Prior to 2010, I read something from Rob Staton that captured the picture of Seattle's 2010 offense before it happened. Something about Seattle's 2010 offseason and how it didn't fit what new OC Jeremy Bates wanted to do on offense. I couldn't find the exact quote, but it went along the lines of: "The new emphasis on the deep ball will be good for the occasional explosive play, but there won't be a consistent scoring threat. You can't build an offense off that."
I've found that to be a fitting description of the Seahawks during Pete Carroll's inaugural year.
Seattle is not a good football team, on either side of the ball. Hasn't been for three years. It wasn't a good team in 2010 when it was gifted a playoff berth by the even-worse NFC West. Many of its greatest accomplishments, while exciting, came through circumstance and poor competition. 2009's abortion of a season got a lot of fans complaining that we never got any "lucky breaks", any favorable bounces of the football. Well, in 2010, those breaks came, and our record improved. But I can't say that statistically, fundamentally, or absolutely, that the 2010 team looked any better than the 2009 team.
Unpleasant as it may be, we have to start our discussion there, because there are deceiving appearances to cut through. The 2010 Seahawks did somehow look more EXCITING. There were bigger plays, long bombs, a few bruising runs, and a smattering of defensive turnovers. It looked like the promise of growth, but it wasn't enough.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
8/17 Tidbits: Danny O'Neill Chat
Yesterday's live chat with Danny O'Neill of the Seattle Times provided a few valuable nabobs, as usual. I love the smell of nabobs in the morning!
* CB Kelly Jennings chose the Seahawks over other teams offering multi-year deals. That speaks to his confidence in making this roster. I've tried to give Kelly Jennings a fair shot (and so has this guy), but eurgh. (But Danny makes a good point: wherever he ends up on the depth chart, his presence assures better depth than Nate Ness.)
* Tanking a season for a franchise QB is philosophically counter-productive, not guaranteed to succeed, and historically unnecessary anyway. Trifecta.
* Tarvaris Jackson defenders citing his minimal practice time and lack of receivers, can add this to their repertoire: he was facing a pass-rush-happy San Diego team that Seattle had not specifically game-planned for.
* Danny doesn't see John Carlson fetching more than a 6th or 7th-rounder in trade, a return probably be outweighed by his potential one-year production alongside Zach Miller. I agree, though I suspect Schneider is more addicted to draft picks than Danny allows.
* Baffled by the fact that CB Brandon Browner hasn't been noticed by the league. Skepticism suggests there's probably a reason. But after consistent praise from camp watchers whose analysis I respect, I'll reserve judgment.
* Likes S Jeron Johnson, whose roster chances are probably doomed by the newly signed Atari Bigby.
* Suggested Kam Chancellor might blitz more.
* Red Bryant is trying to slim down a bit.
* Four words: Screen passes to Leon. (Two more: Yes, please.)
* Pass protection might be an issue.
* Justin Forsett missed the San Diego game because of neck stiffness. Reassuring.
* CB Kelly Jennings chose the Seahawks over other teams offering multi-year deals. That speaks to his confidence in making this roster. I've tried to give Kelly Jennings a fair shot (and so has this guy), but eurgh. (But Danny makes a good point: wherever he ends up on the depth chart, his presence assures better depth than Nate Ness.)
* Tanking a season for a franchise QB is philosophically counter-productive, not guaranteed to succeed, and historically unnecessary anyway. Trifecta.
* Tarvaris Jackson defenders citing his minimal practice time and lack of receivers, can add this to their repertoire: he was facing a pass-rush-happy San Diego team that Seattle had not specifically game-planned for.
* Danny doesn't see John Carlson fetching more than a 6th or 7th-rounder in trade, a return probably be outweighed by his potential one-year production alongside Zach Miller. I agree, though I suspect Schneider is more addicted to draft picks than Danny allows.
* Baffled by the fact that CB Brandon Browner hasn't been noticed by the league. Skepticism suggests there's probably a reason. But after consistent praise from camp watchers whose analysis I respect, I'll reserve judgment.
