On the Possible Re-Signing of Marshawn Lynch

TNT reported this week that reps for RB Marshawn Lynch have reached out to the Seahawks for discussions over a multi-year contract. Lynch has accrued enough playing time this year to trigger a contract provision voiding the final year of his contract, making him a free-agent after this season.

So why are we feeling hesitant about this re-signing?

It's been a while since the phrases "Seattle Seahawks", "new contract negotiations", and "running back" were all mentioned in the same sentence. The last time they were, the result wasn't pretty. Shaun Alexander took the money and didn't run. Are we gun-shy over running backs from this?

The debate over the reasons for Alexander's dropoff is irrelevant and tired. It happened. In fact, it may be more instructive to leave that discussion open, because it highlights the fact that player decline can occur for a variety of reasons. Loss of surrounding talent, injury, wearing down, coaching changes, being too happy-go-lucky, New Contract Syndrome - everything under the sun has been named as a cause of Alexander's sputtering out, and every one of them has a legitimate place in the discussion.

When the 2011 season opened, Marshawn Lynch was undoubtedly one of the most popular Seahawks on the roster, courtesy of this. He was also one of the most likely-to-disappoint Seahawks. He was entering 2011 behind a straight-out-of-the-box offensive line, a new coach, and a fresh offensive philosophy that was going to demand a lot from him. Despite his physical, unrelenting, passionate running style, Lynch hadn't shown enough raw production in 2010 to make anyone think he'd transcend the line's growing pains and lack of offseason preparation. The QB situation certainly wasn't going to help. It wasn't a formula for success. Despite "The Run", many saw another frustrating season ahead for Lynch.

Seahawks out-raven Ravens, win shocker

The face of a man burned by false praise turned true.

I'm not a big dating expert, but one thing even I've heard is that its best to "just be yourself" when you go on a big date.  Well the Seahawks were themselves today in all their goofy, awkward glory, and still scored big.  They couldn't finish drives.  They had many "almost" touchdowns that weren't.  They were penalized.  Often. Oh man, so often that it almost certainly will vault them into the #1 spot in the league.  They moved the ball well, yet nearly had as many penalties as first downs.  

But they won.  More importantly, the Hawks actually earned this win.  They never trailed today in a season in which they had never previously led at halftime.  Seattle won with an emerging run blocking offensive line, a strong run defense, a steadfast if unspectacular quarterback, and a special young secondary.  Seattle won despite having almost zero pass rush, and despite killing drives, and extending others, with inexplicable penalties.  They beat a 6-2 team, a 6-2 team that most likely would have been in the AFC championship last year if not for some shady officiating.  They outplayed a good team, but interestingly enough, they outplayed the very team for which the Seahawks model most closely resembles.

I wrote this article about the Seahawks-Ravens just after the 2011 draft over at Seahawks Draft Blog.  Seattle has invested two firsts, a third, traded late round picks for two players, and signed a high profile free agent all on just the offensive line alone in only two years.  They have built an elite rush defense out of spare parts, and while they have invested less in the defense than the Ravens did, the almost over-the-top investment in the line is remarkably similar.  So what did the Ravens do after that?  They traded for a former 1st round running back drafted by the Bills (sound familiar?), then drafted a "reach" quarterback in the middle first, and drafted a 2nd round running back who'd become one of the most productive backs in the NFL.  Everyone fretting about the long term quarterback or running back situation, don't be worried.  Help is coming.

I did not think Seattle would successfully adopt the Ravens blueprint this quickly.  Seattle's interior run blocking has been on a tear for the second game in a row, and Seattle's secondary, particularly Richard Sherman, is possessed.  Seattle flat out kicked the Raven's asses today at smash mouth football.  Not many teams can do that.

• Harbaugh called Marshawn Lynch one of the three best backs in the NFL before the game.  Harbaugh is a brilliant coach, but a statement like that can only be one of three things: a ridiculously exaggerated compliment typically used for psychological purposes, a sincere/moronic evaluation, or a subtle-sarcastic dig at a running back who has struggled for most of the past three years.  Whatever his intentions were, Seattle's running game strove to make his statement look timely.  Was he being sincere?  I don't know.  I'm betting its sincere now.

