The smartass guide to the LuckStakes, sans Seattle. Cry or rejoice as you see fit.

Who really has a shot at drafting Andrew Luck? Who's plummeting in free-fall towards the bottom of the barrel, and who's losing out by inexplicably winning? Here's the leading contenders.


1. Miami Dolphins. They opted not to fire Sparano during the lockout, why mess with a winning (at losing) formula? If Sparano's tenure was any more lame duck, the team's uniform accent color would be a l'orange. There has been talk among some pundits that now is the time to go get Orton, but with 11/16ths of his 9 million dollar salary still due, I find it hard to believe they would. Besides, the owner has the option of selling tickets one of two ways: build a winning team and tradition, or draft Andrew Luck. He is pushing the EASY button in Miami this year.

2. Indianpolis Colts. The latest news is that Peyton is less than 50/50 on playing this season. Expect those odds to dwindle as 16 losses draws closer. Those odds nearly got a big boost when Indy somehow found a way to lead the hapless Chiefs in an actual NFL game played in front of fans and everything, but some good mid-game adjustments by the Colts coaching staff made sure the Chiefs were able to come from behind and win a 2nd! NFL game.

3. St. Louis Rams. They are moving on up. The Jefferson's have nothing on this bunch, who are happy to report that they only have 5 home games left to gag. In related news, StubHub is reporting that St. Louis fans have bogged their servers with tickets for sale. While how much the Rams would want to draft Luck may be a matter of debate, the kings' ransom they would receive for trading that spot is not. Don't worry Seattle fans, the Rams will somehow get themselves to a couple of wins. Their goal is not Luck, but Los Angeles.

4. Denver Broncos. More proof that Elway has no idea what he is doing in Denver: Tebow Time. All he did was nearly beat San Diego. To the 3 or 4 Bronco fans who have not become Tebow acolytes, worry not. John Fox has promised that after the bye week they will have "training camp" style practices especially for Tim Tebow. Wasn't training camp a total disaster for Tebow? With a game at Miami the week after the upcoming bye, Fox and Elway are apparently hoping for a training camp-style ass-kicking in Miami.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are also competing for a spot in LA. The only team on my list who might trade the rights to the top spot to Seattle also might just reconsider that stance if Gabbert continues to poop the bed. Which kind of means Seattle has no chance.

6. Minnesota Vikings. Their chances took a severe blow when the Arizona Cardinals came to town, who after Seattle's win remain the western team most committed to losing 10 AM starts. I told them to IR Purple Jesus, but did they listen? Nope. Come on Vikings, would you rather have a dozen or so years of Luck, or 3 years of Christian Ponder? The Vikings will probably fall off the list, their defense is good enough to get them a handful of wins.

7. Arizona Cardinals. The more likely it becomes that Whisenhunt gets fired, the higher the Cards will move up this list. Kolb is looking less like a quarterback and more like an albatross every week. If every running back makes Patrick Peterson flinch the way that Adrian Peterson does, Kolb won't be able to throw enough touchdowns to keep this suddenly irrelevant team anywhere but near the top of the Luckstakes.

Philadelphia and Carolina sport records of 1-4, but I have a hard time seriously including them in the race for the number one pick right now. Seattle is out of it. Like I said last week, this Seattle Defense is only a couple of attitude ticks away from winning a few games by itself. They played against the Giants like their attitude was ticked, and good for them. They put the loud but vocal Suck for Luck minority to bed, and thank goodness. With 3 games left against the Rams and Cards, it is highly unlikely that Seattle even drafts in the top 5, let alone grabs the top spot.

Seahawks vs. Vikings Pushback: The QB's

Comparing Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst is like comparing circles of hell. You're hosed either way. Seattle's QB competition is not about finding a franchise QB, because barring some sudden development of skill within the next month, the current competition is not likely to magically create a franchise QB. It's about finding a game manager. Pete Carroll knows the limitations of this QB lineup and is merely seeking someone who can steward the Seahawks through 2011 without turning the ball over, keeping games salvageable by a few lucky plays.

(Hopefully, that policy is just a temporary thing while Seattle searches for their QBOTF, and not a long-range strategy.)

I'm not a fan of either QB. To be honest, I'd dismissed Charlie Whitehurst within a week of Seattle signing him. The optimism surrounding him felt strained and unrealistic. I felt no impetus to justify a brand-new front office or the third-rounder spent on Whitehurst, so I went with the simplest explanation: Whitehurst was a third-stringer on San Diego's roster for good reason, and Seattle had overpaid. I met Jackson with similar skepticism: despite Minnesota's treatment of him, it was always quite possible and far more reasonable that Minnesota simply knew what they had - a backup - and treated him accordingly.

Whitehurst is getting a lot of support from folks after his performance against Minnesota. He's getting the Dilfer calls while Jackson is dismissed largely over his stat line. I don't make excuses for QB's, but that's a piss-poor evaluation of Jackson. It's mind-boggling to me that professional news outlets make this kind of shallow judgment. Watch the damn game. Get a clue on how to spot and judge fundamentals of play. I'm not falling over myself to defend anyone, but I saw encouraging things from Jackson Saturday night and feel they need to be enumerated.

Seahawks vs. Vikings Pushback: Everyone Besides the QB's

I'm still working on my spiel about Seattle's quarterbacks against Minnesota. It involves matters of context (some of which I'll establish here) and fair methods of judgment, so start thinking about that if you want.


Offensive Game Plan

Seattle appeared to treat this game as a team workshop for the short pass. I don't know whether that was an answer to Minnesota's style (doubtful in preseason), lack of confidence in the QB or O-line, or simply part of the preseason plan. The game plan emphasized 3- and 5-step drops (almost exclusively) and a lot of tight end action to defeat pressure. A couple screens and a swing or two to mix it up. The execution was spotty but there. Lack of a run game didn't help.