* Likes S Jeron Johnson, whose roster chances are probably doomed by the newly signed Atari Bigby.
* Suggested Kam Chancellor might blitz more.
* Red Bryant is trying to slim down a bit.
* Four words: Screen passes to Leon. (Two more: Yes, please.)
* Pass protection might be an issue.
* Justin Forsett missed the San Diego game because of neck stiffness. Reassuring.
Monday, August 15, 2011
On Tarvaris Jackson, Part 3
Part 1: Low expectations for Tarvaris Jackson.
Part 2: Why he was still Seattle's optimal choice at QB.
First off: I am posting numbers comparing Tarvaris Jackson against Matt Hasselbeck, not to start more anger or debate about Hasselbeck's decision to go elsewhere, but because many here are very familiar with the progression of his career and the improvement he began to show in year 4 of it.
Tarvaris Jackson and the recently departed Great Bald One have some astounding similarities to their careers. All the following stats are from the first 4 years of Matt's career and the first 5 of Tarvaris'. This is because the number of attempts are roughly similar.
Tarvaris Jackson has had 603 passing attempts for his entire 5 year career. People can get hung up on the number of years he has had in the league, but in reality 603 attempts is a season and a half for many quarterbacks, and barely more than a season for some. Philip Rivers had 541 attempts last season, and Peyton Manning had 679. Point is, Jackson is young in the area of experience, and he shows promise. And a couple of big negatives.
Part 2: Why he was still Seattle's optimal choice at QB.
First off: I am posting numbers comparing Tarvaris Jackson against Matt Hasselbeck, not to start more anger or debate about Hasselbeck's decision to go elsewhere, but because many here are very familiar with the progression of his career and the improvement he began to show in year 4 of it.
Tarvaris Jackson and the recently departed Great Bald One have some astounding similarities to their careers. All the following stats are from the first 4 years of Matt's career and the first 5 of Tarvaris'. This is because the number of attempts are roughly similar.
Tarvaris Jackson has had 603 passing attempts for his entire 5 year career. People can get hung up on the number of years he has had in the league, but in reality 603 attempts is a season and a half for many quarterbacks, and barely more than a season for some. Philip Rivers had 541 attempts last season, and Peyton Manning had 679. Point is, Jackson is young in the area of experience, and he shows promise. And a couple of big negatives.
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Three Seahawks Vulnerable to Trade
I wrote "vulnerable" because a) it's a unique word that oughta grab attention from the Google bots, and b) because it hopefully makes clear that this piece is laid-back speculation, not whisper-driven rumor. Nobody, including myself, has any inkling of these trades actually being imminent.Anyway...when Pete Carroll and John Schneider burst onto the scene last year, they wasted no time in getting their program going. Leftovers from the previous regime were suddenly prime trade bait. QB Seneca Wallace, DE Darryl Tapp, and G Rob Sims were traded away before the draft; DE Lawrence Jackson and CB Josh Wilson during preseason; WR Deion Branch in October. Each fetched Seattle relatively paltry draft picks.
Not all these moves were popular, but there was a clear connecting link. The Seahawks were now guided by Carroll's philosophies at every position, and anyone belonging to the previous regime was subject to close scrutiny. Having modest value to the team didn't keep you safe; it just made you prone to being traded.
This was especially true for guys coming up on the end of their contracts. Wallace, Sims, and Wilson were all traded with a year left to play for Seattle; Jackson and Branch, two years. They signed Tapp to an RFA tender the day before trading him. Schneider was scrounging for any value he could get out of misfit players rather than letting them walk for nothing as free agents. Even if that meant jettisoning players who could still help the team for the present - and being forced to keep other misfit players in their stead because they had no trade value.
I bring up this phenomenon because we may yet see more of it. The pattern behind Seattle's recent trades inspired me to comb the current roster for guys who a) will soon hit free agency, b) are redundant and/or a scheme misfit, and c) could command any kind of value on the trade market.
