The Red Bryant Illusion And Why I'm So Hard On Our Defense

It's an exciting time for the Seahawks defense. It's coming into its own. Young future cornerstones like Brandon Mebane, Earl Thomas, and Kam Chancellor are flying around and delivering huge, shuddering hits. Wily veterans like Marcus Trufant, Leroy Hill, Chris Clemons and Raheem Brock are enjoying a high-impact resurgence. And other hopefuls like Walter Thurmond and KJ Wright are lurking around hinting promise. The speed is there, the physicality is there, and we're finally starting to see some of the instincts and discipline we've been lacking. There's no denying the talent on tape.

There's one guy on this defense who doesn't quite seem to fit into any of those categories, though. At first glance, the stats seem to support a top-notch performance from any 'Hawks lineup containing DE Red Bryant. As Hawk Blogger recently pointed out, opponents are converting only 32% of their third downs in the Bryant defense's nine games, 29% so far this season - lofty numbers indeed, worthy of top 5 in the NFL.

My response, as the token wet blanket of the Seahawks blogging network, is that you have to put this into context. I've written before about how the Bryant defense faced mostly mediocre-to-terrible rushing teams in 2010 and completely folded against the only two strong passing games it's faced (Denver and Pittsburgh) even when they could stop the run.

Which suggests two possibilities: that the success of the run-focused Bryant D is either irrelevant in the grand scheme of things, or that it's still relatively untested against better opponents - the real yardstick of NFL success. Maybe some of both.

Who Do We Blame for Aaron Curry?

LB Aaron Curry is in the midst of a slow-burn demotion. In a fall from grace that actually evokes my sympathy, Curry is now taking reps with the Seahawks' scout team as fourth-round pick KJ Wright assumes his starting position. Curry has taken a humble attitude in front of the reporters, and despite some angsty Twitter comments that people are reading way too far into, he seems to be taking it in stride.

Dave Boling, in an attempt to put the selection of Curry in perspective, tries to shift the responsibility for the Curry pick away from Curry. Indeed, it wasn't Curry's fault that he went #4, and that needs to be acknowledged. But then Boling turns around and picks the wrong scapegoat: Curry's coaches.

Seahawks win thanks to who else? Jay Feely.

Andrew Luck. I was an unabashed supporter of the "suck for Luck" campaign, as hinted at by the photos I used in the charts. But looking at the last several years of NFL draft history, the team picking #1 overall averages just barely over 1 win a season. In other words, winning just one game can seriously jeopardize picking #1, the same way that losing just one game seriously jeopardizes a college football team finishing national champions. In college football, you lose one game, and you pretty much know its over unless you get very lucky. Before today, I would have given Seattle a 25% chance to pick 1st overall. Now, I'd put those odds at almost 0%. Assuming the Seahawks stand a meager 40% chance of winning and therefore a 60% chance of defeat on average, that means the odds of finishing 1-15 are a miniscule 0.1%. Even an 80% chance of defeat average still gives the team only a 0.5% chance. And even if Seattle beat the odds and did go 1-15, what if another team manages 0-16? 1-15 might not be enough.

Long story short, now is a good time to get off the "suck for Luck" bandwagon. I hear Matt Barkley is pretty good. Robert Griffin III might force his way into the conversation too. Luck would be a match made in heaven for Seattle, but landing his services probably isn't going to be "do or die."

Now that that's out of the way, lets talk about some Seahawks football:

-Today hardly had a playoff atmosphere, and I know some might even call it a "snoozer." But I personally found the back and forth struggle compelling throughout. Neither team held a lead bigger than 7 points, and the team that held that watermark lead ended up losing the game. Because of the tight nature of the game, the crowd stayed energized and active throughout. There was a weird mix of positive and negative energy. "Charlie" chants were faintly audible on the television broadcast, and the 12th man booed on several occasions. But they cheered a lot too, including on Tarvaris Jackson's game winning TD scramble. It was a weird game in which the fans almost seemed like they didn't know what to do, and in the hearts of some, may not even have known which team they really wanted to win. It was weird.