• Maybe the toughest thing about switching to the NFC is that I only get a maximum of two games a year called by the announcing crews over at CBS.  Greg Gumble is a long tenured, quality professional.  Dan Dierdorf is a rare dual Hall of Famer:  in the Hall as an offensive lineman, and in the Hall for his work behind the mic.  He's intelligent enough to avoid cliches and even provide quality insights.  When Heath Farwell appeared to do the disastrous by touching the football surrounded by Ravens players, and almost everyone in the building had no idea what was going on, Dierdorf didn't miss a beat, pointing out that a batted ball is no longer live, even if a returning team touches it.

• But perhaps Dierdorf's best insight came early, when he pointed out that young teams tend to have especially erratic performances.  One of the hallmarks of insightful thinking is that it can point out the unspoken things that should be obvious.  And it turned out to be pretty prophetic, as Seattle gave Baltimore a lot more than they thought they'd be getting when they were catching their flight to SeaTac.  Last week, Seattle lost by two scores, but they made Dallas (an emerging team) work for every bit of it.  Afterwards, Tony Romo publicly breathed a sigh of relief and credited the Seahawks for being a far tougher opponent than the general public thinks.  Seahawks opponents have won 6 games in 9 tries, but they have not been an easy win very often.  And now two of the Seahawks three victories this year have come against teams that currently have winning records.

• The 12th man is the perfect mascot for the Seahawks, and really, the Pacific Northwest as a whole.  In relative terms, we are an isolated, shut in, um, unique people who don't get the attention we crave and deserve.  We have the dorkiest mascot, and some of the most awesomely dorky fans who are loud and proud.  Today I saw a man wearing an that strange 80's bird/rocker get up painted in the colors of the American Flag. Earlier in the year I saw another fan dressed up like Elton John, just because hey, who doesn't like Elton John right?  But today took the cake.  Easily, the greatest NFL "cosplay" of all time.  Predator-Seahawks fan, if you are reading this, thank you.  Seahawks logos in the eyeballs?  You have my eternal gratitude.

• Marshawn Lynch had a mixed performance, but it was far better than his 3.4 yards per carry stat would indicate.  Sure- twice he single-handedly lost yards with terrible running decisions, and on a few occasions he missed gaping wide cutback lanes.  But those mistakes were exceptions in a day when he was mostly decisive, and with a line that was consistently getting good interior push, he was getting 3-4 yards a crack on the majority of his runs.  That isn't sexy, but that's what the zone blocking scheme is meant to do.  He also added 58 yards on 5 receptions.  It was a very Steven Jackson type of performance.  I still think Seattle can do better.  But I think we are finally beginning to see the Marshawn Lynch Seattle thought they were trading for.  He's not a star, but he can be a useful player when he plays decisively.

• My gameball goes to Seattle's interior line.  Unger and Gallery were constantly found four yards downfield and even John Moffitt made a few nice plays before leaving with injury.  His replacement, Jeanpierre, seemed to do an admirable job under the circumstances, and Seattle's interior push resumed without missing a beat when Moffitt left the game.

• Richard Sherman has now had three strong games in the three starts.  He has ball skills.  He can cover.  He can hit.  A home run for a 5th round pick.

• I hope Kam Chancellor is alright after decapitating himself.  Chancellor is my new favorite Seahawk, but he must learn to lead with the shoulder consistently.  Not because of ethical reasons.  Not because of penalties.  But for his own health and career.  Hopefully his injury does not linger and color the rest of his playing days, but this needs to be a learning experience.

• The penalties became ridiculous near the end, and it was fascinating to watch the 12th man slowly turn on their own team as the infractions became more and more incomprehensible.  On one hand, Seattle is a young team that plays with an attitude.  Its part of what makes Seattle an exciting team to watch.  Curbing those penalties would be great, but they are a bi-product of the things that help make this team exciting.  Can Carroll reduce the penalties with having his team lose its aggressive edge?  It might be the biggest challenge he'll face with the current roster.

Is the worst "player" on Seattle's offense Darrell Bevell?

When it comes to NFL playcallers, perception rarely matches reality. Fans are not the only ones bothered by offensive coordinators' tendencies and proclivities; perhaps no other coaching position is as prone to staff turnover as offensive signal caller. Mr. Jeremy Bates to the white courtesy phone...

From the well-publicized snafus in Washington DC when Zorn had his playcalling duties stripped and was effectively both neutered, spayed, and publicly pantsed as a coach, to the well-publicized annual changing of the offensive coordinator that many blame for Alex Smith's woes, to the still-strong hatred of Greg Knapp in all places Seahawk, second-guessing signal callers is a wonderful pastime seemingly enjoyed by all - except of course, signal callers. Mike Holmgren often was praised for his play calling genius, but 3rd and long draw plays still make Seattle fans far and wide reflexively wince while invoking the Walrus' name in vain. Being a play caller ain't no joke.