17
comments
Labels:
Deon Butler,
John Carlson,
John Schneider,
Justin Forsett,
Seahawks,
Seattle,
trade
Labels:
Deon Butler,
John Carlson,
John Schneider,
Justin Forsett,
Seahawks,
Seattle,
trade
Friday, August 12, 2011
San Diego in Perspective
I didn't actually watch the game last night, so I won't pretend to offer any direct observations. I'm mostly relying on what everyone else saw, which seems to be a convenient consensus. But I do think there's a lot of perspective to be had.
* The first, applicable to almost everything, is that the lockout royally screwed Seattle. And any other teams in any kind of offensive transition or rebuild. The lockout was always going to favor established QB's and their schemes. All they had to do was knock the rust off their pre-existing system, whereas Seattle, St. Louis, San Franci...umm, yep, pretty much the entire NFC West...is learning a new system and had very little training camp to do it.
The lockout was also bound to handicap incoming rookies. It shouldn't surprise anyone that James Carpenter might have a much longer curve to competence than most rookies.
So the fact that Philip Rivers looked well on his way to hanging 40 points on Seattle before hitting the bench...that shouldn't surprise or discourage anyone. The Chargers are a perennial offensive juggernaut. The Seahawks are midstream in their fording of the imposing river of offensive change, led by a brand-new QB. The first quarter between the two was quite predictable, and not necessarily predictive of the season at all.
So...chill pills.
* Tarvaris Jackson was also missing all his starting wide receivers, leaving him with Golden Tate and a bunch of (somewhat bright) camp scrubs. That should be included in our calculations, and it should mean something coming from me, Mr. I Don't Make Excuses For Quarterbacks, Take Charge or Sit Down.
* That said, some of the problems Jackson showed yesterday were fundamental, not circumstantial. You don't have to be equipped with Larry Fitzgerald, Lee Evans, Andre Johnson, and the Seahawks' 2005 O-line to know that you should step UP in the pocket when pressured - not back ten yards, right into the sights of that rampaging bull-rusher. Poor pocket poise, holding on to the ball, inaccuracy - let's hope he improves with more than a week's worth of practice time.
* For those bashing the Okung bashers...there IS such a thing as an "injury bust". It may not be his fault, but it doesn't make him any less a bust at this point. Let's see if he recovers quickly.
* Josh Portis shook off his nerves quickly and responded with an impressive performance. It was admittedly against third-stringers, and so should be taken with a grain elevator of salt. But it wasn't just a strong drive that he showed. Poise, downfield awareness, good timing on his throws, and just that indefinable air of being in command of the offense. The coaching staff should definitely keep developing this guy.
* The offensive line looks like what I expected it to - nasty and strong in run protection, iffy in pass protection. Nice pull block from John Moffitt to punch Leon in for his TD.
* Doug Baldwin is becoming this season's unanimous preseason hero. I'm skeptical by default of UDFA's, but stars do come from there - Tony Romo and James Harrison, for example. Good routes, good hands, good separation - nice find, Pete.
* The deep ball to Kelly Jennings wasn't all on him - Josh Pinkard blew his half of the coverage. Safety help is what you should be looking for every time a corner gets beat deep. But that doesn't stop the throw from being yet another verse in the long, slow song of Jennings' inability to cover any receiver taller than 5'10". When that's your #2 corner, you need an upgrade.
* Browner may be the answer. He looked great out there at game speed. However, he first needs to prove that he can play aggressive without drawing three pass-interference flags a game. If he's that undisciplined, the penalty yards he'll give up will make him just as much a liability as Jennings.
* Thomas Clayton reminds me of Julius Jones - no redeeming quality about his game, just a few big runs sprinkled between stuffs. The result is a YPC average that makes him look more effective than he really is.
* Leon Washington definitely being assimilated into this offense. That's big. His "orientation snaps" may be the only reason Justin Forsett sat out.
* Kam Chancellor built upon his solid camp performance. He needs to be starter-ready.