-Aaron Curry may not have started, but every time I watched the linebackers to get looks at KJ Wright, Curry was there in the SAM spot instead. The whole drama about Curry losing his job seems to be overblown. He and Wright alternated throughout the game. Finally, some real competition being used by Pete Carroll.

-The Seahawks once again gave up 4 sacks. Unlike previous times, I actually blame the offensive line more than Tarvaris Jackson. Jackson is slowly showing sings of increased comfort feeling pressure and navigating the pocket. He still needs to be better, but I'd say he's halfway there. Also, he finally showed some willingness to run the ball today, and I generally found most of his rushes to be wise decisions.

-John Moffitt seems to blow a block that leads to a sack almost every game. That continued today. Moffitt hasn't been a disaster, but he's solidly below average. Or pretty much exactly where you would expect a rookie 3rd round guard to be in his effectiveness. On most snaps, he's adequate, but he eventually needs to stop making 1-2 big mistakes a game. I don't know why, but I feel optimistic about Moffitt growing into a solid right guard some day. I think its because a mistake here and there can be corrected. Consistently terrible play snap for snap cannot.

-Marshawn Lynch averaged less than 4 yards per carry today, but he looked great doing it. He misread a few runs which turned into tackles for loss, and in particular he relied too much on a pretty bad blocking fullback. But for the most part, it was easy to notice that Lynch was hitting the hole fast, running with a lot of energy and carrying defenders for extra yards. He was sitting around 5 yards per carry entering the 4th quarter before a rough final frame dropped his average. I still don't think Lynch is the right back for this running game, but games like today made holding that opinion harder than usual.

-The first 7 and a half minutes of today's game was preempted by bonus coverage of the Lions overtime victory over the tragic Vikings. At least in the Portland area, anyway. If you missed it, its worth watching a highlight package for today's game because 4 minutes into the 1st quarter, before it was on TV, Earl Thomas had a sensational interception, and during the return, Kam Chancellor laid out a monster hit on Todd Heap. The pick was called back because of a penalty, but it was still a great play by our two young safeties.

-The Seahawks had 3 sacks today and brought decent pressure on most snaps. I'd like to see better, but today it was enough to throw Kevin Kolb off his game, resulting in the first poor performance of his Arizona career. The run defense was rock solid as well, limiting Arizona to 3.2 yards per carry and was impenetrable on short yardage situations.

-The more I watch our defense, the more I think of it as a weird version of the 3-4 instead of a 4-3. Like a 3-4, it has three huge lineman up front with 3 linebackers and then a 4th guy who plays on the line but is built more like a rush linebacker. A lot of the criticism for Pete's defense is the lack of pressure from a 4 man rush, because in a 4-3, front 4 pressure is critical. But in a 3-4 defense, front line pressure isn't expected and the rush comes from blitzers who can attack from anywhere. Seattle's defense is technically a 4-3, but the way it delivers pressure and stops the run is much more like the way a 3-4 operates.

-In a game where the Cardinals outgained the Seahawks by 63 yards, it was their own ineptness finishing drives and scoring points which sealed their fate. This was no more evident than Jay Feely's 1 for 3 performance, including him falling inexplicably short on a clutch 4th quarter kick to tie game. As you may recall, he's the same kicker who missed 3 game winners against Seattle in 2005. The latter two of which, both in overtime, also fell short.

-Brandon Browner had a strong game today I thought, doing well to keep Larry Fitzgerald from dominating the game. Browner did allow the Cardinals only touchdown, but he was in excellent position and really, I think it was more of a gutty throw and great catch by Fitz than a busted coverage. Browner could have made a play on the ball if he had looked for it, and Earl Thomas came only a couple inches short of intercepting it himself.

-Trufant's inteception was vintage stuff. Every now and then, Trufant shows glimpses of sub-elite ability. After Tru scared us with a horrible season in 2008, its good to see he's not slowing down as much as we thought he might.

-Overall, I thought the secondary played great today. Kolb was forced to check down quite a bit, and if not for a penalty, he would have been picked 3 times.