Offensively, Seattle is struggling. The 'Hawks have wasted two consecutive defensive performances worthy of a win, and Seattle played well enough defensively against the Cowboys to win that game as well. It felt early on that Seattle was dodging bullets Matrix style, but the run defense cleaned up its act well enough to make sure the 'Boys didn't scamper away. 23 points shouldn't feel insurmountable, but it did. There is simply no confidence in an offense that has no trouble racking yards, but seemingly goes cross-eyed nearly every time it nears the opponents 30. The popular theory has been the offensive line, but they had an above average performance on Sunday, and it didn't change much.

Does any, or even most, of the failure hang on Darrell Bevell?

Props for Seahawks O-line, Running Game

The insightful Ben Muth of Football Outsiders has some praise for the Seahawks offensive line. At least, I think it's praise for the Seahawks O-line. I can't be sure. It's been so long since I've seen it, I've forgotten what it looks like.

Additionally, a member of the NWSportsTalk forum recently broke down our running plays against the Cowboys specifically and pointed out some encouraging trends - better zone-blocking coordination, more decisiveness from Lynch, less negative plays, consistent yardage instead of one big run boosting an otherwise bland YPC.

In the wake of what could be a breakthrough performance for this line against Dallas - which is something O-line coach Tom Cable apparently insisted upon, to the point of affecting the game plan - some national recognition for this line is in order. Two rookies, two sophomores, and a 30-year-old all thrown into the same system without a full offseason is not a recipe for success, but Cable has made strides with this line.

Russell Okung's slow start has given way to steadiness and a decent stonewalling of DeMarcus Ware. Robert Gallery, though now jumped upon for one bad play where he was tossed about like a rag doll, contributed heavily to Marshawn Lynch's strong day and gets some technical kudos from Muth for his usage of his hands and feet. Max Unger, while still possessing some lingering strength issues, has shown definite improvement from his awful rookis year - at the very least, he's no longer living in his own backfield. Muth's criticisms of him seem related to his decision-making. John Moffitt is developing. James Carpenter - well, he's a rookie. Seattle is continuing to keep our tight ends home to help block, which would normally be considered a hamstring to our passing game. But with Tarvaris Jackson needing every extra pocket second he can get in order to overthrow people, the current TE policy evens out.

I find it interesting that almost our entire offensive line seems assembled for the run. Unger is much better at moving around and landing blocks than he is holding back the tide on the line. Moffitt comes from a powerhouse running game at Wisconsin. Carpenter, also mainly a road-grader specimen. It means that Carroll isn't kidding when he says he's determined to make the run game a prominent feature of this offense. But if Unger was able to develop from an entirely overmatched rookie to a solid sophomore, Carpenter could pull it off as well.

Enjoy the link. We could use every ounce of positive development news we can get.

Seahawks fall to 2-6, yet still 2nd place in NFC West Dystopia.

Not satisfied with a mere forced fumble, Sherman adds The People's Elbow

I think its remarkable how predictable and short sighted sports writers can be sometimes.  One talking point that is quickly gaining traction is that Pete Carroll doesn't look like he's having fun anymore, or that he's just a college coach.  And to be sure, the Seahawks played well below their capabilities today, and losing stings, especially for emotional types like Carroll.

But lost in this dialogue is that Seattle rushed for 162 yards today, only 1 yard less than Dallas, who has emerging phenom DeMarco Murray at running back.  Seattle finished with a highly respectable 381 yards of total offense, despite the fact that Tarvaris Jackson was clearly having an off day.  Believe it or not, Seattle actually finished with more yards today than they did in the Falcons' game.

Before I get too far ahead of myself, I have to take a step back and be honest: this game didn't feel competitive.  I acknowledge that.  So for many fans reading this, I would understand if your reaction was "Bullshit! The Seahawks sucked today."  My counter would be that sometimes games are closer than they feel.  For example, The Cowboys game in 2004 when Seattle did nothing for the first 58 minutes yet still won thanks to a late scoring drive and a last second Babineaux interception to set up a Josh Brown 50 yard game winner.  I don't want to diminish the fact that the Cowboy's earned this victory, but this game might have been very different if not for a pair of controversial booth replays going against Seattle, or if Seattle hadn't blown coverage on Jason Witten for his easy touchdown.  Seattle's two biggest contributors (the defense and Jackson) both had off days, and yet Seattle could have maybe pulled out a cheap one if a few breaks had gone differently.  Or to put it differently, this defeat wasn't quite as emphatic as it felt.