* Several defensive rookies stepped up. K.J. Wright, Malcolm Smith, Pep Levingston, and Pierre Allen made the most of their time, contributing decisive plays.
* Alan Branch was said by some to look slow and sluggish out there. That's one dude everyone should be keeping an eye on.
* SEAHAWKS WON! If you can't get excited about that, even in the preseason, there's something wrong with you.
(Whitehurst comments in a later article.)
* The first, applicable to almost everything, is that the lockout royally screwed Seattle. And any other teams in any kind of offensive transition or rebuild. The lockout was always going to favor established QB's and their schemes. All they had to do was knock the rust off their pre-existing system, whereas Seattle, St. Louis, San Franci...umm, yep, pretty much the entire NFC West...is learning a new system and had very little training camp to do it.
The lockout was also bound to handicap incoming rookies. It shouldn't surprise anyone that James Carpenter might have a much longer curve to competence than most rookies.
So the fact that Philip Rivers looked well on his way to hanging 40 points on Seattle before hitting the bench...that shouldn't surprise or discourage anyone. The Chargers are a perennial offensive juggernaut. The Seahawks are midstream in their fording of the imposing river of offensive change, led by a brand-new QB. The first quarter between the two was quite predictable, and not necessarily predictive of the season at all.
So...chill pills.
* Tarvaris Jackson was also missing all his starting wide receivers, leaving him with Golden Tate and a bunch of (somewhat bright) camp scrubs. That should be included in our calculations, and it should mean something coming from me, Mr. I Don't Make Excuses For Quarterbacks, Take Charge or Sit Down.
* That said, some of the problems Jackson showed yesterday were fundamental, not circumstantial. You don't have to be equipped with Larry Fitzgerald, Lee Evans, Andre Johnson, and the Seahawks' 2005 O-line to know that you should step UP in the pocket when pressured - not back ten yards, right into the sights of that rampaging bull-rusher. Poor pocket poise, holding on to the ball, inaccuracy - let's hope he improves with more than a week's worth of practice time.
* For those bashing the Okung bashers...there IS such a thing as an "injury bust". It may not be his fault, but it doesn't make him any less a bust at this point. Let's see if he recovers quickly.
* Josh Portis shook off his nerves quickly and responded with an impressive performance. It was admittedly against third-stringers, and so should be taken with a grain elevator of salt. But it wasn't just a strong drive that he showed. Poise, downfield awareness, good timing on his throws, and just that indefinable air of being in command of the offense. The coaching staff should definitely keep developing this guy.
* The offensive line looks like what I expected it to - nasty and strong in run protection, iffy in pass protection. Nice pull block from John Moffitt to punch Leon in for his TD.
* Doug Baldwin is becoming this season's unanimous preseason hero. I'm skeptical by default of UDFA's, but stars do come from there - Tony Romo and James Harrison, for example. Good routes, good hands, good separation - nice find, Pete.
* The deep ball to Kelly Jennings wasn't all on him - Josh Pinkard blew his half of the coverage. Safety help is what you should be looking for every time a corner gets beat deep. But that doesn't stop the throw from being yet another verse in the long, slow song of Jennings' inability to cover any receiver taller than 5'10". When that's your #2 corner, you need an upgrade.
* Browner may be the answer. He looked great out there at game speed. However, he first needs to prove that he can play aggressive without drawing three pass-interference flags a game. If he's that undisciplined, the penalty yards he'll give up will make him just as much a liability as Jennings.
* Thomas Clayton reminds me of Julius Jones - no redeeming quality about his game, just a few big runs sprinkled between stuffs. The result is a YPC average that makes him look more effective than he really is.
* Leon Washington definitely being assimilated into this offense. That's big. His "orientation snaps" may be the only reason Justin Forsett sat out.
* Kam Chancellor built upon his solid camp performance. He needs to be starter-ready.
* Several defensive rookies stepped up. K.J. Wright, Malcolm Smith, Pep Levingston, and Pierre Allen made the most of their time, contributing decisive plays.
