25 or try to trade down first?


Thank God we only have a week left to wait.

34 comments:

  1. I like the Kaper. I know how you feel about Mallett, but if you are correct, it won't be a mystery to the 24 teams ahead of us. And I think Buffalo would trade up if they skip on Miller at the three spot. they need a big 3-4 LB, and there are a bunch of 3-4 teams, including the Jets and Pats, between our 25 and their natural 2nd rounder.

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  2. What if a desperate team wanted to give next years 1st ad this years 3rd? Krazy but the broncos did a krazy trade a few years ago similar I think? I could be wrong tho? But to a team that wants a guy that bad and is available still they could get desperate? Then 2 1st rounders next year 2 get luck or barkley if he comes out!!

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  3. That kind of trade is pretty rare, Matthew. We probably won't see it again. Probably something more sane like this year's first and early fourth. Then we could package those to New England for their extra third.

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  4. Yeah wishfull thinking!! Well if mallett is there then I say go for it! If not and someone wants 2 trade and we pick up xtra pickss I wouldn't be mad @ all! I don't believe any other quarterback that could be available @ 25 is a franchise guy with the potential mallett has with his arm! I could care less about mobility if the guy has already got it out his hand before the defense gets 2 him!

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  5. I really don't like anything about this info! Kaepernick in the first??? Paea in the second??? I'm REALLY hoping this is misinformation because I hate every word of it. If its true and the Hawks draft this way I'll be officially "skeptical" of the Carroll/Schneider regime.

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  6. I always thought Kaepernick was a clone of Whitehurst, so its not a surprise that they've been checking him out considering how they liked Charlie so much. But I hope he's better cause in this scenario he gonna cost more... I do think he's interesting but not in the first, especially followed up by Paea in the second! This news combo is worse than a week or two ago when people were saying Dalton at 25.

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  7. It could all be a smokescreen to throw teams off! No way kaep goes in the 1st!! Pouncey would be a great pick if they did that though!! Doubt he gets 2 us but if so the hawks should run to the podium! Well that's if mallett isn't available still! Chances of both @ 25 very rare I would think!! What happened to the jimmy smith talk? That should be 3rd on there wishlist I think

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  8. Picture this in 2 years! Earl thomas, kam chancellor, walter thrmond, and jimmy smith! To me that's a solid secondary for years to come! Scary @ that 2 playmakers and 2 really solid hitters and coverage guys!! Idk I like the sounds of that myself!

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  9. When was the last time a mobile quarterback succeeded in the NFL? It's been quite a while. If Carroll and Schneider really do draft a guy like Kaepernick, it reflects a fundamental misunderstanding about the modern game that is nigh uncorrectable. (This isn't saying Kaepernick might not develop into a competent NFL QB, but barring a Steve Young like development, runners are never elite passers) And it means we will likely never win the Super Bowl with Carroll as a coach.

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  10. It's sort of funny; for a while i was really high on Kaepernick, i even jumped on the hipe bandwagon that justified taking him at 25. But now, when i hear they are really considering this, i cringe. I guess it's a case of not wanting to put my money where my mouth is. Paea i am fine with... even in the first. I view him as a first round tallent capable of upgrading ANY of three of our spots on the DL.

    As for as Kaep goes, there is just no way Pete and John are going to put their money on the line for a QB with a huge variance in possible outcomes. He could be a Probowler... or out of the league in 2 years.

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  11. To the earlier comment about running QB's not translating to the current game...I'm not comparing Kaep to Aaron Rodgers, but Rodgers is one current QB that thrives running the ball...

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  12. Jake Locker is the only running QB that deserves a 1st round grade that we have a shot @! That would be a reach to take Kaepernick in the 1st i almost think it would be in the 2nd round too! I think if mallett isn't here we trade down, or take best linemen available on both sides of the ball or jimmy smith!!

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  13. Add Mike Vick, Josh Freeman, Donovan McNabb, and Jake Plummer to that list. Vince Young could probably qualify as well. He's crazy but he had no trouble winning games.

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  14. Add Ben Roethlisberger, too.

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  15. Rodgers and Freeman are not running quarterbacks. Dalton, who has some pocket mobility (86 attempts, 435 yards, 5.1 ypc, 6 td in 2010), compares to these quarterbacks.

    Michael Vick and Donovan McNabb are not, not have ever been, successful in the NFL, as defined by winning the super bowl. Kaepernick, who rushed for 1000 yards, is a runner, not a mobile QB, and is more like Vick or McNabb.

    Plummer is the quirky, interesting middle ground. Jake Locker's upside is Jake Plummer. His downside is Alkiki Smith.

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  16. Aw, thats where our opinions differ on Kaep. I don't see him as merely a running QB. To me he's a passer, albeit a raw one, that happens to have some wheels. I'm not going to treat 1000+ rushing yards as a negative just because he's a QB.

    And not classifying McNabb and Vick as success's just because they haven't won a superbowl is, frankly, dumb. By that criteria Warren Moon and Dan Marino are failures, whilst Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer are successful QB's.

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  17. Super Bowl wins are a terrible way to judge a QB.

    But I do agree that there's a difference between a running QB and a QB who can run when he needs to. For all the slobber over Roethlisberger, Rodgers, and Freeman, they're still winning with their arms and not their legs, just like Brady, Manning, Brees, and Rivers.