-Sidney Rice had a great debut, breaking 100 yards in his first game. He looked every bit as good as his stats indicated. Stay healthy dude.

-I know there are some who miss Matt Hasselbeck and wish that he were still here. You know who probably misses Hasselbeck the most? Mike Williams.

1-2 Chart

Courtesy of AdvancedNFLstats.com

Ten Quick Thoughts on ARI vs. SEA

1. Tarvaris Jackson has reportedly been getting urged to throw more trustingly, rather than waiting for 15-yard separation from a WR. Arizona's soft pass defense is ripe for a beating, so this game may make Jackson look better. Careful about being sucked in by one game against a bad defense.

2. The same goes for our run defense. The trend from last year - rolling along with inflated stats against bad rushing offenses and favorable game situations - is still there. The 94 yards and 2 TD's Seattle surrendered on 19 first-half Pittsburgh carries is probably a better picture of its true ability. Hate to be the bucket of cold water on that, but what are we more concerned about - its performance against the muck of the NFC West, or its performance against good teams of the kind we would face on the playoffs?

3. Chris Clemons is one to watch today. Cardinals LT Levi Brown had trouble with Clemons' quick first step last year, surrendering sacks even when whatever scrub Arizona was fielding at QB didn't hold onto the ball for the entire quarter. QB Kevin Kolb can neutralize this by getting the ball out quickly, which by all reports he'd been pretty solid at.

4. Have we gotten the obligatory "revenge factor" piece about Alan Branch playing against his former team yet? It'll probably be more like Colin Cole's "revenge" game against Green Bay, where he mentioned the motivation that "revenge" should give him and then went out and got crushed on the field. Alan Branch has been a non-factor on the Seahawks D-line so far but may get some action against Arizona's questionable O-line, like he did last year against Seattle. And then sink back into obscurity next week, which he did last year too. How many snaps did Clinton McDonald get in Pittsburgh?

5. Does anyone really expect Brandon Browner to accomplish anything against Larry Fitzgerald? Larry Fitzgerald? Come on. This won't be like last year, where Walter Thurmond looked good against him because he had Max Hall throwing the football.

6. Patrick Peterson could have his breakout day today.

7. Anyone else nervous about Sidney Rice trying to play through a torn labrum? One solid collision across the middle...

8. Zach Miller (and Seattle's microscopic passing game in general) could have a big day against gimpy Arizona linebackers Joey Porter and Daryl Washington.

9. Official prediction: Seattle scrapes by at home 26-20, prompting hope for Jackson and blowing the debate wide open again.

10. This game is a powder keg for Seattle's fan base. Should we lose, the fans will quickly distill into two extremist groups: the panic-depressive and the secretly relieved "Suck for Luck" crowd. The war will be long and arduous.

Why Rumors of Carroll-Schneider's Demise are Probably Greatly Exaggerated

We pre-empt your regularly scheduled viewing of "Five Things Pete Carroll Still Needs to Prove" to bring you this breaking news bulletin: Pro Football Weekly is jumping to conclusions Evil Knievel-style. Again.

Hub Arkush and Eric Edholm of PFW reported yesterday morning that the collaborative relationship between VPFO/head coach Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider "could be on rocky ground". The spate of offensive injuries and the subpar performance of the offensive line are reported to be a source of tension between the two, with each supposedly making personnel moves the other is displeased with.

This piece of substantiation is offered:

"I talked to one agent who had one of his free-agent clients shipped into Seattle, and when he got there, Pete Carroll said, 'What is he doing here? We don't need him for a football team.' That's just one example of personnel not matching up to what the coach wants to put on the field."

Some reasons why this report doesn't make sense:

1. That agent story is the only item of supporting information that's present in this whole thing. It's one piece, smacking of sensationalism to be quite honest, and the conclusions leaped to from that one exhibit are massive. This doesn't pass the basic strength-of-evidence test.

2. It doesn't offer a motive. Why would Pete Carroll, John Schneider, or anyone in their right mind be annoyed over the acquisition of Sidney Rice, Robert Gallery, or Zach Miller? Tarvaris Jackson I can see, but the other three are proven NFL veterans. We know Pete loves to niggle over his scheme, but that's not mentioned in enough detail here to provide any credibility.