* Alan Branch was said by some to look slow and sluggish out there. That's one dude everyone should be keeping an eye on.
* SEAHAWKS WON! If you can't get excited about that, even in the preseason, there's something wrong with you.
(Whitehurst comments in a later article.)
Thursday, August 11, 2011
Injury List vs SD
Injury scratches for the first preseason contest against San Diego (kickoff in 30 mins):
Wide receiver
Deon Butler
Mike Williams
Sidney Rice
Kris Durham
Ben Obomanu
Cornerback
Walter Thurmond
Roy Lewis
Defensive line
Chris Clemons
Red Bryant
Colin Cole
Kentwan Balmer
Dexter Davis
Ryan Sims
Jay Alford
Tight end
Cameron Morrah
Caz Piurowski
I'm not worried about this at all. Thanks to the lockout, the players are playing far colder and rustier than they normally would be. I'd expect teams to treat even the slightest injury like an unexploded bomb and just rest the player, especially this early in the preseason.
Our starting WR corps (in order of likelihood to make the 53) is Golden Tate, Paul Baldwin, Isaiah Stanback, and Ricardo Lockette. Interesting. With that kind of development opportunity, these guys will have much less of an excuse for poor performance. Tate, in my opinion, needs to be out there for an entire half at least. This many WR "injuries" is good for both the starters and the underdogs.
The absence of Bryant should give us a thorough look at Pierre Allen. Also a good thing. Kid is tantalizing.
Wide receiver
Deon Butler
Mike Williams
Sidney Rice
Kris Durham
Ben Obomanu
Cornerback
Walter Thurmond
Roy Lewis
Defensive line
Chris Clemons
Red Bryant
Colin Cole
Kentwan Balmer
Dexter Davis
Ryan Sims
Jay Alford
Tight end
Cameron Morrah
Caz Piurowski
I'm not worried about this at all. Thanks to the lockout, the players are playing far colder and rustier than they normally would be. I'd expect teams to treat even the slightest injury like an unexploded bomb and just rest the player, especially this early in the preseason.
Our starting WR corps (in order of likelihood to make the 53) is Golden Tate, Paul Baldwin, Isaiah Stanback, and Ricardo Lockette. Interesting. With that kind of development opportunity, these guys will have much less of an excuse for poor performance. Tate, in my opinion, needs to be out there for an entire half at least. This many WR "injuries" is good for both the starters and the underdogs.
The absence of Bryant should give us a thorough look at Pierre Allen. Also a good thing. Kid is tantalizing.
Lockout Hangover: Cornerback, Part 2
I was initially stumped back in April when Seattle elected to blow a second straight late draft on defensive backs. CB Richard Sherman, FS Mark Legree, CB Byron Maxwell all became Seahawks, even as defensive tackle remained a gaping wound on the defense. It looked as if Carroll and Schneider's priorities were backwards. Secondary before pass rush? That's not how it works. Let the QB stand in the pocket for long enough, and even the best secondary will be exposed. QB pressure, on the other hand, helps that secondary.
However, it can also work the other way around. No matter how quick off the snap your defensive line is, it's going to take them at least a couple seconds to reach the QB. Offenses have developed the quick-rhythm passing game to exploit those first seconds - getting the ball out before pressure arrives. It depends on receivers being able to get a clean release off the line of scrimmage and quickly flash open.
So those first couple seconds are part of the game as well. The most obvious solution: jam the receivers right off the snap. Throw off their timing and the QB has a harder time dumping the ball off, giving pass rushers more time.
However, it can also work the other way around. No matter how quick off the snap your defensive line is, it's going to take them at least a couple seconds to reach the QB. Offenses have developed the quick-rhythm passing game to exploit those first seconds - getting the ball out before pressure arrives. It depends on receivers being able to get a clean release off the line of scrimmage and quickly flash open.
So those first couple seconds are part of the game as well. The most obvious solution: jam the receivers right off the snap. Throw off their timing and the QB has a harder time dumping the ball off, giving pass rushers more time.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)