Anyway, off to the bullet points!

• At the halfway point of the season, the Seahawks are on pace for a 4-12 season, yet are amazingly still in 2nd place. Football outsiders advanced DVOA playoffs oddsmaking currently gives the San Francisco 49ers a 1 in 1000 chance of missing the postseason, and the season is only half over!  For a division so bad, you would think it would be more competitive.

• This was the worst statistical performance of the season for Tarvaris Jackson, which is even more damning since his line did a better than expected job at protecting him, allowing just 1 sack and relatively few pressures.  Jackson has converted me into a defender of his with his recent performances, but games like this, even if only occasional, make doing so difficult.  Jackson's TD/INT ratio now sits at 6/9, and even since the Falcon's game when Jackson seemed to click in the offense, he's been running a 4/7 ratio since then.   

• One of those interceptions was a massive fluke: an intentional incompletion attempt that somehow deflected off of two defensive linemen before being intercepted by a third. Another interception was an underthrown ball when Jackson was being chased out of the pocket.  His final interception was the controversial simultaneous catch that went to the defender.  Jackson had some excuses today, but this was still a poor performance.  Unlike last week, his receivers didn't drop a ton of passes and his line provided protection. 

• Despite those mistakes, Jackson still managed a 7.4 YPA and was actually adept at moving the ball and engineering long drives.  Seattle averaged 6.2 yards per play which is one of their better numbers this season.  I think its encouraging that Seattle's quarterback played poorly, and yet the system was still able to shine through that.  It makes you wonder just how bad Charlie Whitehurst has really been.

• The story of this game, from Seattle's perspective, was the great performance by Marshawn Lynch.  I almost wrote an article this week on Lynch, and now I'm kicking myself for not doing it.  I took a closer look at Lynch last week, and what I discovered is that Lynch's only real problem is his lack of decisiveness.  He's still a great athlete with about as much speed as he's ever had.  It helps that Seattle made his job easy today with some great run blocking, but in both the Giants game and today, we've seen that a decisive, aggressive Marshawn Lynch is still a good running back.  Lynch managed 5.9 yards per carry and was impressively consistent in going about it.

• Despite TV commentators insisting that Dallas had trouble stopping the run this year, the Cowboys actually entered this game with the 10th ranked run defense in the NFL as measured by DVOA.  Seattle's offensive line, particularly Max Unger and Robert Gallery, had a terrific day getting inside push.  Unger is having a much better season than I expected.  Its shocking I know, but it turns out Tom Cable knows a bit more than I do about building an offensive line.  Unger's success after being atrocious in his rookie season is yet another reminder of why we should avoid freaking out about the struggles of John Moffitt and James Carpenter.

• Russell Okung is quietly having another good season in 2011.  I'm glad that the Fox crew showered him and Miller with plenty of attention today for the job they did on Ware.

• Miller may not be putting up huge yards, but he's a threat to on every play, and bringing the kind of blocking he does in combination with that threat makes him worth every penny.  Rice may not break 1000 yards this year, but similarly he's another guy that's outplaying whatever his statistics say.  Alan Branch has been Red Bryant moved inside, which is to say he's been valuable in an unusual manner.

• Jason Witten scored an easy touchdown when two Seahawks defenders converged on him and both released, perhaps believing the other would take coverage.  I don't know who holds schematic responsibility on that play, but Hawthorne was in excellent position before he suddenly gave up.

• Richard Sherman had another nice game, this time forcing a clutch fumble at the goal line to keep Seattle in the game.  I missed a good chunk of the first half, but Sherman seemed to play good coverage, and I love the physical presence, almost like that of a strong safety, that both he and Browner bring.

• On the Jason Witten catch challenge and Doug Baldwin "simultaneous catch" reviews, it highlighted to me a certain fact.  That fact being that while instant replay helps reduce human error, it will never cease to exist.  

• In the case of the Witten challenge and other blown replay reviews like it, I legitimately wonder if the video the refs are seeing in their replay booths is as extensive as the replays we see on television.  If its not, then I (not jokingly) believe that they should replace whatever replay their watching and just sub it for the broadcast feed.  Professional broadcasters have a knack for finding the perfect angle on plays like that, and my only explaination for the Witten decision was that the ref was not provided with some of the angles we saw on television.

