Monday, April 18, 2011

MockThree Draft Underway

Rob Staton of Seahawks Draft Blog, Danny Kelly of Fieldgulls, and myself are participating in a mock Twitter draft. You can follow along by searching for the #MockThree channel on Twitter, or follow me on Twitter for periodic updates.

Amongst the biggest early surprises (Newton still available at #8?) is San Diego trading up to #2 for LB Von Miller - giving up the #18, #50, and #89 (the Whitehurst trade pick, BTW) to do so.

I'm not sure which team got rooked worse in that deal. San Diego ate an entire starting draft to lock themselves into a #2 contract for a linebacker. Denver gave up a potentially franchise-altering prospect for three picks that are theoretically unlikely to match the on-the-field impact of a #2 pick. They also lost got shortchanged by approximately the point value of a late first-rounder, no matter which chart you use. In a way, both teams lost on this one, in my humble opinion.

Everyone is trying to trade down and stockpile picks, but there is such a thing as valuing picks over players. The whole point of the draft value points system, the whole point of a #2 pick being equal in points to two lower first-rounders, is that the #2 pick is supposed to impact his team as much as those two lower players combined. Players aren't rated top five for no reason, and the chart doesn't exist for no reason. That's why QB and defensive linemen usually go quickly in real drafts, and why linebackers don't; the former play at more significant football positions than linebackers.

San Diego and Denver's picks are obviously theirs to do with as they like, but when I mentioned how bad a deal I thought it was, their GM's threw out the names of a handful of top five picks notorious for how badly they busted. Fair enough. But we all tend to worry over the horror stories, because in a way busts get more attention than successes. Top 5 picks may have their bust rate, but they also have a much higher ceiling. You could, I suppose, interpret Denver's move as playing it safe. But still, why would they gift such a priceless pick to a division rival?

San Diego had a nice haul of picks to spare, sure, but why wouldn't they be served by just using all those picks? Hell of a draft. Saying that two second-rounders are worth more than a first implies that all picks are equal in value, which they aren't. Players and trades are unpredictable.

I'm rapidly coming to the belief that the best draft position for a team is not higher or lower, but exactly where they already are. Plenty of championship teams take what they're given and just...pick good football players.

Oh well. Just my useless thoughts. Stay tuned.


  1. Tried following the feed, but gave up after scrolling back a couple hundred tweets. Did you guys trade #25 to Miami? Thought you guys would hold tight at 25 and take BPA.

  2. Yeah, we traded up with Miami. We were tempted to stay put, but felt we needed a QB of the future and didn't want to risk other teams trading up to get him.

  3. Who did you get? Mallett? Hope the Seahawks aren't going to pass him due to mobility. Especially if they are going to do as Duncan's Dad suggests and go trade for Palmer.

    I think they have to pick the guy but that is just the fanboy's perspective.