    Thus, if Kaepernick is a raw passer, that's reason to grade him as 3rd-tier QB material. It's not a positive.

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  18. Interesting that Mallet is not on their radar. I wouldn't have called that myself.

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  19. Kaepernick has a weird throwing motion! And when he runs with the ball he looks careless! I would feel better about dalton the kaepernick myself! And I still think the hawks r trying 2 throw teams off with the mallett info!! No way they take kaepernick over mallett @ 25!

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  20. I don't mean to say that winning a super bowl equates to success for a quarterback, but rather that a certain type of quarterback is a requirement for winning the super bowl.

    It depends on the goal of the franchise. If the goal of the franchise is to 'contend' and 'win games' every year, Kap may turn into a viable guy. But a 1,000 yard rushing season in college should be an automatic disqualification to any team looking to win super bowls.

    It doesn't mean he can't do it, it's just playing the numbers. It's taking the high-percentage shot.

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  21. I can think of a certain New England quarterback who has won three Super Bowls without possessing an ounce of mobility.

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  22. "But a 1,000 yard rushing season in college should be an automatic disqualification to any team looking to win super bowls."

    What I meant by that was, only non-mobile quarterbacks (eg, Brady) win super bowls in the current era.

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  23. Roethlisberger is very mobile and has two rings. Steve Young was a great rusher in college, rushing for over 600+ yards in two of his three seasons at Brigham Young. Elway was also a great rusher.

    Brady doesn't win games because he's not mobile, he wins games because he's a great passer. Give him a 4.4 forty time and he's not suddenly going to become a terrible QB.

    I mean, past mobile QB's didn't fail because they were mobile, they failed because they couldn't pass. Josh Freeman and Ben Roethlisberger easily mobile enough to get 1000+ rushing yards if put in an offense like Nevada's. Does that mean they'd have failed in the NFL? No, because they are great passers.

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  24. I think next years class if barkley comes out will have 2 pure pocket passers with big time potential as nfl quarterbacks! Now I know it may not be smart 2 wait but I think a lot less damging then taking a shot on a project that doesn't ever pan out! We have whitehurst I think he brings what kaepernick can bring! Resign matt and wait I think if mallett or locker isn't available! And imo I don't c them high on both mallett and locker 2 different qbs! That would say they have no clue what kinda qb they want if u ask me! Its either or and I hope its the pocket passer they want myself!!

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  25. Your assuming that being mobile automatically means that guy is a poor passer which just isn't the case. Freeman, Steve Young, Elway, Roethlisberger, and Rodgers have proven this.

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  26. Look @ the list you just named! How could you even put freeman in there! All those r hof or future hof in my eyes! Freeman is good yes but no way is he comparable or even in the same convo as the others yet! I would put vivk before freeman @ least he went to an nfc championship game!!

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  27. I think the whole meaning behind it is a run 1st qb! Mobility is a plus and yes all those r mobile but I think they were pass 1st before run!

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  28. I don't remember saying that every running QB is a bad passer.

    I would say, however, that running QB's tend to rely on their scrambling skills often enough in college to where there's no urgency for them to refine their passing skills. Not true of all, but some.

    If your QB is a good runner, that doesn't disqualify him, but it does if he's a bad passer. That's what may be true of Kaepernick.

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  29. I do pretty much think that being a good runner (distinguishable from being mobile) disqualifies a QB from being a good passer.

    Steve Young is the exception to the rule, and he was a failure for most of his early career. Vick has the potential to be a second exception. Roethlisberger isn't mobile, he's 6'7".

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  30. Roethlisberger is mobile, moreso than your average QB.

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  31. Its important to remember that Seattle may not pick any of these players, but the information could still be accurate. That's because unlike last year where talent was virtually slotted at each pick, the Seahawks pick 25th and predicting BPA who will reach them is nearly impossible.

    So with that out of the way, I believe this source is accurate and not a smokescreen.

    #1: Our FO hasn't used smokescreens much to this point.

    #2: The information is leaked and he's not naming their source, so unless Rob's source is secretly Carroll or Schneider himself, its probably not intentional. And this same source DID NOT mislead us last year.

    #3: Everything the source says makes complete sense. Locker and Kaepernick are the perfect "type" of QB for what Pete Carroll wants in his offense. Mallett is extremely talented, but he doesn't fit, so he's not on their board, simple as that. Carroll raved about Mebane last year, but the team is minimalist in their efforts to retain him. As I've said on this very site, its due to an unfortunately scheme fit. Paea is Mebane 2.0, outstanding player who doesn't fit and that's basically what the source said, they really like him but won't draft him (presumably because of scheme).

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  32. Scheme fit seems to be rearing it's head again. I pretty much have learned a life lesson that what people do means more than what they say.

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  33. They better say no to Dalton. Can't emphasize enough how horrible of a pick that would be. Every "football" or "non-media" guy that I've read/listened to doesn't think much of Dalton. All of a sudden he's a "top" guy.

    I for one want no part of a physically limited QB, who I don't think teammates would buy into. Call me crazy, but I don't see Mike Williams or a Marshawn Lynch having much, if any respect for a guy like Dalton. Might seem shallow, but QBs need some sort of defining factor that others can buy into. Don't see anything in Dalton that sticks out. Nobody cares about his W-L record at TCU besides Peter King and Mike Salk.

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