• In the case of the Baldwin decision, A: in isolation, it did not matter as the game was over anyway, and B: while I think the ref technically got the call wrong, I understand his reasoning.  Though technically a simultaneous catch, the ball was in the defender's body, not Baldwin's, and it also appeared that Baldwin arrived a split second after the defender had begun to secure the ball.  It "felt" like an interception that Baldwin was trying to get cute with, even if the facts suggest a reasonable case for a simultaneous catch, which always goes to the receiver.

• Finally, I wouldn't be too upset about how the rush defense played today.  DeMarco Murray had 327 yards on only 33 carries in his previous two games: an average YPC nearing 10.  To say he's been sensational would be an understatement.  Today he averaged 6.3, which very well could end up below his season average.

Ten Quick Thoughts on SEA @ DAL

Only in Seattle would we be talking about "trap games" right after a two-game losing streak, but I think the phrase is apt as we approach a road contest in Dallas against the Cowboys. Ten quick observations:

1. "America's Team" is sitting at 3-4 and appears to be struggling, but appearances could be deceiving. Dallas opened the season with some close games against a brutal schedule, never losing by more than four points against the Jets, Lions, or Patriots. Last week they were buried to the tune of 34-7 by a Philly offense much more dynamic and interesting than Seattle's. The closest analogy to the Seahawks on Dallas' schedule is the Rams, whom Dallas dismantled 34-7 themselves.

Five Things Pete Carroll Still Needs to Prove

Youth is catching up to the Seahawks. Last year's early success, memorable mostly for its improbable defeat of the Chargers and Bears, is not being repeated. The players are visibly upset, Pete Carroll looks mellower each week, and people are starting to wonder just how legitimate last year's underdog excellence was.

A tougher starting schedule is partly responsible for all this. Last year's opening six weeks were downright cotton-candy aside from the Chargers. This year we've faced two quality offenses, the 49ers defense, and two perennial laughingstock teams from Ohio who are actually showing hints of significance(???!?!?!?!).

But although there's enough promise on the team to seriously believe in a bright future, and the gutsy road win over the Giants was delicious, these struggles are on Pete Carroll - and not in a bad way. The lack of discipline, the rawness and inexperience...what we're really seeing here is the short-term penalty of Pete Carroll's early approach with the team. The immediate and almost reckless roster turnover, the concentration of all our youth and inexperience into the offensive line, so many new and unfamiliar players integrating at once...

This is what was always going to happen. The mistakes, frustration, and venting combined with the high-octane style of this coaching staff creating a weird mix of aggressive football and sloppy football. It's the flipside of high turnover, the downside of getting younger. This is exactly what a lot of folks wanted - misguided ideas from the Tim Ruskell era about veteran signings being bad, continuity being mistaken for stagnation, impatient demands for a fresh start. (Ruskell was fired deservedly, but gets a lot of criticism for the wrong reasons.)

Now, after two games of historically inept offense (and refereeing), Pete Carroll is drawing flak. Much of it, including a lively piece from the normally level-headed Mike Sando, revolves around Carroll's QB decisions (specifically not drafting Andy Dalton, which I'll deal with in a moment). I don't have a problem with flak. I think the coaches (and the fans) need to see it after all the un-earned goodwill floating around from last year's fluke, unrepeatable playoff run. But it has to be the right kind of flak.

Earlier this season I quantified what I thought were Carroll's successes as Seahawks head coach. Thus far, he's an effective motivator who gets high effort out of his players; a decent coaching recruiter; a committed developer of players; a financially savvy, future-minded decision-maker; and a never-say-die competitor who was enough of a believer to lead his team to an unforgettable playoff upset of the defending Super Bowl champions. All good things.

But not a single one of them automatically translates to a dynasty. The pessimist points out that in no other division in the history of the NFL would Carroll even have gotten a shot to beat the Saints, that last year's cinderella story was born of lucky bounces and bad competition, and that Carroll has yet to answer a stiff challenge from top-level opponents in the playoffs. Had the Rams finished one game better, would we all still be this gracious to this coaching staff?

This front office's strengths need to be tested in the fire of consistency before they will lead this team to contender status. The good management philosophies and player acquisition strategies need to turn into production and identity on the field. Here are five things I feel that Pete Carroll still needs to prove.