3. It ignores the collaborative relationship in the VMAC. Carroll and Schneider, from all vantage points and by the claim of evey respectable journalist who's seen the process up close, are making decisions together. The PFW piece seems to operate under the assumption that the two are holed up in separate rooms doing their own thing.

4. It doesn't account for the participation of the coaching staff. Doug Farrar mentions that Carroll and Schneider chose to mine the past player connections of OC Darell Bevell and O-line coach Tom Cable in order to find some continuity to help the team after the lockout. Ergo, most of Seattle's offseason acquisitions on offense. James Carpenter and John Moffitt were also Cable picks. We can still debate the wisdom of those moves, but still, it's an easy alternative explanation to "Carroll and Schneider are just on different pages."

5. It's not as if Carroll and Schneider have always agreed on everything anyway. Charlie Whitehurst was largely Schneider's guy, having been on his radar for years before. Carroll supported the move all the way, but reading between the lines, one could easily conclude that it wasn't Carroll's idea. Which speaks to the strength of the collaboration, compromise, and united front that they're trying to build - all good signs of a strong relationship.

6. It doesn't jive with Carroll's history. It's implied that Carroll is upset over the injuries suffered by Sidney Rice and Robert Gallery. First of all, it would be pretty irrational of Pete to get frustrated over something as unpredictable as injuries, unless you think that Rice's torn labrum has something to do with the gimpy hip that sidelined him in Minnesota. They're kind of in different parts of the body. Second of all, even if there was injury history to point to, Carroll is hardly injury-shy. During the 2010 draft, he traded with the Jets for major player Leon Washington, sidelined by injury, shortly after drafting CB Walter Thurmond - a second-round talent knocked down a few rounds by injury - and pretty much cordoning off a starting spot for him, to the point of being willing to trade away the incumbent Josh Wilson. Both Washington and Thurmond had truly gruesome leg fractures to recover from, and Thurmond still isn't back. So Carroll doesn't exactly look afraid to gamble against injury, although it's true that Thurmond and Washington didn't cost that much either.

7. Too many other alternative explanations. This could be a frustrated Pete Carroll making frustrated comments that are being blown out of context. It could be a frustrated agent trying to dish on a front office who didn't sign his guy. It could be a couple of bored writers trying to dish on the worst team in the NFL. Teams like the Seahawks are always targets of rumor-mongering. Are these cynical and unsupported possibilities? Yes. But they're also consistent with the day-to-day NFL, and they prevent the "rocky ground" theory from sounding definitive.


In less fancy words, this sounds like bullcrap being made out of nothing. Near-pure speculation based on very little falsifiable information. Of course, that's certainly our hope, because the destruction of Carroll and Schneider's working relationship is hardly a good thing for an already-struggling franchise. So let's be aware of are bias. But still, I haven't seen anything that serves as a respectable red flag. The leap is just too big. So let's get back to our pasta. Nothing to see here.

Five Things Pete Carroll Has Proven

So someone named UltimateSeahawk included 17 Power in a recent poll for Top 5 independent Seahawks blogs. How my incoherent vomit wound up in the same company as Seahawks Draft Blog and Fieldgulls I don't know, but one thing caught my attention: amongst the guy's criteria is that good blogs should be neither overly optimistic or excessively negative. "I want something to look forward to," he wrote. "There is enough negativity directed towards the Seahawks in the national media. I don’t need that from a blog."

Between that and a recent poster at Seahawks.net (the source of much of my patronage) who said, "nobody both informs and depresses me about the Seahawk's current situation as well as Mr. Brandon Adams," I'm thinking it's high time for some positivity around here. What sports fan wants to wallow in pessimism all the time, however rational?

So, some good things about Pete Carroll. He's far from a sure thing in Seattle thus far, but it's not as if he's an unknown quantity or an abject failure yet either. There are things he's shown, encouraging things. Some of the credit here also belongs to GM John Schneider, but considering how prominent Pete is in the organization, you can't avoid crediting him as well.