Lockout Hangover: Linebackers

If you're using tackle numbers to evaluate linebackers, you should probably be aware that you're using a useless stat. If a linebacker has high tackle numbers, there might be all kinds of reasons for it, including some that have nothing to do with good performance. Such as:

1. He's a middle linebacker. Did you know that 50% of runs in the NFL are straight up the middle? MLB tackle numbers are higher than every other position by default, simply because that's where offenses run most.

2. His defense might be on the field all the time. Thus having to make more tackles. We already know this to be true of the Seahawks.

3. QB's might not be scared to throw at him. A good coverage LB (which a MLB should be in a Cover 2 like Seattle's) sticks to his zones and discourages passes to his man. Theoretically, a good MLB should have less tackles to make because he's forcing QB's to look elsewhere, hold onto the ball longer, and hopefully get sacked. Good defense shows up in QB pressure.

4. The rest of your team might suck at tackling. Thus forcing him to clean up their messes.


Starters

Scott's Opinion of the Draft

Pick 25, James Carpenter. I was out with my wife Thursday night, and I didn't get back until just after the 27th pick was being announced. I had the draft on DVR, but the prospect of 3 plus hours just to get to Seattle's pick did not appeal, so I got online and scanned the list...

All my wife heard was a loud "WHO?". I knew this team needed a RT, but assumed it was 4th round stuff, you know, like when we picked Locklear. I erroneously assumed that Petey liked the ZBS principles because it makes getting decent linemen easier in the mid rounds. Right tackle? But it is true, Locklear is gone and Andrews is terrible. I mean, if Andrews can't play well in the phone booth, how is he going to be any good out at the tackle spot?

So I read up, watched some highlights, and then watched every scrap of Ingram film I could. And I get it. I understand passing on the remaining quarterbacks and Jimmy Smith at 25. Carpenter looks solid, can play 4 spots, and considering Okung's ankles are as yet an unknown quantity, this is solid.

Straight Shots on Seattle's Draft, Part 2

Part 1 here.

Draft analysts continue to throw Seattle's draft under the bus as basically one big reach. I'm not exactly amongst them. I have my criticisms, but they're restrained. James Carpenter was a reach as a right tackle, but not as a football player. (You should check out Kip Earlywine's scouting report of the guy, and also Kyle Rota's on this very blog. He looks quite promising.) Kris Durham, a "Who?" pick for most Seattle fans, turned out to be another late riser coveted by other quality teams. The 2011 draft was in many ways a clinic on NFL scouting, and how teams dig up talent that goes unnoticed by most experts.

Seattle's biggest prize from the 2011 draft is a revamped offensive line. With the delayed OTA's and minicamps threatening to delay its development (a slow-burn goal to begin with), this draft will be a delayed-gratification draft for certain. That has to be acknowledged. But all the signs point to Pete Carroll and John Schneider planning to have more than two starter picks available to revamp the lines.

And when that failed to happen, the draft appeared to wobble awkwardly. Finally pulling off a trade at #57, Schneider procured a fourth-rounder (#107) with doubtful starting potential and then took themselves out of the running for some badly needed DT prospects by selecting an average guard at #75. They felt a DT would still be waiting for them at #99.

Some consider that move a "fairly safe risk", but I balk at expecting starting defensive tackles to fall through most of the third round. This is the downside of getting cute in the draft. Deep positions in a draft don't stay deep, they get run on. Sure, a DT might have been there, but there were a number of such simple strategies Seattle could have tried to boost their chances of getting one. To me, they just didn't try that hard. That could say a number of things.

Seahawks' Complete 2011 Draft Class

Ladies and gentlemen, your newest Seattle Seahawks.

Seahawks 2011 Draft
Rd	Pick	Player	Pos	School	Ht	Wt	#*
1	25	James Carpenter	RT	Alabama	6'4"	321	67
3	75	John Moffit	RG	Wisconsin	6'4"	314	62
4	99	K.J. Wright	OLB	Mississippi State	6'3"	245	50
4	107	Kris Durham	WR	Georgia	6'5"	216	84
5	154	Richard Sherman	CB	Stanford	6'3"	195	42
5	156	Mark Legree	FS	Appalachian State	6'0"	210	25
6	173	Byron Maxwell	CB	Clemson	6'0"	202	41
7	205	Lazarius Levingston	DE	LSU	6'4"	292	96
7	242	Malcolm Smith	OLB	USC	6'1"	225	53

* - Thought I would guess everyone's jersey numbers. Bold indicates a confirmed jersey number per Seahawks.com; the rest are my own wild guesses, pending comeuppance.